After Day 1

Well, remember how I said that Yahoo mail sucked?  Well, I finally got another batch of entries at about 7:30 tonight, and they were all date stamped as of this morning.  The good news is that we now have slightly more entries this year than we did last year.  It looks like we are going to have 68 total people.  Remember that last year we had 66, so congratulations everyone!

We also didn’t take too long to have our first upset of the season.  Kent State won the second game of the day as a 6.5 point underdog.  That is good for the 9 people that actually took them.  I was one of them, but at the time I didn’t know that they had never won a bowl game in the history of the school.  That’s pretty amazing to me.  Maybe we just didn’t have as many bowl games in the past.  Anyway, that win didn’t effect the actual point standings, since most people got 0 points for it.  Even the 9 people that did get it right, didn’t get many points.  Of all the possible picks people could make for various games, they had the 82^nd most points wagered on them (66 total).  The only 2 teams with lower points wagered on them are Miami-Ohio in the Lending Tree Bowl (55 points) and Oklahoma in the National Championship game (30 points).

Since the picks were pretty even across the bowls, the average sheet today won .99 games.  8 people unfortunately didn’t get either game correct.  The average sheet today got 15.94 points, but also lost 19.09.  The good news for people is that, at most, 8% of the points are used up.  There is still a whole ton more points available.  So, even if you are Emily T., who went 0-2 and lost 50 points, there is still plenty of time.

On the good side, 7 people managed to go 2-0.  Like I mentioned above, no one won more than 13 points, so no one jumped out to a huge lead in this pool.  The big winners with Kent State were myself and Ally H.  By now, everyone should know that I feel honored to be in that company.  I always pull for Ally.  I also root for myself, so I was pretty excited to see the Golden Flashes come out on top.

Here are the standings based on points won.  The tiebreaker is what entry has lost the fewest points.  That will be the number in parenthesis.

1. Dave M.: 37 (-20)

2. Jay H. #1: 35 (-33)

2. Jay H. #2: 35 (-33)

4. Klei R.: 32 (0)

5. James P.: 32 (-5)

6. Nikki W.: 31 (0)

7. Jason S.: 31 (-29)

8. Hutch H.: 31 (-30)

9. Peter F.: 30 (-14)

10. Harrell R. #2: 28 (0)

11. Cory R.: 28 (-27)

12. Greg McE. - ESPN: 28 (-29)

13. Josiah T. #1: 27 (-24)

14. Matt N.: 27 (-26)

15. Brett W.: 26 (-33)

16. Dylan B.: 25 (-29)

17. Kirt R.: 24 (0)

18. Harrell R. #1: 24 (-23)

19. Michelle L. #1: 24 (-25)

19. Michelle L. #2: 24 (-25)

21. Becky H.: 23 (0)

22. Dustin B.: 23 (-32)

23. Grant F.: 21 (-19)

24. Marc R.: 21 (-20)

25. Pete J. #1: 20 (-32)

25. Pete J. #2: 20 (-32)

25. Pete J. #3: 20 (-32)

28. Andrzej #1: 19 (-25)

28. Andrzej #2: 19 (-25)

30. Dan Du.: 18 (-13)

31. Brian K.: 18 (-27)

32. Ben W.: 17 (-27)

33. Brad R.: 17 (-39)

34. Matt M.: 16 (0)

35. Ryan W.: 16 (-5)

36. Damien R. #1: 16 (-22)

37. Andrew D.: 16 (-35)

38. Jim W.: 15 (-21)

38. Scott Herd. #2: 15 (-21)

40. Mike W.: 14 (-15)

41. Brent S.: 13 (-18)

42. Ally H.: 13 (-19)

43. Mike S.: 11 (-6)

44. Jonathan J.: 10 (-11)

45. Shawn M.: 10 (-12)

46. Adam E.: 10 (-20)

47. Scott Has. #1: 10 (-32)

48. Rich P.: 9 (-8)

49. Mason A.: 9 (-20)

50. Mike N.: 8 (-7)

51. Scott Has. #2: 8 (-10)

52. Josiah T. #2: 8 (-16)

53. Ryan G.: 7 (-35)

54. Nichole W.: 4 (-14)

55. Nick B.: 3 (0)

56. Steve Dz.: 3 (-40)

57. Max A. #1: 2 (-4)

58. Max W. #1: 1 (-2)

58. Max W. #2: 1 (-2)

60. Jaxon S.: 1 (-3)

61. Tim N.: 0 (-3)

62. Max A. #2: 0 (-6)

63. Bryan G.: 0 (-8)

64. Josiah T. #3: 0 (-16)

65. Scott Herd. #1: 0 (-29)

65. Mike Smith: 0 (-29)

67. Damien R. #2: 0 (-31)

68. Emily T.: 0 (-50)

The next standings are the net points.  If you take the points won and subtract the points lost, that gives you the net points. For example, Jay H. #1 has won 35 points, but he has also lost 33 points, so his net points total is 2 (35-33).  This is a pretty good early indicator of how well your sheet is doing, and also mirrors the chances of winning the pool before I can calculate actual odds.  I also added in who the person picked to win the Championship game.  It makes a pretty big difference later on.  Not so much right now.

1. Klei R.: 32 (LSU)

2. Nikki W.: 31 (Clemson)

3. Harrell R. #2: 28 (Clemson)

4. James P.: 27 (LSU)

5. Kirt R.: 24 (LSU)

6. Becky H.: 23 (Ohio State)

7. Dave M.: 17 (Clemson)

8. Matt M.: 16 (LSU)

8. Peter F.: 16 (LSU)

10. Ryan W.: 11 (LSU)

11. Dan Du.: 5 (LSU)

11. Mike S.: 5 (Clemson)

13. Josiah T. #1: 3 (Ohio State)

13. Nick B.: 3 (Oklahoma)

15. Grant F.: 2 (Ohio State)

15. Jason S.: 2 (Clemson)

15. Jay H. #1: 2 (Clemson)

15. Jay H. #2: 2 (LSU)

19. Cory R.: 1 (LSU)

19. Harrell R. #1: 1 (LSU)

19. Hutch H.: 1 (LSU)

19. Marc R.: 1 (Clemson)

19. Matt N.: 1 (LSU)

19. Mike N.: 1 (Ohio State)

19. Rich P.: 1 (Ohio State)

26. Greg McE. - ESPN: -1 (LSU)

26. Jonathan J.: -1 (Clemson)

26. Max W. #1: -1 (LSU)

26. Max W. #2: -1 (LSU)

26. Michelle L. #1: -1 (Ohio State)

26. Michelle L. #2: -1 (LSU)

26. Mike W.: -1 (LSU)

33. Jaxon S.: -2 (LSU)

33. Max A. #1: -2 (LSU)

33. Scott Has. #2: -2 (Ohio State)

33. Shawn M.: -2 (LSU)

37. Tim N.: -3 (Ohio State)

38. Dylan B.: -4 (LSU)

39. Brent S.: -5 (LSU)

40. Ally H.: -6 (LSU)

40. Andrzej #1: -6 (LSU)

40. Andrzej #2: -6 (LSU)

40. Damien R. #1: -6 (LSU)

40. Jim W.: -6 (LSU)

40. Max A. #2: -6 (Clemson)

40. Scott Herd. #2: -6 (Clemson)

47. Brett W.: -7 (LSU)

48. Bryan G.: -8 (LSU)

48. Josiah T. #2: -8 (LSU)

50. Brian K.: -9 (Clemson)

50. Dustin B.: -9 (Ohio State)

52. Adam E.: -10 (LSU)

52. Ben W.: -10 (Ohio State)

52. Nichole W.: -10 (LSU)

55. Mason A.: -11 (Ohio State)

56. Pete J. #1: -12 (LSU)

56. Pete J. #2: -12 (Ohio State)

56. Pete J. #3: -12 (LSU)

59. Josiah T. #3: -16 (LSU)

60. Andrew D.: -19 (Ohio State)

61. Brad R.: -22 (Ohio State)

61. Scott Has. #1: -22 (Clemson)

63. Ryan G.: -28 (Clemson)

64. Mike Smith: -29 (Ohio State)

64. Scott Herd. #1: -29 (Ohio State)

66. Damien R. #2: -31 (LSU)

67. Steve Dz.: -37 (LSU)

68. Emily T.: -50 (Clemson)

But there are no less than 7 games tomorrow.  The Bowl schedulers are trying to kill me.  I’ll get them back though…  I’m not going to actually watch any of them.  My plan is to go hiking virtually all day, then watch the last Star Wars movie in preparation to see the latest one Sunday afternoon.  I feel OK doing this, since there will still be 30+ games left to watch, and only 2 ranked teams are playing.

Here we go:

Celebration Bowl

Vegas Line: North Carolina A&T -3

North Carolina A&T Picks: 26 (8.27 average)

Alcorn State picks: 42 (7.95 average)

Median pick: Alcorn State for 3.

Easily one of my favorite bowl games of the entire season.  Most of the reason for that is because a lot of websites don’t post a line for this game.  That’s kinda disrespectful to the teams playing.  I’ve watched this game a few years in the past, and it almost always was entertaining.  It doesn’t seem like many people knew what to do with this one.  I looked this up, and it looks like at least 7 games this Bowl season, the crowd on average picked the underdog as a majority pick.  This is such a game.  Alcorn State is the underdog, yet more people picked them.  I always say that you need to hit a few upsets correctly to win these things.  Maybe people wanted to take a safe upset.  That doesn’t really do much for you, if the median pick is Alcorn State by 3 and you took them for single digits.  You aren’t making up much ground on the field that way.  The bravest soul of them all was Ally H., who took Alcorn State for 34 points.  Good luck Ally H.  This game is also the game with the least amount of points wagered on it by a lot.  Only 549 points in total are up for grabs on this one.  Alcorn State has 334, good enough for 54^th overall.  NC A&T only had 215 (66^th).

The New Mexico Bowl

Vegas Line: San Diego State -3.5

Picks for San Diego State: 52 (Average pick: 18.77)

Picks for Central Michigan: 16 (Average pick: 12.81)

Median Pick: San Diego State for 13 points.

One thing I will say for this game is that it certainly looks like there is some hometown bias on the pick.  I bet if I ran this pool in Kansas or Missouri, this distribution would look a lot more like the Celebration Bowl distribution.  Since I am currently in San Diego, as well as a lot of the people that I know, it skews the data.  Another thing potentially skewing the data is the fact that I got a degree from Western Michigan, so a few of the people in this pool are people from Kalamazoo, and Central Michigan is the arch rival of WMU.  This is doubly true for me, since I also have a degree from SDSU.  There was virtually no chance of me picking anything other than SDSU.  I am not craven enough to pick against my alma mater on two counts.  I went all in on the Aztecs.  Even if that gamble doesn’t pay off, there’s no way I’m second guessing myself on this one.

The Cure Bowl

Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -5.5

Picks for Georgia Southern: 53 (16.30 average)

Picks for Liberty: 15 (10.93 average)

Median Pick: Georgia Southern for 11.5 points.

Anyone that remembers back in the March Madness pool last year may remember that I really, really don’t like Liberty University.  I will never pull for them, and I hope they lose by 1,000,000 points in this game.  I am of the opinion that they are essentially a money laundering organization in the guise of a religious school.  The fact that they play Division 1 sports speaks to just how profitable that enterprise is.  Anyway, they are not favored, and if they lose, I guess that’s because God willed it to be so.

Boca Raton Bowl

Vegas Line: SMU -8

SMU picks: 47 (17.98 points average)

Florida Atlantic: 21 (13.00 points average)

Median pick: SMU for 10.5

You would not know that this game was the biggest point spread we’ve had up until now.  I’m guessing something happened with this, since the initial point spread was SMU -3.  That’s a big jump.  Ahh.. I just looked it up.  At least 3 starters for Florida Atlantic are suspended for the game.  That hurts if you took Florida Atlantic, especially if you took them for a lot, as I did (26 points).  Ouch…  My only solace is that several years ago, the eventual winner of the pool was a woman who was the only person that took Florida Atlantic as a double digit underdog in the Hawaii Bowl.  She made up about 70 points on the field.  I’m hoping for a repeat performance.  Go Owls!!!

Camelia Bowl

Vegas Line: Arkansas State -1

Arkansas State picks: 46 (11.52 point average)

Florida International picks: 22 (9.05 points average)

Median pick: Arkansas State for 5.5.

I’ve got nothing on this one.  I don’t know what a Camelia is (I’m guessing it’s a flower).  I’m not really sure what kind of school Florida International is.  What about it makes it “international”.  I think it’s the only school with that kind of name in all of Division 1.  There’s not much cause to watch this one, although the line is pretty close, so the game may be pretty good.  Unfortunately, not many people have very many points on this one.  It is actually the 2^nd fewest points wagered on any game.  No one has it as a top 10 game.  Yawn…..

Las Vegas Bowl

Vegas Line: Washington -3.5

Washington picks: 22 (14.50 points average)

Boise State picks: 46 (18.61 points average)

Median pick: Boise State for 8.

This is like the Celebration Bowl.  This one had the field picking mostly against the favorite.  I’m kind of happy to see that.  Everyone knows I like upsets, and I like it when people pick them and they get rewarded for it.  I think people here maybe got caught up in thinking that this years Boise State team is similar to teams in the past.  It may be.  I think they are the first ranked team we will see.  I’m not sure what that says about the ranking system when the ranked team is an underdog on a neutral site to an unranked team.  Maybe the rankings aren’t as scientific as people may think.  Don’t even get me started on the “eye test”.

New Orleans Bowl

Vegas Line: Appalachian State -17

Appalachian State picks: 62 (32.58 points average)

UAB picks: 6 (17.17 points average)

Median pick: Appalachian State for 36.5

Ouch…  This is the game with the largest median pick score.  If you took Appalachian State for 36 points, you will make up ground on the field if they lose this game.  That’s as skewed as you will probably ever see.  The good thing is that after watching games all day, you probably don’t need to sweat this one.  Then again, it would be pretty fun if UAB won.  I seem to remember they were going to cut the football program there a few years ago.  It seems like maybe they did that for a short amount of time or not at all.  Regardless, they are playing the game, so they theoretically have a shot in this one.  I’m not holding my breath.

So, that’s the 7.  I’ll be sending out updated standings at the end of the day.  If you want to check your picks or see everyone else’s picks, they are in the following site:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HFfsILyNzSeTcZkS20SNcWl6KrBkO7gC

This is the spreadsheet that I use for all the analysis that I have been doing.  Feel free to play around with it.  If you find anything interesting in the data, let me know.  I’ll give you credit for finding stuff.  There’s a lot in here that I never get a chance to write up because I need to sleep and go to work and stuff.

Enjoy the games tomorrow.  I’ll be hitting the trails and hoping for the best for my picks.