Initial Probabilities - Severe cold edition

Good evening, everyone!  It’s been a pretty miserable 24 hours for me.  We took our cat to the pet hospital last night.  Apparently, she was eating some of the plastic off of our fake Christmas tree and it was partially blocking her stomach.  She had to stay overnight and take in a bunch of fluids but she’s back now.  On top of that, I came down with a cold overnight, so I’ve been at home all day drinking fluids and downing copious amounts of drugs in a vain attempt to not feel like I got run over by a truck.  The one upside was that I got to watch my Western Michigan team play.  I had 39 points on them, so they were going to kickstart my big push to the top.  Then they lost on some really freaky plays at the end of the game.

One good thing I had going for me was that I figured out that I could calculate the probabilities of 1^st, 2^nd & 3^rd after all, so I have those.  Turns out that the schedule this year really helped out.  I usually have to account for 4 outcomes of the Championship game, but since the semi-finals have already been played, the number of games left made it so that I could calculate things.

Let’s start off with the points totals:

1. Brett W.: 448 (-124)

2. Josiah T. #1: 436 (-108)

3. Klei R.: 430 (-128)

4. Jim W.: 425 (-73)

5. Scott Has. #2: 418 (-152)

6. Harrell R. #2: 417 (-42)

7. Harrell R. #1: 408 (-66)

8. Scott Herd. #2: 407 (-131)

9. Dave M.: 405 (-106)

10. James P.: 405 (-182)

11. Hutch H.: 404 (-120)

12. Grant F.: 399 (-68)

13. Pete J. #1: 398 (-102)

14. Michelle L. #1: 391 (-115)

15. Mike N.: 388 (-131)

16. Marc R.: 387 (-109)

17. Jonathan J.: 384 (-70)

18. Ben W.: 384 (-113)

19. Mike S.: 384 (-127)

20. Brent S.: 384 (-140)

21. Matt N.: 384 (-141)

22. Brian K.: 382 (-136)

23. Scott Herd. #1: 378 (-167)

24. Peter F.: 377 (-144)

25. Pete J. #2: 374 (-126)

26. Andrzej #1: 374 (-161)

27. Mason A.: 373 (-131)

28. Andrzej #2: 373 (-162)

29. Andrew D.: 371 (-238)

30. Dylan B.: 370 (-156)

31. Josiah T. #2: 369 (-134)

32. Max A. #1: 369 (-255)

33. Mike W.: 364 (-148)

34. Josiah T. #3: 362 (-175)

35. Mike Smith: 357 (-105)

36. Bryan G.: 353 (-106)

37. Pete J. #3: 353 (-147)

38. Ally H.: 349 (-244)

39. Max W. #2: 348 (-192)

40. Ryan G.: 346 (-167)

41. Damien R. #2: 346 (-173)

42. Greg McE. - ESPN: 345 (-163)

43. Ryan W.: 344 (-104)

44. Michelle L. #2: 343 (-163)

45. Shawn M.: 338 (-212)

46. Matt M.: 333 (-148)

47. Emily T.: 328 (-152)

48. Tim N.: 328 (-236)

49. Scott Has. #1: 319 (-197)

50. Nikki W.: 319 (-229)

51. Jay H. #2: 317 (-164)

52. Cory R.: 314 (-233)

53. Brad R.: 311 (-191)

54. Jay H. #1: 306 (-145)

55. Adam E.: 306 (-157)

56. Dustin B.: 299 (-159)

57. Jaxon S.: 293 (-177)

58. Damien R. #1: 284 (-215)

59. Jason S.: 281 (-308)

60. Becky H.: 277 (-180)

61. Max A. #2: 272 (-184)

62. Max W. #1: 269 (-147)

63. Kirt R.: 263 (-199)

64. Rich P.: 261 (-250)

65. Steve Dz.: 253 (-243)

66. Nichole W.: 251 (-205)

67. Nick B.: 230 (-121)

68. Dan Du.: 230 (-248)

…and then the net points totals:

1. Harrell R. #2: 375 (LSU)

2. Jim W.: 352 (LSU)

3. Harrell R. #1: 342 (LSU)

4. Grant F.: 331 (LSU)

5. Josiah T. #1: 328 (LSU)

6. Brett W.: 324 (LSU)

7. Jonathan J.: 314 (LSU)

8. Klei R.: 302 (Clemson)

9. Dave M.: 299 (LSU)

10. Pete J. #1: 296 (LSU)

11. Hutch H.: 284 (LSU)

12. Marc R.: 278 (Clemson)

13. Scott Herd. #2: 276 (LSU)

13. Michelle L. #1: 276 (LSU)

15. Ben W.: 271 (LSU)

16. Scott Has. #2: 266 (LSU)

17. Mike N.: 257 (Ohio State)

17. Mike S.: 257 (LSU)

19. Mike Smith: 252 (Clemson)

20. Pete J. #2: 248 (LSU)

21. Bryan G.: 247 (Clemson)

22. Brian K.: 246 (LSU)

23. Brent S.: 244 (LSU)

24. Matt N.: 243 (Clemson)

25. Mason A.: 242 (LSU)

26. Ryan W.: 240 (LSU)

27. Josiah T. #2: 235 (Clemson)

28. Peter F.: 233 (Ohio State)

29. James P.: 223 (LSU)

30. Mike W.: 216 (Ohio State)

31. Dylan B.: 214 (LSU)

32. Andrzej #1: 213 (LSU)

33. Scott Herd. #1: 211 (LSU)

33. Andrzej #2: 211 (LSU)

35. Pete J. #3: 206 (Clemson)

36. Josiah T. #3: 187 (Ohio State)

37. Matt M.: 185 (Clemson)

38. Greg McE. - ESPN: 182 (LSU)

39. Michelle L. #2: 180 (Clemson)

40. Ryan G.: 179 (LSU)

41. Emily T.: 176 (LSU)

42. Damien R. #2: 173 (LSU)

43. Jay H. #1: 161 (LSU)

44. Max W. #2: 156 (LSU)

45. Jay H. #2: 153 (Ohio State)

46. Adam E.: 149 (Clemson)

47. Dustin B.: 140 (Ohio State)

48. Andrew D.: 133 (Ohio State)

49. Shawn M.: 126 (Ohio State)

50. Scott Has. #1: 122 (LSU)

50. Max W. #1: 122 (Ohio State)

52. Brad R.: 120 (LSU)

53. Jaxon S.: 116 (LSU)

54. Max A. #1: 114 (Clemson)

55. Nick B.: 109 (LSU)

56. Ally H.: 105 (Ohio State)

57. Becky H.: 97 (LSU)

58. Tim N.: 92 (Ohio State)

59. Nikki W.: 90 (Ohio State)

60. Max A. #2: 88 (Clemson)

61. Cory R.: 81 (Ohio State)

62. Damien R. #1: 69 (LSU)

63. Kirt R.: 64 (Clemson)

64. Nichole W.: 46 (Ohio State)

65. Rich P.: 11 (Ohio State)

66. Steve Dz.: 10 (Oklahoma)

67. Dan Du.: -18 (Clemson)

68. Jason S.: -27 (Ohio State)

As I Mentioned above, I was able to calculate probabilities of the various places.  That also means that I can reveal who is alive for what, and who is dead.  Sadly, there are 18 entries that can no longer got to the top 3 places.  Here they are:

Ally H.

Andrew D.

Cory R.

Damien R. #2

Dan Du.

Jason S.

Jay H. #1

Josiah T. #3

Mason A.

Max W. #1

Mike W.

Nichole W.

Rich P.

Ryan G.

Scott Has. #1

Shawn M.

Steve Dz.

Tim N.

I started sending out the elimination matrix last March Madness.  That seemed like a good way to track everything.  The way this works is that once you are eliminated from a payout place, I’ll add the team that lost that knocked you out.  Some will say “Initial” meaning that you are already out of that position.  The percentages that show up are the probability that you will get that place.  Here’s the initial matrix:

Ranking	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Harrell R. #2: 375 (LSU)	22.82%	16.06%	11.91%
2. Jim W.: 352 (LSU)	14.54%	12.36%	8.68%
3. Harrell R. #1: 342 (LSU)	Initial	7.76%	9.75%
4. Grant F.: 331 (LSU)	9.00%	7.90%	6.78%
5. Josiah T. #1: 328 (LSU)	4.88%	6.76%	8.25%
6. Brett W.: 324 (LSU)	4.44%	6.45%	7.07%
7. Jonathan J.: 314 (LSU)	4.20%	5.38%	6.29%
8. Klei R.: 302 (Clemson)	5.19%	5.79%	5.42%
9. Dave M.: 299 (LSU)	0.26%	1.41%	2.72%
10. Pete J. #1: 296 (LSU)	0.24%	1.03%	2.19%
11. Hutch H.: 284 (LSU)	0.02%	0.07%	0.35%
12. Marc R.: 278 (Clemson)	5.39%	4.47%	4.41%
13. Michelle L. #1: 276 (LSU)	0.42%	1.71%	2.82%
13. Scott Herd. #2: 276 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.07%
15. Ben W.: 271 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.19%
16. Scott Has. #2: 266 (LSU)	3.77%	3.82%	2.99%
17. Mike N.: 257 (Ohio State)	0.71%	1.34%	1.67%
17. Mike S.: 257 (LSU)	0.02%	0.09%	0.22%
19. Mike Smith: 252 (Clemson)	7.51%	4.20%	3.41%
20. Pete J. #2: 248 (LSU)	Initial	0.01%	0.08%
21. Bryan G.: 247 (Clemson)	11.12%	4.36%	3.08%
22. Brian K.: 246 (LSU)	Initial	0.07%	0.27%
23. Brent S.: 244 (LSU)	0.89%	1.25%	1.47%
24. Matt N.: 243 (Clemson)	0.14%	0.24%	0.62%
25. Mason A.: 242 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	Initial
26. Ryan W.: 240 (LSU)	1.26%	1.65%	1.81%
27. Josiah T. #2: 235 (Clemson)	0.57%	1.41%	1.79%
28. Peter F.: 233 (Ohio State)	0.09%	0.26%	0.46%
29. James P.: 223 (LSU)	0.03%	0.31%	0.44%
30. Mike W.: 216 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
31. Dylan B.: 214 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.02%
32. Andrzej #1: 213 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.01%
33. Andrzej #2: 211 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.02%
33. Scott Herd. #1: 211 (LSU)	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%
35. Pete J. #3: 206 (Clemson)	1.18%	1.62%	1.62%
36. Josiah T. #3: 187 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
37. Matt M.: 185 (Clemson)	0.04%	0.17%	0.31%
38. Greg McE. - ESPN: 182 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.02%
39. Michelle L. #2: 180 (Clemson)	0.10%	0.36%	0.52%
40. Ryan G.: 179 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	Initial
41. Emily T.: 176 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.01%
42. Damien R. #2: 173 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	Initial
43. Jay H. #1: 161 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	Initial
44. Max W. #2: 156 (LSU)	0.01%	Initial	0.03%
45. Jay H. #2: 153 (Ohio State)	Initial	0.04%	0.12%
46. Adam E.: 149 (Clemson)	0.37%	0.51%	0.52%
47. Dustin B.: 140 (Ohio State)	0.09%	0.20%	0.37%
48. Andrew D.: 133 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
49. Shawn M.: 126 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. Max W. #1: 122 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. Scott Has. #1: 122 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	Initial
52. Brad R.: 120 (LSU)	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%
53. Jaxon S.: 116 (LSU)	0.05%	0.06%	0.13%
54. Max A. #1: 114 (Clemson)	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%
55. Nick B.: 109 (LSU)	0.48%	0.41%	0.52%
56. Ally H.: 105 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
57. Becky H.: 97 (LSU)	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%
58. Tim N.: 92 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
59. Nikki W.: 90 (Ohio State)	Initial	0.01%	0.01%
60. Max A. #2: 88 (Clemson)	0.07%	0.21%	0.13%
61. Cory R.: 81 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
62. Damien R. #1: 69 (LSU)	Initial	Initial	0.01%
63. Kirt R.: 64 (Clemson)	0.07%	0.19%	0.26%
64. Nichole W.: 46 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
65. Rich P.: 11 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial
66. Steve Dz.: 10 (Oklahoma)	Initial	Initial	Initial
67. Dan Du.: -18 (Clemson)	Initial	Initial	Initial
68. Jason S.: -27 (Ohio State)	Initial	Initial	Initial

That leaves us with some games tomorrow, so that means eliminations.  Here are the single game eliminations.  These are games you must win to stay alive for the position listed.  Remember that a combination of losses can also knock you out.  I am not calculating that information.  It will be in the post tomorrow night.  With that disclaimer, here we go….

Belk Bowl

If Kentucky Wins:

Andrzej #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Andrzej #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Becky H. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Ben W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Brian K. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Emily T. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jaxon S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Max A. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Max W. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Nikki W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If Virginia Tech Wins:

Hutch H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jonathan J. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Peter F. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott Herd. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Sun Bowl:

If Florida State Wins:

Andrzej #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Andrzej #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Becky H. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Greg McE. - ESPN is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

James P. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Max A. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Peter F. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott Herd. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Arizona State wins:

Emily T. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Kirt R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Max W. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Nikki W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Liberty Bowl:

If Navy Wins:

Andrzej #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Andrzej #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jaxon S. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Kirt R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Max A. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Kansas State wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Emily T. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Greg McE. - ESPN is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

James P. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Max A. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Max W. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Nikki W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Peter F. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott Herd. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Arizona Bowl:

If Wyoming wins:

Andrzej #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Andrzej #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Emily T. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Josiah T. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Kirt R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Nikki W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott Herd. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Georgia State wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

James P. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Max A. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Max W. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Scott Herd. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Alamo Bowl:

If Utah wins:

Max A. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Max A. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Nikki W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Texas Wins:

Andrzej #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Andrzej #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Becky H. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Ben W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Emily T. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Greg McE. - ESPN is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

James P. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Max W. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Scott Herd. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

That’s it for the single game eliminations.  There are another 4 games on January 1^st, so this will be a real gauntlet everyone will have to run through.  Some people are better positioned than others.  Keep in mind that you always have a chance until you are mathematically eliminated.  Keep the faith!!!

Now I’m going to shotgun about a pint of NyQuil and hopefully sleep through the night.  Back again tomorrow with a recap of the carnage and a preview of the upcoming carnage.  Good luck to everyone!!!!