1/1 - After Rose Bowl - Fiesta Bowl eliminations.

This will be a quick one, since the Fiesta Bowl is already started.  The eliminations were in the last post, so here are the standings for 1st place:

1.: Brent E. #3 (25.7812%)

2.: Brent E. #1 (14.0625%)

2.: Carl B. (14.0625%)

4.: James G. #2 (12.5%)

4.: Roth W. #2 (12.5%)

6.: Adam E. (9.375%)

7.: Brent S. #1 (4.6875%)

8.: CJ (3.125%)

9.: Roth W. #1 (1.5625%)

10.: Damien R. #2 (1.1718%)

10.: Jim W. (1.1718%)

It appears as though my theory about a woman winning this year isn't going to happen as I believe Michelle L. was the last woman alive.  Here are the probabilities for 2nd:

1.: Carl B. (17.0572%)

2.: Roth W. #1 (16.6666%)

3.: Brent E. #3 (11.3281%)

4.: Brent E. #1 (10.1562%)

5.: Roth W. #2 (9.375%)

6.: CJ (8.0729%)

7.: Brent S. #1 (6.6406%)

7.: James G. #2 (6.6406%)

9.: Adam E. (3.9062%)

10.: Chris L. #2 (3.5156%)

11.: Damien R. #2 (2.7343%)

12.: Jim W. (2.3437%)

13.: Marc R. #1 (0.7812%)

13.: Jay H. #3 (0.7812%)

...and 3rd:

1.: Roth W. #2 (15.625%)

2.: Roth W. #1 (14.7135%)

3.: Carl B. (11.5885%)

4.: James G. #2 (11.3281%)

5.: Brent S. #1 (10.5468%)

6.: Adam E. (7.4218%)

7.: Jim W. (5.0781%)

8.: Damien R. #2 (4.6875%)

9.: CJ (4.5572%)

10.: Brent E. #3 (2.3437%)

10.: Brent E. #1 (2.3437%)

10.: Marc R. #1 (2.3437%)

10.: Klei R. #2 (2.3437%)

10.: Jay H. #3 (2.3437%)

15.: Chris L. #2 (1.1718%)

16.: Michelle L. #1 (0.7812%)

16.: Ben P. (0.7812%)

Here are the points rankings:

1. Carl B.: 374 (-114)

2. Roth W. #1: 374 (-122)

3. Adam E.: 372 (-158)

4. Roth W. #2: 371 (-125)

5. Brent S. #1: 366 (-134)

6. Kansas C.: 365 (-137)

7. Michelle L. #1: 364 (-141)

8. Damien R. #2: 363 (-153)

9. BAD: 362 (-153)

10. Jim W.: 361 (-164)

11. Matt N.: 351 (-183)

12. Mike L. #2: 347 (-141)

13. CJ: 343 (-122)

14. Miguel D.: 343 (-145)

15. Marc R. #3: 342 (-165)

16. Mike L. #1: 341 (-147)

17. Brent E. #2: 335 (-145)

18. Erica A.: 334 (-128)

19. Tim N.: 334 (-221)

20. James G. #2: 333 (-96)

21. Hutch H. #1: 333 (-166)

22. Damien R. #1: 333 (-196)

23. Kevin W.: 332 (-156)

24. Klei R. #2: 331 (-137)

25. Andy M.: 327 (-149)

26. Scott Her. #2: 325 (-149)

27. Brent E. #3: 324 (-82)

28. Hutch H. #2: 318 (-181)

29. Chris L. #1: 317 (-134)

30. Dave M.: 315 (-162)

31. Larry G. #2: 315 (-166)

32. Scott Has.: 315 (-189)

33. Brett W.: 315 (-191)

34. Chris L. #2: 310 (-133)

35. Karl K.: 310 (-186)

36. Scott Her. #1: 309 (-159)

37. Larry G. #1: 309 (-172)

38. Abel R.: 307 (-150)

39. Amos W.: 307 (-174)

40. Brent S. #2: 307 (-179)

41. Bosun Ava: 306 (-190)

42. Brent E. #1: 305 (-101)

43. Larry G. #3: 299 (-187)

44. Klei R. #1: 298 (-166)

45. Marc R. #2: 296 (-194)

46. Michelle L. #2: 296 (-195)

47. Bruce G.: 291 (-167)

48. Becky H: 290 (-189)

49. Jay H. #1: 289 (-148)

50. Kevin F.: 289 (-203)

51. Ben P.: 288 (-158)

52. Matt J.: 288 (-188)

53. Howard S.: 287 (-183)

54. Jeff W.: 285 (-172)

55. Luis B. #1: 283 (-253)

56. Sailor Dan: 280 (-187)

57. Peter J. #2: 280 (-203)

58. Steve D.: 280 (-219)

59. Jeff D.: 278 (-203)

60. Chad L.: 277 (-163)

61. Marc R. #1: 276 (-130)

62. Peter J. #1: 275 (-208)

63. Brad R.: 275 (-229)

64. Dre: 274 (-220)

65. Shawn S.: 273 (-214)

66. Sally R.: 269 (-227)

67. Mike S.: 268 (-224)

68. Mike W.: 265 (-224)

69. Justin: 264 (-242)

70. Luis B. #2: 263 (-261)

71. Amy D.: 260 (-210)

72. Huki Julie: 260 (-214)

73. Greg F.: 256 (-227)

74. Chad C.: 254 (-204)

75. Daryl J.: 252 (-154)

76. Mandi A.: 244 (-241)

77. Dennis R.: 224 (-250)

78. James G. #1: 221 (-213)

79. DesGru: 219 (-221)

80. Sammie B.: 219 (-250)

81. Ben W.: 218 (-253)

82. Easten S.: 214 (-228)

83. Jay H. #3: 207 (-199)

84. Jay H. #2: 205 (-201)

85. Ally H.: 202 (-333)

86. Michelle R.: 201 (-314)

87. Max W.: 199 (-292)

88. Tony S.: 192 (-264)

89. Jackie S.: 169 (-327)

Here are the eliminations for tonight's Fiesta Bowl:

If UCF wins:

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Baylor for 35 points)

Roth W. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.   (Baylor for 35 points)

If Baylor wins:

Ben P. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Baylor for 11 points)

Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (UCF for 29 points)

Jim W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.    (Baylor for 4 points)

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (Baylor for 30 points)

I was wondering how it was that Jay H. #3 was alive for so long without having racked up many points.  It looks like his long shot on UCF is mainly what is keeping him alive.  It's ballsy, but if gets him in the money, I don't think he'll be disappointed.  Good luck!!!!!!