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As expected, a lot of people are eliminated from contention
after 4 games finished this afternoon. I
tried to document the single game eliminations yesterday, but given that 16 different
scenarios could have played out, I really couldn't do it at the time. But I can do it now. Here are the eliminations:
Gator Bowl:
1st place:
Kevin W.
2nd place:
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Andy M.
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Ben P.
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Chad L.
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Kevin W.
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Scott Has.
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3rd place:
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Andy M.
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Chad L.
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Hutch H. #2
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Sally R.
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In the Heart of Dallas bowl:
1st place:
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Chris L. #1
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Huki Julie
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Klei R. #2
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Steve D.
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Bosun Ava
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Damien R. #1
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Huki Julie
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Klei R. #2
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Steve D.
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3rd place:
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Bosun Ava
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Brett W.
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Damien R. #1
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Huki Julie
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Steve D.
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Capital One Bowl:
1st place:
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Brent E. #2
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Bruce G.
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Daryl J.
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Jay H. #3
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2nd place:
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Bruce G.
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Chris L. #1
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Daryl J.
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3rd place:
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Bruce G.
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Chris L. #1
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Daryl J.
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Kevin W.
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Scott Has.
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...and finally, from the Outback bowl:
1st place:
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Chris L. #2
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Erica A.
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Jay H. #1
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Larry G. #3
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2nd place:
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Brent E. #2
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Jay H. #1
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Larry G. #3
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Marc R. #3
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3rd place:
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Brent E. #2
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Jay H. #1
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Larry G. #3
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What that leaves us with is 22 people still alive for the 3 places.
Damien R. #2 had a commanding lead at the beginning of the day, but some
inopportune losses for him early really knocked his chances back.
Here are the updated probabilities of winning first place:
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1.: Brent E. #1 (25.1953%)
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2.: Brent E. #3 (12.8906%)
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3.: Adam E. (12.5%)
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4.: Carl B. (9.9609%)
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5.: Kansas C. (7.8125%)
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5.: James G. #2 (7.8125%)
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7.: Roth W. #2 (6.25%)
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8.: Brent S. #1 (3.7109%)
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9.: CJ (3.5156%)
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10.: Marc R. #1 (3.125%)
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11.: Abel R. (2.1484%)
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12.: Jeff W. (1.5625%)
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13.: Damien R. #2 (1.3671%)
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14.: Michelle L. #1 (0.7812%)
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14.: Roth W. #1 (0.7812%)
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16.: Jim W. (0.5859%)
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...and 2nd place:
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1.: Carl B. (12.2395%)
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2.: Kansas C. (10.3515%)
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3.: Brent S. #1 (9.1796%)
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4.: Roth W. #1 (8.3333%)
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5.: Brent E. #3 (8.0078%)
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6.: Brent E. #1 (7.8125%)
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7.: Adam E. (7.6171%)
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8.: Damien R. #2 (6.0546%)
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9.: CJ (5.4036%)
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10.: Marc R. #1 (4.6875%)
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10.: Roth W. #2 (4.6875%)
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12.: Erica A. (3.5156%)
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13.: James G. #2 (3.3203%)
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14.: Michelle L. #1 (2.539%)
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15.: Jay H. #3 (1.9531%)
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16.: Chris L. #2 (1.7578%)
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17.: Jim W. (1.1718%)
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18.: Abel R. (0.9765%)
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19.: Jeff W. (0.3906%)
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...and 3rd place:
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1.: Kansas C. (13.4765%)
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2.: Brent S. #1 (10.1562%)
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3.: Carl B. (9.8958%)
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4.: Roth W. #2 (7.8125%)
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5.: Adam E. (7.6171%)
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6.: Roth W. #1 (7.3567%)
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7.: James G. #2 (7.2265%)
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8.: Damien R. #2 (5.664%)
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9.: Brent E. #3 (5.4687%)
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10.: CJ (4.427%)
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11.: Michelle L. #1 (4.2968%)
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12.: Brent E. #1 (2.9296%)
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13.: Jim W. (2.539%)
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14.: Abel R. (1.9531%)
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14.: Marc R. #1 (1.9531%)
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14.: Klei R. #2 (1.9531%)
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17.: Jay H. #3 (1.5625%)
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18.: Erica A. (1.1718%)
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19.: Chris L. #2 (0.9765%)
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20.: Jeff W. (0.7812%)
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21.: Marc R. #3 (0.3906%)
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21.: Ben P. (0.3906%)
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It looks like we are finally getting some separation, as 3
different people top the different races for the payouts. Congratulations if you made it this far. We will not be having a repeat champion this
year, as Klei R. was finally knocked out of 1st place contention.
For those that are interested in the standings based on
points, here they are:
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1. Adam E.: 372 (-142)
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2. Carl B.: 369 (-114)
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3. Brent S. #1: 366 (-128)
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4. Kansas C.: 365 (-113)
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5. Michelle L. #1: 364 (-129)
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6. Damien R. #2: 363 (-142)
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7. BAD: 362 (-147)
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8. Roth W. #1: 359 (-122)
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9. Matt N.: 351 (-172)
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10. Mike L. #2: 347 (-139)
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11. CJ: 343 (-121)
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12. Miguel D.: 343 (-142)
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13. Marc R. #3: 342 (-142)
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14. Mike L. #1: 339 (-147)
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15. Roth W. #2: 338 (-125)
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16. Erica A.: 334 (-113)
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17. Tim N.: 334 (-206)
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18. Hutch H. #1: 333 (-144)
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19. Damien R. #1: 333 (-185)
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20. Kevin W.: 332 (-142)
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21. Jim W.: 331 (-164)
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22. Klei R. #2: 330 (-137)
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23. Andy M.: 327 (-131)
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24. Scott Her. #2: 325 (-141)
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25. James G. #2: 323 (-96)
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26. Hutch H. #2: 318 (-159)
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27. Larry G. #2: 315 (-142)
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28. Scott Has.: 315 (-162)
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29. Brett W.: 315 (-188)
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30. Chris L. #1: 314 (-134)
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31. Dave M.: 311 (-162)
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32. Larry G. #1: 309 (-157)
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33. Brent E. #2: 308 (-145)
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34. Abel R.: 307 (-119)
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35. Chris L. #2: 307 (-133)
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36. Brent S. #2: 307 (-162)
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37. Brent E. #1: 305 (-73)
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38. Scott Her. #1: 301 (-159)
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39. Amos W.: 300 (-174)
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40. Larry G. #3: 299 (-156)
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41. Karl K.: 299 (-186)
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42. Brent E. #3: 296 (-82)
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43. Michelle L. #2: 296 (-177)
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44. Marc R. #2: 296 (-190)
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45. Kevin F.: 289 (-199)
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46. Matt J.: 288 (-185)
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47. Jeff W.: 285 (-141)
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48. Luis B. #1: 281 (-253)
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49. Howard S.: 280 (-183)
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50. Steve D.: 280 (-189)
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51. Jeff D.: 278 (-174)
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52. Chad L.: 277 (-161)
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53. Marc R. #1: 276 (-102)
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54. Klei R. #1: 274 (-166)
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55. Dre: 274 (-197)
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56. Shawn S.: 273 (-200)
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57. Bosun Ava: 271 (-190)
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58. Brad R.: 271 (-229)
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59. Justin: 264 (-234)
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60. Mike S.: 263 (-224)
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61. Luis B. #2: 263 (-259)
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62. Becky H: 261 (-189)
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63. Ben P.: 260 (-158)
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64. Bruce G.: 260 (-167)
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65. Amy D.: 260 (-180)
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66. Jay H. #1: 258 (-148)
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67. Greg F.: 256 (-198)
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68. Mike W.: 255 (-224)
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69. Peter J. #2: 254 (-203)
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70. Peter J. #1: 249 (-208)
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71. Sailor Dan: 245 (-187)
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72. Mandi A.: 244 (-221)
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73. Chad C.: 236 (-204)
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74. Sally R.: 235 (-227)
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75. Huki Julie: 226 (-214)
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76. Daryl J.: 224 (-154)
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77. James G. #1: 221 (-209)
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78. Jay H. #3: 207 (-171)
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79. Easten S.: 201 (-228)
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80. Sammie B.: 199 (-250)
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81. Max W.: 199 (-260)
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82. Dennis R.: 197 (-250)
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83. DesGru: 196 (-221)
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84. Ben W.: 195 (-253)
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85. Tony S.: 192 (-237)
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86. Ally H.: 183 (-333)
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87. Michelle R.: 182 (-314)
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88. Jay H. #2: 177 (-201)
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89. Jackie S.: 169 (-298)
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But there's yet another game to go today (actually there are
two, but it's one game at a time at this point). The Rose Bowl is about to kick off. Here are the eliminations for this game:
If Stanford wins:
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Ben P. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. (Michigan State for 28 points)
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Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention. (Michigan State for 28 points)
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Chris L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. (Michigan State for 3 points)
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James G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. (Michigan State for 10 points)
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Jim W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention. (Michigan State for 30
points)
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Roth W. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rdplace
contention. (Michigan State for 15
points)
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Roth W. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention. (Michigan State for 33
points)
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If Michigan State wins:
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Abel R. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention. (Stanford for 31 points)
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Erica A. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. (Stanford for 15 points)
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Jeff W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention. (Stanford for 31 points)
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Kansas C. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention. (Stanford for 24 points)
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Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention. (Stanford
for 28 points)
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Marc R. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. (Stanford for 23 points)
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Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place
contention. (Stanford for 12 points)
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Good luck to everyone.
I am going to go play tennis with my wife. I'll be back with updates before the Fiesta
Bowl tonight.
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