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For the grand total of 2 people that picked Oklahoma to win
this game, it was a great night. There
were 29 sheets that had Alabama as the top scoring team, so apparently there is
a reason why they play these games.
After Baylor last night and Oklahoma tonight, I'm beginning to think my
coin flip theory isn't entirely off base.
There are only 14 people left that can win anything. With so few games left, we are starting to
see some strange eliminations. For
example, James G. #2 can't win 2nd, but could still win 1st or 3rd. The opposite is true for Chris L. #2 who is
only alive for 2nd. All of these things
will be sorted out as the games go on.
Another good thing is that a tie for any of the places seems less and
less likely. I appreciate that, since I
hate tiebreakers.
Here are the probabilities for 1st place:
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1.: Brent E. #3 (26.5625%)
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2.: Adam E. (18.75%)
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3.: Roth W. #2 (12.5%)
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3.: Brent E. #1 (12.5%)
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3.: James G. #2 (12.5%)
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6.: Carl B. (7.8125%)
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7.: Brent S. #1 (3.125%)
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7.: CJ (3.125%)
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9.: Jim W. (1.5625%)
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9.: Damien R. #2 (1.5625%)
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...and for 2nd place:
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1.: Carl B. (17.1875%)
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2.: Roth W. #1 (14.0625%)
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3.: Brent E. #1 (12.5%)
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4.: Brent E. #3 (10.9375%)
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5.: CJ (9.375%)
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6.: Roth W. #2 (7.8125%)
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7.: Adam E. (6.25%)
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8.: Jim W. (4.6875%)
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8.: Damien R. #2 (4.6875%)
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10.: Brent S. #1 (3.125%)
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10.: Chris L. #2 (3.125%)
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10.: Marc R. #1 (3.125%)
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10.: Jay H. #3 (3.125%)
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...and for 3rd place:
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1.: Roth W. #2 (17.1875%)
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1.: Adam E. (17.1875%)
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3.: Carl B. (12.5%)
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3.: James G. #2 (12.5%)
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5.: Roth W. #1 (9.375%)
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5.: Damien R. #2 (9.375%)
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5.: Jay H. #3 (9.375%)
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8.: Jim W. (6.25%)
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9.: Brent S. #1 (3.125%)
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9.: Brent E. #1 (3.125%)
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Strangely, there are more people alive for 2nd place than
there are for 3rd. It's usually the
other way around. Hmmm....
Tomorrow night is the Cotton Bowl between Missouri and
Oklahoma State and the Orange Bowl between
Clemson and Ohio State. These look to be
a little less lopsided as far as picks went than tonight's game, so we'll see
if the eliminations are more pronounced.
Since there are only 4 possible ways it can play out, I'll run all 4
scenarios:
If Missouri and Clemson win:
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Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
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Carl B. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.
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Chris L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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CJ is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
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Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
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Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Jim W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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If Missouri and Ohio State win:
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Adam E. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.
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Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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Carl B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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CJ is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Roth W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Roth W. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
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If Oklahoma State and Clemson win:
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If Oklahoma State and Ohio State win:
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Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.
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Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Chris L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Jim W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Roth W. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Roth W. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Given that only 14 people are still alive for this thing, it
looks like a lot will be decided tomorrow.
Good luck to everyone still remaining!!!!
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