After BBVA Compass Bowl

How heartbreaking for Carl B. today.  I was watching the BBVA Compass Bowl today knowing that I could pay locked in to paying off Carl if everything went his way.  After the first half, when Vanderbilt was up 24-0, I figured we still had to wait to see who gets what.  Then Houston came from nowhere to score 24 points in the 3rd quarter to tie it up.  I could almost picture a dejected Carl B. gaining more and more confidence as the game went on - only to have his soul crushed by a Vanderbilt 10 point victory at the end.  Sadly, that eliminates Carl from all places despite having a really good point total.

There are still 8 people alive for the 3 payouts after today's games.  No one is alive for all three payouts, which is not really all that surprising with only 2 games left.  The big winner of the day was Brent E. #1, who as late as 12/30 was in 79th place, who is now leading in points.  That's an amazing comeback.  Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Brent E. #1 (50%)

2.: Brent E. #3 (25%)

2.: James G. #2 (25%)

...and 2nd place:

1.: Brent E. #1 (25%)

1.: Adam E. (25%)

1.: Brent E. #3 (25%)

4.: Roth W. #1 (12.5%)

4.: Roth W. #2 (12.5%)

...and 3rd place:

1.: Jay H. #3 (25%)

1.: James G. #2 (25%)

1.: Brent S. #1 (25%)

4.: Roth W. #2 (12.5%)

4.: Roth W. #1 (12.5%)

The good news for me is that I don't have to bug anyone for a tie-breaker, since the only tie that is possible is between Roth W. #1 and Roth W. #2 for 2nd and 3rd.  That's a nice perk for my workload.

Here are the points:

1. Brent E. #1: 401 (-160)

2. Jim W.: 395 (-232)

3. Carl B.: 392 (-205)

4. Adam E.: 391 (-210)

5. Brent E. #3: 389 (-172)

6. Roth W. #1: 384 (-196)

7. James G. #2: 380 (-193)

8. Brent S. #1: 380 (-213)

9. Mike L. #2: 377 (-223)

10. Roth W. #2: 376 (-196)

11. Kansas C.: 376 (-215)

12. Mike L. #1: 371 (-229)

13. BAD: 368 (-227)

14. Michelle L. #1: 367 (-212)

15. Klei R. #2: 366 (-209)

16. Damien R. #2: 366 (-225)

17. Brent E. #2: 364 (-236)

18. Erica A.: 361 (-211)

19. Tim N.: 361 (-261)

20. Chris L. #1: 360 (-216)

21. Marc R. #3: 360 (-250)

22. Matt N.: 355 (-256)

23. Chris L. #2: 353 (-214)

24. CJ: 353 (-236)

25. Brett W.: 348 (-252)

26. Miguel D.: 344 (-233)

27. Larry G. #3: 344 (-255)

28. Marc R. #1: 341 (-220)

29. Hutch H. #1: 341 (-243)

30. Andy M.: 340 (-239)

31. Scott Her. #2: 338 (-236)

32. Larry G. #1: 338 (-250)

33. Kevin W.: 336 (-244)

34. Damien R. #1: 334 (-277)

35. Brent S. #2: 333 (-256)

36. Marc R. #2: 332 (-262)

37. Dave M.: 331 (-238)

38. Jay H. #3: 330 (-231)

39. Scott Her. #1: 330 (-242)

40. Peter J. #1: 330 (-268)

41. Chad L.: 329 (-251)

42. Hutch H. #2: 328 (-256)

43. Jeff W.: 327 (-246)

44. Klei R. #1: 323 (-253)

45. Bosun Ava: 322 (-258)

46. Jay H. #1: 319 (-244)

47. Huki Julie: 319 (-256)

48. Peter J. #2: 319 (-279)

49. Chad C.: 318 (-254)

50. Sally R.: 318 (-281)

51. Sailor Dan: 315 (-248)

52. Becky H: 315 (-259)

53. Karl K.: 315 (-267)

54. Larry G. #2: 315 (-273)

54. Scott Has.: 315 (-273)

56. Amos W.: 313 (-255)

57. Matt J.: 308 (-284)

58. Jeff D.: 308 (-304)

59. Abel R.: 307 (-271)

60. Michelle L. #2: 305 (-272)

61. Mike W.: 299 (-279)

62. DesGru: 299 (-281)

63. Steve D.: 299 (-301)

64. Shawn S.: 298 (-306)

65. Brad R.: 297 (-303)

66. Howard S.: 296 (-275)

67. Luis B. #2: 296 (-314)

68. Luis B. #1: 294 (-314)

69. Mike S.: 293 (-324)

70. Kevin F.: 292 (-273)

71. Bruce G.: 291 (-310)

72. Ben P.: 288 (-299)

73. Amy D.: 287 (-309)

74. Justin: 284 (-328)

75. Greg F.: 281 (-324)

76. James G. #1: 275 (-313)

77. Dre: 274 (-304)

78. Ben W.: 256 (-332)

79. Daryl J.: 252 (-309)

80. Mandi A.: 252 (-320)

81. Sammie B.: 252 (-346)

82. Dennis R.: 250 (-344)

83. Tony S.: 239 (-336)

84. Jay H. #2: 237 (-324)

85. Max W.: 223 (-395)

86. Easten S.: 214 (-380)

87. Michelle R.: 209 (-382)

88. Jackie S.: 208 (-391)

89. Ally H.: 204 (-376)

But there is still another game tomorrow, which will probably make things a lot more clear.

Here are the eliminations:

If Arkansas State wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Ball State for 27 points.)

Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (Ball State for 29 points.)

James G. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Ball State for 26 points.)

Roth W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place & 3rd contention.  (Ball State for 27 points.)

Roth W. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Ball State for 35 points.)

If Ball State wins:

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Arkansas State for 34 points)

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Arkansas State for 34 points)

James G. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Ball State for 27 points)

Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Arkansas State for 34 points)

No one can lock up a payout place tomorrow, so it looks like it's all going to come down to the BCS Championship game, which only seems right.

Good luck!!!!