After 1/1 Games.

It turned out it was a break-even kind of day, points-wise for our pool.  Most people had Baylor for a ton of points, dragging the average down for the day.  The average person won 3.2 games and netted a whopping 3.3 points.  No one managed to go 6/6, but no one went 0/6 either.  The big net gainer for the day was Sailor Dan, who netted 108 points, going 5/6.  The biggest loser of the day was Max W., who netted -97, going 1/6.

Since so many people picked the same thing (Baylor for a ton of points), the outcome really didn't alter too much.  Only 2 people were dropped from contention with the loss.  That's why these types of games aren't nearly as interesting as, say, the Rose Bowl, which had a lot of points wagered on both sides.

Here are the updated probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Brent E. #3 (25.7812%)

2.: Roth W. #2 (15.625%)

3.: Brent E. #1 (14.0625%)

4.: James G. #2 (12.5%)

5.: Carl B. (11.7187%)

6.: Adam E. (9.375%)

7.: Brent S. #1 (4.6875%)

8.: CJ (3.125%)

9.: Jim W. (2.3437%)

10.: Damien R. #2 (0.7812%)

The amazing thing is that Brent E. #3 has a huge chance of winning despite coming into today in 70th place overall in points, and currently 27th in points.  I think a lot of this may be due to his pick of Arkansas State in the GoDaddy Bowl.  Only 16 people took Arkansas State, and he has them for 34 points.  You can make up a lot of ground doing that.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd place:

1.: Carl B. (17.9687%)

2.: Roth W. #1 (15.625%)

3.: Brent E. #3 (11.7187%)

4.: Brent E. #1 (10.9375%)

5.: CJ (10.1562%)

6.: Roth W. #2 (9.375%)

7.: Jim W. (4.6875%)

8.: Brent S. #1 (3.9062%)

8.: Chris L. #2 (3.9062%)

10.: James G. #2 (3.125%)

10.: Adam E. (3.125%)

12.: Damien R. #2 (2.3437%)

13.: Marc R. #1 (1.5625%)

13.: Jay H. #3 (1.5625%)

We didn't lose anyone in the 2nd place probabilities, although the percentages were rearranged slightly.  Again, when everyone goes one way, there isn't much room for movement.

Here are the probabilities for 3rd place:

1.: Roth W. #2 (17.1875%)

2.: Roth W. #1 (13.2812%)

3.: Carl B. (12.5%)

4.: James G. #2 (10.9375%)

5.: Jim W. (10.1562%)

6.: Adam E. (8.5937%)

7.: Brent S. #1 (7.0312%)

8.: Damien R. #2 (4.6875%)

8.: Jay H. #3 (4.6875%)

10.: CJ (2.3437%)

11.: Brent E. #3 (1.5625%)

11.: Brent E. #1 (1.5625%)

11.: Marc R. #1 (1.5625%)

11.: Klei R. #2 (1.5625%)

11.: Ben P. (1.5625%)

16.: Chris L. #2 (0.7812%)

We only lost one entrant in the third place standings as a result of the Fiesta Bowl, so the remaining people just rearranged percentages.  Not much to see here, except for the excellent chance Roth W. has of getting 3rd place.

Here are the points rankings:

1. Carl B.: 374 (-147)

2. Roth W. #1: 374 (-157)

3. Adam E.: 372 (-191)

4. Roth W. #2: 371 (-152)

5. Brent S. #1: 366 (-169)

6. Kansas C.: 365 (-171)

7. Michelle L. #1: 364 (-176)

8. Damien R. #2: 363 (-187)

9. BAD: 362 (-187)

10. Jim W.: 361 (-168)

11. Matt N.: 351 (-213)

12. Mike L. #2: 347 (-175)

13. CJ: 343 (-154)

14. Miguel D.: 343 (-179)

15. Marc R. #3: 342 (-195)

16. Mike L. #1: 341 (-181)

17. Brent E. #2: 335 (-180)

18. Erica A.: 334 (-163)

19. Tim N.: 334 (-234)

20. James G. #2: 333 (-131)

21. Hutch H. #1: 333 (-201)

22. Damien R. #1: 333 (-231)

23. Kevin W.: 332 (-190)

24. Klei R. #2: 331 (-171)

25. Andy M.: 327 (-184)

26. Scott Her. #2: 325 (-184)

27. Brent E. #3: 324 (-111)

28. Hutch H. #2: 318 (-216)

29. Chris L. #1: 317 (-168)

30. Dave M.: 315 (-191)

31. Larry G. #2: 315 (-200)

32. Brett W.: 315 (-222)

33. Scott Has.: 315 (-224)

34. Chris L. #2: 310 (-166)

35. Karl K.: 310 (-221)

36. Scott Her. #1: 309 (-191)

37. Larry G. #1: 309 (-206)

38. Abel R.: 307 (-180)

39. Amos W.: 307 (-209)

40. Brent S. #2: 307 (-213)

41. Bosun Ava: 306 (-196)

42. Brent E. #1: 305 (-130)

43. Larry G. #3: 299 (-222)

44. Klei R. #1: 298 (-201)

45. Marc R. #2: 296 (-226)

46. Michelle L. #2: 296 (-230)

47. Sally R.: 292 (-227)

48. Luis B. #2: 292 (-261)

49. Bruce G.: 291 (-199)

50. Becky H: 290 (-203)

51. Jay H. #1: 289 (-182)

52. Kevin F.: 289 (-206)

53. Huki Julie: 289 (-214)

54. Ben P.: 288 (-169)

55. Matt J.: 288 (-218)

56. Howard S.: 287 (-218)

57. Jeff W.: 285 (-181)

58. Luis B. #1: 283 (-268)

59. Steve D.: 281 (-219)

60. Sailor Dan: 280 (-218)

61. Peter J. #2: 280 (-228)

62. Jeff D.: 278 (-237)

63. Chad L.: 277 (-197)

64. Marc R. #1: 276 (-159)

65. Peter J. #1: 275 (-233)

66. Brad R.: 275 (-258)

67. Dre: 274 (-224)

68. Shawn S.: 273 (-243)

69. Mike S.: 268 (-255)

70. Mike W.: 265 (-250)

71. Justin: 264 (-275)

72. Amy D.: 260 (-239)

73. Greg F.: 256 (-255)

74. Chad C.: 254 (-227)

75. Daryl J.: 252 (-183)

76. Dennis R.: 250 (-250)

77. Mandi A.: 244 (-273)

78. Jay H. #3: 236 (-199)

79. James G. #1: 221 (-247)

80. DesGru: 219 (-252)

81. Sammie B.: 219 (-260)

82. Ben W.: 218 (-284)

83. Tony S.: 216 (-264)

84. Easten S.: 214 (-256)

85. Jay H. #2: 205 (-230)

86. Ally H.: 202 (-338)

87. Michelle R.: 201 (-327)

88. Max W.: 199 (-326)

89. Jackie S.: 169 (-334)

There is one more game tomorrow, although this one looks to be even more monolithic than the Fiesta Bowl.  The Sugar Bowl pits Alabama vs. Oklahoma, and the median pick is Alabama for 33 points.  It also has the lowest pick variance of any game.  Yawn....

Here are the eliminations:

If Alabama wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Oklahoma for 1 point)

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 30 points)

Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 21 points)

Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (Oklahoma for 30 points)

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Alabama for 30 points)

If Oklahoma wins:

Ben P. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 35 points)

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 30 points)

Chris L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 35 points)

CJ is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 34 points)

James G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Alabama for 34 points)

Klei R. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 35 points)

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Alabama for 30 points)

So, it appears as though there is more at stake here than I originally thought.  Good luck to the remaining 16 sheets that are still alive for the money.  It was a rough day all around and if you survived, that's quite an accomplishment.