After Orange and Cotton Bowls - 1/3

Let me tell anyone that is still paying attention to this pool one of my favorite things about this pool.  I like that you can't just add up the points at any particular time and figure out who is winning.  Case in point is Jim W.  He is currently in 2nd place overall with 3 games to go and he is eliminated from all places.  Carl B. is in 1st place overall in points, but can only get 2nd place.  At the same time, Jay H. #3 is currently in 57th place and he can still get 3rd place.

There are only 10 people left for 3 places, so anyone still around has had some breaks go their way and avoided some of the bigger potholes on the way to the final 3 games.  The nice thing is that we are down to 1 game a day for the next 3, so each game means a lot.

Here are the new probabilities to win:

1.: Brent E. #1 (37.5%)

2.: Brent E. #3 (25%)

3.: Adam E. (12.5%)

3.: Roth W. #2 (12.5%)

3.: James G. #2 (12.5%)

I may have mentioned this before, but there is no way the pool can end in a tie for 1st, which is nice.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd:

1.: Carl B. (50%)

2.: Brent E. #1 (12.5%)

2.: Adam E. (12.5%)

2.: Brent E. #3 (12.5%)

5.: Roth W. #1 (6.25%)

5.: Roth W. #2 (6.25%)

Carl can only win 2nd place, but he's looking pretty good to do that - at least until they play games again, then who knows?  Strange anomaly: there can be a tie for 2nd place, but it would have to be between Roth W. #1 and Roth W. #2.  That is exactly what happened last year to Hutch H.  It would be really strange if that happened 2 years in a row.

Here are the probabilities for 3rd place:

1.: Adam E. (18.75%)

1.: Roth W. #2 (18.75%)

3.: Roth W. #1 (12.5%)

3.: Damien R. #2 (12.5%)

3.: Jay H. #3 (12.5%)

3.: James G. #2 (12.5%)

3.: Brent S. #1 (12.5%)

Adam and Roth W. #1 can tie for 3rd, and Roth W. #2 can get 3rd outright as well as finish in the tie for 2nd that I mentioned earlier, but otherwise it seems almost entirely random.

Here are the current point standings:

1. Carl B.: 392 (-192)

2. Jim W.: 392 (-232)

3. Adam E.: 391 (-201)

4. Roth W. #1: 377 (-196)

5. Roth W. #2: 376 (-189)

6. Kansas C.: 370 (-215)

7. Brent E. #1: 368 (-160)

8. Michelle L. #1: 367 (-210)

9. Brent S. #1: 366 (-213)

10. Damien R. #2: 366 (-223)

11. BAD: 366 (-227)

12. Brent E. #2: 363 (-236)

13. Mike L. #2: 361 (-223)

14. Marc R. #3: 359 (-250)

15. Brent E. #3: 356 (-172)

16. James G. #2: 356 (-193)

17. Klei R. #2: 355 (-209)

18. Mike L. #1: 355 (-229)

19. Matt N.: 355 (-253)

20. Tim N.: 354 (-261)

21. CJ: 353 (-221)

22. Erica A.: 347 (-211)

23. Miguel D.: 343 (-233)

24. Chris L. #1: 337 (-216)

25. Hutch H. #1: 334 (-243)

26. Brett W.: 334 (-252)

27. Damien R. #1: 334 (-272)

28. Kevin W.: 332 (-244)

29. Chris L. #2: 330 (-214)

30. Dave M.: 330 (-238)

31. Larry G. #3: 329 (-255)

32. Hutch H. #2: 328 (-249)

33. Andy M.: 327 (-239)

34. Scott Her. #2: 325 (-236)

35. Bosun Ava: 322 (-250)

35. Larry G. #1: 322 (-250)

37. Jay H. #1: 317 (-244)

38. Klei R. #1: 316 (-253)

39. Brent S. #2: 315 (-256)

40. Larry G. #2: 315 (-257)

41. Scott Has.: 315 (-263)

42. Peter J. #1: 315 (-268)

43. Sailor Dan: 312 (-248)

44. Karl K.: 310 (-267)

45. Scott Her. #1: 309 (-242)

46. Marc R. #1: 308 (-220)

47. Chad L.: 308 (-251)

48. Jeff D.: 308 (-302)

49. Amos W.: 307 (-255)

50. Abel R.: 307 (-260)

51. Michelle L. #2: 305 (-265)

52. Peter J. #2: 304 (-279)

53. Sally R.: 301 (-281)

54. Huki Julie: 299 (-256)

55. Steve D.: 299 (-282)

56. Marc R. #2: 298 (-262)

57. Jay H. #3: 297 (-231)

58. Becky H: 296 (-259)

59. Brad R.: 294 (-303)

60. Luis B. #1: 294 (-310)

61. Jeff W.: 293 (-246)

62. Chad C.: 293 (-254)

63. Luis B. #2: 292 (-314)

64. Kevin F.: 291 (-273)

65. Bruce G.: 291 (-301)

66. Ben P.: 288 (-268)

67. Matt J.: 288 (-284)

68. Howard S.: 287 (-275)

69. Amy D.: 287 (-302)

70. Mike W.: 286 (-279)

71. Shawn S.: 286 (-306)

72. Justin: 280 (-328)

73. Mike S.: 276 (-324)

74. DesGru: 274 (-281)

75. Dre: 274 (-297)

76. Greg F.: 272 (-324)

77. Ben W.: 256 (-319)

78. Daryl J.: 252 (-276)

79. Mandi A.: 252 (-299)

80. James G. #1: 251 (-313)

81. Dennis R.: 250 (-342)

82. Tony S.: 239 (-329)

83. Jay H. #2: 237 (-291)

84. Max W.: 223 (-388)

85. Sammie B.: 219 (-346)

86. Easten S.: 214 (-351)

87. Ally H.: 202 (-376)

88. Michelle R.: 201 (-382)

89. Jackie S.: 182 (-391)

Tomorrow is one of the last 3 games of the season.  The last game is the BCS Championship Game, but these next 2 games seem to make just as much difference as any of the other BCS games - which is strange, since they aren't much better games than some of the earlier bowls.  And by "earlier bowls" I mean bowls like the Hawaii Bowl or the Pinstripe Bowl.  They seem to take on outsized importance in large part to the people that only go 1-35.  The more I think about that strategy, the more I realize that I hate it.  I know I've mentioned it before, but it really is a lazy way to assign points.  I think I'm railing against that type of picking from now on.  It's totally lazy and I'd just as soon not pay out to lazy people.  It's not quite as bad as picking only by the seeds in the NCAA tournament, but it's still bad.

Anyway, tomorrow morning is the BBVA Compass bowl between Vanderbilt and Houston.  Here are the eliminations:

If Houston Wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Houston for 9 points)

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Vanderbilt for 33 points)

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (Vanderbilt for 33 points)

Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (Vanderbilt for 14 points)

James G. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.   (Vanderbilt for 24 points)

Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (Vanderbilt for 33 points)

Roth W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (Vanderbilt for 7 points)

Roth W. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (Houston for 7 points)

If Vanderbilt Wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.  (Houston for 9 points)

Carl B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (Houston for 13 points)

Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (Houston for 2 points)

Roth W. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.   (Houston for 7 points)

Probably the most interested watcher of tomorrow's game should be Carl B.  Based on the results of tomorrow's game, he could be the first person to lock up a payout.  If Houston wins the game, he will win 2nd place regardless of the results of the last 2 games.  If Vanderbilt wins, he won't win anything.  It seems like a lot for only having risked 13 points, but that's how the math shakes out.  Good luck Carl B.!!!