After Alamo Bowl

If you read yesterday’s post, you’ll remember that I was a little baffles as to why so many people were taking Auburn and Washington State for o many points given that the point spreads in Vegas for these games weren’t all that high.  I thought there was probably some good value in going against the grain and picking Purdue and Iowa State.  Turns out I was loud wrong about that.  It also may explain why I am mired near the bottom of the table in this pool.

So, Syracuse was the only upset of the day.  Even they weren’t that big of an upset.  Remember that the same amount of points were wagered on them as West Virginia.  That means that we as a group averaged 2.06 wins for 44.97 points and losses on average of only 18.24.  That ends a 2 day trend of netting negative points.  A whopping 20 people managed to go 3/3, while only 2 people went 0/3.

Here are the top 5 point gainers today:

1.       Jay H. #3 (79 points / 3 wins)

2.       Ryan W. (74 points / 3 wins)

3.       Becky H. (74 points / 3 wins)

4.       Nick S. (73 points / 3 wins)

5.       Dan Dz. (71 points / 2 wins)

The biggest droppers in the net points rankings are:

1.       Kevin W. (13^th to 48^th / -71 points / 0 wins)

2.       Emily J. (9^th to 36^th / -38 points / 1 win)

3.       Jim D. (21^st to 40^th / -5 points / 2 wins)

4.       Sally R. (17^th to 29^th / +12 points / 2 wins)

5.       Bosun S. (39^th to 51^st / -24 points / 1 win)

Strange movement today.  You can see that some people actually moved way down in the rankings despite netting positive points today.  That’s because so many people gained so many points that only netting 12 points means you were overtaken by others in the stream.  Interesting phenomena.

Here are the biggest jumpers in the net point standings:

1.       Jay H. #3 (44^th to 23^rd / +79 points / 3 wins)

2.       Nick S. (40^th to 22^nd / +73 points / 3 wins)

3.       Ryan W. (43^rd to 25^th / +74 points / 3 wins)

4.       Becky H. (24^th to 11^th / +74 points / 3 wins)

5.       Jason S. (25^th to 13^th / +69 points / 3 wins)

6.       Brent E. #2 (32^nd to 20^th / +56 points / 2 wins)

Here is the total points rankings:

1. Dylan B.: 376 (-65)

2. Nick S.: 373 (-271)

3. Andrzej R.: 319 (-133)

4. Marc R.: 300 (-120)

5. Pete J. #1: 287 (-131)

6. Jason S.: 286 (-157)

7. Sally R.: 284 (-191)

8. Jay H. #1: 282 (-127)

9. Mike S.: 281 (-111)

10. Brad R.: 276 (-194)

11. Scott Has.: 271 (-94)

12. Becky H.: 269 (-131)

13. Jim W.: 268 (-118)

14. Peter F.: 268 (-183)

15. Michelle L. #1: 265 (-132)

16. Pete J. #2: 265 (-153)

17. Josiah T. #4: 263 (-87)

18. Brent E. #3: 263 (-135)

19. Josiah T. #3: 262 (-177)

20. Brent E. #2: 258 (-152)

21. Harrell R. #2: 254 (-151)

22. Brett W.: 254 (-158)

23. Matt N.: 253 (-198)

24. Dan Du.: 252 (-105)

25. Dan Dz.: 251 (-142)

26. Ally H.: 251 (-178)

27. Josiah T. #2: 247 (-136)

28. Brent E. #4: 247 (-151)

29. Grant F.: 247 (-174)

30. Hutch H.: 246 (-120)

31. Brent E. #1: 246 (-152)

32. Harrell R. #1: 242 (-149)

33. Jim D.: 239 (-167)

34. Emily J.: 237 (-157)

35. Jay H. #3: 236 (-135)

36. James P.: 233 (-160)

37. Ben S. #2: 232 (-174)

38. Ryan W.: 228 (-131)

39. Eric V.: 224 (-110)

40. Ben S. #1: 224 (-159)

41. Adam E.: 222 (-136)

42. Klei R.: 222 (-246)

43. Damien R. #1: 212 (-284)

44. Josiah T. #1: 210 (-173)

45. Tim N.: 206 (-205)

46. Kevin W.: 205 (-178)

47. Julie S.: 200 (-101)

48. Scott Her. #2: 195 (-169)

49. Dustin B.: 191 (-183)

50. Damien R. #2: 187 (-235)

51. Eric L.: 184 (-93)

52. Max W. #2: 184 (-113)

53. Max W. #1: 180 (-124)

54. Craig G.: 178 (-237)

55. Scott Her. #1: 170 (-201)

56. Ashley D.: 169 (-183)

57. Mike W.: 168 (-108)

58. Nichole W.: 163 (-203)

59. Ava S.: 159 (-142)

60. Michelle L. #2: 159 (-190)

61. Mike N.: 159 (-194)

62. Bosun S.: 156 (-145)

63. Justin H.: 150 (-158)

64. Dan S.: 149 (-152)

65. Amos W.: 147 (-179)

66. Jay H. #2: 120 (-291)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Dylan B.: 311

2. Andrzej R.: 186

3. Marc R.: 180

4. Scott Has.: 177

5. Josiah T. #4: 176

6. Mike S.: 170

7. Pete J. #1: 156

8. Jay H. #1: 155

9. Jim W.: 150

10. Dan Du.: 147

11. Becky H.: 138

12. Michelle L. #1: 133

13. Jason S.: 129

14. Brent E. #3: 128

15. Hutch H.: 126

16. Eric V.: 114

17. Pete J. #2: 112

18. Josiah T. #2: 111

19. Dan Dz.: 109

20. Brent E. #2: 106

21. Harrell R. #2: 103

22. Nick S.: 102

23. Jay H. #3: 101

24. Julie S.: 99

25. Ryan W.: 97

26. Brett W.: 96

26. Brent E. #4: 96

28. Brent E. #1: 94

29. Sally R.: 93

29. Harrell R. #1: 93

31. Eric L.: 91

32. Adam E.: 86

33. Peter F.: 85

33. Josiah T. #3: 85

35. Brad R.: 82

36. Emily J.: 80

37. Ally H.: 73

37. Grant F.: 73

37. James P.: 73

40. Jim D.: 72

41. Max W. #2: 71

42. Ben S. #1: 65

43. Mike W.: 60

44. Ben S. #2: 58

45. Max W. #1: 56

46. Matt N.: 55

47. Josiah T. #1: 37

48. Kevin W.: 27

49. Scott Her. #2: 26

50. Ava S.: 17

51. Bosun S.: 11

52. Dustin B.: 8

53. Tim N.: 1

54. Dan S.: -3

55. Justin H.: -8

56. Ashley D.: -14

57. Klei R.: -24

58. Scott Her. #1: -31

58. Michelle L. #2: -31

60. Amos W.: -32

61. Mike N.: -35

62. Nichole W.: -40

63. Damien R. #2: -48

64. Craig G.: -59

65. Damien R. #1: -72

66. Jay H. #2: -171

I didn’t check this, but I’m pretty sure that Dylan B. extended his lead in the net points.  Unless he fades down the stretch here, he is going to wrap this pool up in relatively short order.  At least it looks like there’s a lot of competition for 2^nd and 3^rd place.

There are 5 games going off tomorrow.  There are a few things that are good about that.  One is that there are no games on Sunday, so I can calculate probabilities of winning on Sunday.  Games will start up again on Monday.  Also, the National Semi-final games are tomorrow, so I don’t have to do that weird thing in my calculation spreadsheet where I calculate probabilities with 4 potential winners in the Championship game.  I’m sure most of you don’t care at all about that, but it helps me a little.

All right, it’s late, so here are the games tomorrow:

Belk Bowl:

Picks:

South Carolina: 47 (20.70 pts average)

Virginia: 19 (13.89 pts average)

Median Pick: South Carolina for 18 points.

Mean Pick: South Carolina for 10.7 points.

Total points wagered: 1,237 (24^th overall).

Vegas Line: South Carolina (-4.5)

Everyone loves South Carolina.  I don’t care about either of these teams.  I have no comment.  Yawn…..

Peach Bowl:

Picks:

Michigan: 59 (30.00 pts average)

Florida: 7 (17.86 pts average)

Median Pick: Michigan for 31 points.

Mean Pick: Michigan for 24.9 points.

Total points wagered: 1,895 (5^th overall).

Vegas Line: Michigan (-6)

By the time this game goes off, it will be the game with the most points wagered on it by far.  Up until now, the only top 10 game was the Potato Bowl.  As you can see, almost no one likes Florida in this game.  As a matter of fact, the large spike of people that only took Michigan for 15 points should really be rooting for Florida.  I have a bad feeling that at least 2 other games today are going to look like this….

Arizona Bowl:

Picks:

Nevada: 34 (16.47 pts average)

Arkansas State: 32 (14.09 pts average)

Median Pick: Nevada for 2.5 points.

Mean Pick: Nevada for 1.5 points.

Total points wagered: 1,011 (33^rd overall).

Vegas Line: Nevada (-1.5)

Why is this game going of tomorrow?  It seems like there are a bunch of big name teams playing tomorrow, and then there’s this game.  Will anyone actually watch this game?  It’s the game with the fewest points wagered on it left in the pool.  It might be a pretty good game given the point spread, but you’d have to be a real college football purist to watch these teams.  I can’t imagine they have any national appeal.  Maybe not the best scheduling from the Arizona Bowl committee.

Cotton Bowl:

Picks:

Clemson: 51 (31.16 pts average)

Notre Dame: 15 (20.27 pts average)

Median Pick: Clemson for 30 points.

Mean Pick: Clemson for 20 points.

Total points wagered: 1,893 (6^th overall).

Vegas Line: Clemson (-12)

Yikes.  I think this ties for the biggest point spread so far in the pool.  Given this game and the next game, you could make a decent case that they shouldn’t have a 4 team tournament for the Championship.  Just line Clemson and Alabama up and play.  I actually don’t mind the 4 team set up, but this might just not be a close game.  Then again, I don’t know anything about Notre Dame this year.  Maybe they’ll surprise me.  I hope not though.  I have no love for Notre Dame.

Orange Bowl:

Picks:

Alabama: 59 (32.66 pts average)

Oklahoma: 7 (16.86 pts average)

Median Pick: Alabama for 36.5 points.

Mean Pick: Alabama for 28.2 points.

Total points wagered: 2,045 (2^nd overall).

Vegas Line: Alabama (-14)

About as skew a pick distribution as you will ever see.  It’s pretty bad when you are better off picking against the team that you put 34 points on to lose to move up in the standings, but that’s where we are.  I expect this to be a laugher, but I’m sure I’ll watch entirely too much of it.

OK.  I’ll be back tomorrow night with updates standings.  I’ll spend Sunday cranking out probabilities and I’ll explain all that when I have them calculated.  I just hope I’m alive for something by the time I’m done.

Good luck to everyone!!!!