After Texas Bowl

Another 3 games down, and things are looking a little more clear.  We’ve reached the half way point in terms of games played, but the average entry has only used 40.26% of the total points.  That means some wild swings are still possible in the upcoming games.

As for today, 2 of the 3 games ended in upsets, so if you were daring, you got payed off today for the most part.  The average entry today won 1.41 games for a total of 26.20 points and a loss of 29.83.  This was another negative day for us as a group.  6 people went 3/3 today including both my Mom and Dad.  As a matter off act, my Mom and Dad finished the day with the most points.  Here were the top 5:

1.       Brad R. (72 points / 3 wins)

2.       Sally R. (71 points / 3 wins)

3.       Damien R. #2 (62 points / 2 wins)

4.       Julie S. (60 points / 3 wins)

5.       Damien R. #1 (56 points / 2 wins)

5.       Brett W. (56 points / 3 wins)

I decided to change my analysis of the rank movement.  I was doing it for points only, but the net points is more indicative of the overall health of the entry, plus it’s more interesting since you can actually lose points in that ranking, where as the points only, the only penalty of missing a game is you get 0 points.

So, with that being said, here are the 5 biggest droppers in the net points rankings:

1.       Dustin B. (27^th to 54^th / -83 net points / 0 wins)

2.       Ben S. #2 (19^th to 41^st / -59 net points / 0 wins)

3.       Justin H. (27^th to 49^th / -75 net points / 0 wins)

4.       Ben S. #1 (30^th to 46^th / -54 net points / 0 wins)

5.       Jim D. (6^th to 21^st / -64 net points / 0 wins)

6.       Grant F. (19^th to 34^th / -38 net points / 1 win)

7.       Matt N. (29^th to 44^th / -47 net points / 0 wins)

Ouch.  There were a grand total of 11 people that managed to go 0/3 today, and you can see 6 of them above.  The least scathed of that group was Scott Her. #2, who managed to only lose 33 points.  That’s keeping the damage to a minimum.

On the other side, there were some pretty big movers up the standings:

1.       Sally R. (46^th to 17^th / +71 points / 3 wins)

2.       Julies S. (49^th to 27^th / +60 points / 3 wins)

3.       Brad R. (54^th to 32^nd / +72 points / 3 wins)

4.       Mike S. (30^th to 10^th / +44 points / 3 wins)

5.       Brent E. #3 (34^th to 15^th / +36 points / 2 wins)

6.       Brett W. (39^th to 20^th / +35 points / 2 wins)

The other big thing to notice is that Dylan B. seems to be running away with this pool.  In total points, he only has a 21 point lead, but he has a 101 point lead in the critical net point rankings.  That is more than any one game could possibly make up.  Amazingly, he is not in the lead for most games picked correctly.  So far, he has 14 games correct.  Eric L. and Scott Has. Have both picked 15 games correctly so far.  The way he has got this big of a lead is a combination of a few factors.  One, he’s got a lot of games correct (14/20).  Of the games he’s won, he’s gained 22.93 points.  That is significantly better than other entries that have won a comparable number of games.  Of that same group, he also has only lost 10.83 points when he’s lost a game.  That is less than anyone else in that group.  So far, it’s been a master class of maximizing opportunities and minimizing losses.  Great job so far.  Then again, there’s still a long way to go, and as long as people are still mathematically alive, there’s always a chance.

Here is the total points rankings:

1. Dylan B.: 321 (-65)

2. Nick S.: 300 (-271)

3. Andrzej R.: 269 (-133)

4. Marc R.: 264 (-120)

5. Sally R.: 254 (-173)

6. Pete J. #1: 247 (-118)

7. Jay H. #1: 236 (-127)

8. Scott Has.: 228 (-73)

9. Michelle L. #1: 226 (-101)

10. Hutch H.: 223 (-117)

11. Brad R.: 223 (-173)

12. Mike S.: 222 (-111)

13. Pete J. #2: 222 (-143)

14. Grant F.: 221 (-174)

15. Emily J.: 218 (-100)

16. Dan Du.: 217 (-69)

17. Jason S.: 217 (-157)

18. Josiah T. #3: 216 (-173)

19. Josiah T. #4: 211 (-84)

20. Peter F.: 209 (-183)

21. Brent E. #3: 207 (-123)

22. Harrell R. #2: 207 (-151)

23. Kevin W.: 205 (-107)

24. Jim D.: 203 (-136)

25. James P.: 202 (-148)

26. Damien R. #1: 201 (-237)

27. Jim W.: 200 (-118)

28. Harrell R. #1: 199 (-122)

29. Tim N.: 196 (-200)

30. Becky H.: 195 (-131)

31. Brett W.: 193 (-123)

32. Josiah T. #2: 192 (-136)

33. Brent E. #4: 191 (-139)

34. Ally H.: 191 (-153)

35. Matt N.: 191 (-169)

36. Brent E. #2: 190 (-140)

37. Adam E.: 189 (-122)

38. Ben S. #2: 189 (-163)

39. Dan Dz.: 180 (-120)

40. Brent E. #1: 178 (-140)

41. Eric V.: 174 (-86)

42. Ben S. #1: 172 (-159)

43. Damien R. #2: 163 (-174)

44. Klei R.: 159 (-246)

45. Jay H. #3: 157 (-135)

46. Scott Her. #2: 156 (-157)

47. Josiah T. #1: 155 (-173)

48. Ryan W.: 154 (-131)

49. Nichole W.: 154 (-190)

50. Michelle L. #2: 146 (-164)

51. Craig G.: 144 (-196)

52. Julie S.: 143 (-84)

53. Eric L.: 138 (-72)

54. Dustin B.: 136 (-148)

55. Max W. #2: 135 (-95)

56. Scott Her. #1: 135 (-174)

57. Justin H.: 134 (-138)

58. Bosun S.: 131 (-96)

59. Ashley D.: 131 (-145)

60. Mike N.: 128 (-138)

61. Jay H. #2: 120 (-211)

62. Amos W.: 115 (-141)

63. Max W. #1: 113 (-124)

64. Mike W.: 106 (-108)

65. Ava S.: 102 (-125)

66. Dan S.: 92 (-135)

…and the net points:

1. Dylan B.: 256

2. Scott Has.: 155

3. Dan Du.: 148

4. Marc R.: 144

5. Andrzej R.: 136

6. Pete J. #1: 129

7. Josiah T. #4: 127

8. Michelle L. #1: 125

9. Emily J.: 118

10. Mike S.: 111

11. Jay H. #1: 109

12. Hutch H.: 106

13. Kevin W.: 98

14. Eric V.: 88

15. Brent E. #3: 84

16. Jim W.: 82

17. Sally R.: 81

18. Pete J. #2: 79

19. Harrell R. #1: 77

20. Brett W.: 70

21. Jim D.: 67

21. Adam E.: 67

23. Eric L.: 66

24. Becky H.: 64

25. Jason S.: 60

25. Dan Dz.: 60

27. Julie S.: 59

28. Harrell R. #2: 56

28. Josiah T. #2: 56

30. James P.: 54

31. Brent E. #4: 52

32. Brad R.: 50

32. Brent E. #2: 50

34. Grant F.: 47

35. Josiah T. #3: 43

36. Max W. #2: 40

37. Ally H.: 38

37. Brent E. #1: 38

39. Bosun S.: 35

40. Nick S.: 29

41. Peter F.: 26

41. Ben S. #2: 26

43. Ryan W.: 23

44. Matt N.: 22

44. Jay H. #3: 22

46. Ben S. #1: 13

47. Scott Her. #2: -1

48. Mike W.: -2

49. Tim N.: -4

49. Justin H.: -4

51. Mike N.: -10

52. Damien R. #2: -11

52. Max W. #1: -11

54. Dustin B.: -12

55. Ashley D.: -14

56. Josiah T. #1: -18

56. Michelle L. #2: -18

58. Ava S.: -23

59. Amos W.: -26

60. Damien R. #1: -36

60. Nichole W.: -36

62. Scott Her. #1: -39

63. Dan S.: -43

64. Craig G.: -52

65. Klei R.: -87

66. Jay H. #2: -91

But tomorrow is another day, so we have another triple header of games.  Another opportunity to rocket up the standings or fade into obscurity.

Music City Bowl:

Picks:

Auburn: 48 (21.94 pts average)

Purdue: 18 (18.67 pts average)

Median Pick: Auburn for 17 points.

Mean Pick: Auburn for 11.2 points.

Total points wagered: 1,389 (17^th overall).

Vegas Line: Auburn (-3.5)

If I were to cheat, today would be a great day to take a few chances.  This first game is a great example.  The Vegas Line is only 3.5, but people seem to be treating it as if it’s a much bigger spread.  That means that there is some value in taking Purdue.  Actually, the correct way to read the median score metric is that if you took Auburn for say 10 points, you are better off having Purdue win since you will lose less than ½ the field.  My best guess for why the picks are distributed this way is history.  Purdue probably hasn’t been relevant since the Drew Brees era, whereas Auburn always seems to be ranked in the top 10.

Camping World Bowl

Picks:

West Virginia: 34 (19.26 pts average)

Syracuse: 32 (20.44 pts average)

Median Pick: West Virginia for 3.5 points.

Mean Pick: West Virginia for 0.1 points.

Total points wagered: 1,309 (20^th overall).

Vegas Line: Syracuse (-2.5)

This one really confuses me.  By all accounts, this game should be really close to the bottom of the rankings based on average pick.  The average pick is essentially 0, so almost as many points are wagered on both sides, but the people that took a side did so for quite a few points.  That’s really strange.  This is also one of those rare games where the average points wagered on the team with the fewer people picking it is higher than that of the team with fewer picks.  This also is one of the games where the team that has the most people picking it is not the favorite, making this another good value pick for Syracuse.  Of course, they have to play the game and as we’ve seen the last few days, a 2.5 point spread doesn’t mean all that much.

Alamo Bowl:

Picks:

Washington State: 56 (22.52 pts average)

Iowa State: 10 (21.30 pts average)

Median Pick: Washington State for 21 points.

Mean Pick: Washington State for 16.4 points.

Total points wagered: 1,474 (15^th overall).

Vegas Line: Washington State (-2.5)

Wow.  If those first 2 games didn’t make any sense, this one really doesn’t.  Everyone LOVES Washington State in this game.  The people that like Iowa State, really like Iowa State.  This could be really interesting.  2.5 points is not much, and it certainly wouldn’t think to result in a pick distribution like we are seeing above.  This looks like another great value pick for the underdog.  We will see, however.

Good luck to everyone!!!