Saturday, December 15, 2018

Welcome to the 2018-19 Bowl Pool


Hello again everyone.  It’s time again to celebrate the bacchanalia that is college bowl season!  There are some gaps in some people’s sheets that need to be fixed, but for the most part everyone was able to successfully navigate the entry process.  There were maybe 5 or 6 people that managed to leave the winner of the Championship game blank, which would result in 0 points for a game that is 30 fixed points.  I’m sure those will get resolved in short order.  Don’t worry.  If I haven’t sent you an e-mail about it, your entry is fine.

I didn’t do a whole lot of extra advertising of the pool this year.  I didn’t try recruiting people from my new office, and yet we still wound up with more entries this year than we had last year.  Last year, we had 56 entries.  This year we have 63.  That means I’ll be paying out 3 spots again.  For those that have entered more than one entry, remember that the nature of this pool is that if you picked all the same teams, but divided up the points differently, it’s entirely possible to get more than one of the final 3 places.  In order to make it more fair to everyone, you can only win one spot.  If you happen to finish both 1st and 2nd, you’ll get paid for 1st, but 2nd will go to the entry with the next most points.  That keeps one person from monopolizing all the payouts.  Hopefully, that’s not something we will have to worry about.

The payout structure is going to be 50/35/15 this year.  Since we took in 63 * 5 = $315, that means:

1st place = $157.50
2nd place = $110.25
3rd place = $47.25

But games have already started.  Here’s the particulars around what is maybe my favorite Bowl game of the season, the Celebration Bowl:

Picks:
North Carolina A&T: 51 (19.96 pts average)
Alcorn State: 12 (4.08 pts average)
Median Pick: North Carolina A&T for 19 points.
Mean Pick: North Carolina A&T for 15.4 points.
Total points wagered: 1067 (31st overall).
Vegas Line: North Carolina A&T (-8)

I love this game because depending on where you went to look for information, it may not have even been listed, so a lot of people were probably operating with a bare minimum of information.  Plus, this game tends to be pretty exciting.  The teams aren’t that great compared to some of the other powerhouses we’ll see later, but for HBCU’s, this is pretty much the SuperBowl.  That means that you are guaranteed to see two teams playing pretty hard, and that’s really what I like best about college football.

The second game of the day is the New Mexico Bowl

Picks:
Utah State: 56 (26.41 pts average)
North Texas: 7 (7.57 pts average)
Median Pick: Utah State for 30 points.
Mean Pick: Utah State for 22.6 points.
Total points wagered: 1532 (11th overall).
Vegas Line: Utah State (-7.5)


This is a great example of why the Celebration Bowl is so great.  These games should be more or less the same.  The Vegas Line is almost exactly the same, but this game had information on it that was much easier to find.  As a result, people put almost 10 more points on this game than the Celebration Bowl.  For those that wonder why I bother with the median pick data point, I think it’s more useful than the mean, and you can see from the graph above why that would be.  There was one person that took North Texas (Go Mean Green!) for 34 points.  That skews the arithmetic average.  The way I think of the median is that if your pick is above the median, if you win, you are probably moving up in the standings.  If your pick is below the median, things get interesting.  For example, the median for this game is Utah State for 30.  If you have Utah State for 15, you are below the median, so you probably are better served having North Texas win this game.  The payoff won’t be immediate (since you’d still get 0 points), but you would be losing a lot fewer points than the >1/2 the field that took Utah State.  I always think those situations are entertaining.  Obviously, if you were brave enough to take North Texas, you want them to win.

The third game of the day is the Cure Bowl:

Picks:
Tulane: 37 (10.38 pts average)
Louisiana – Lafayette: 26 (8.62 pts average)
Median Pick: Tulane for 3 points.
Mean Pick: Tulane for 2.5 points.
Total points wagered: 608 (41st overall - Last).
Vegas Line: Tulane (-3.5)


God bless anyone that put a ton of points on this game.  Despite it having the fewest amount of points wagered on it, it is not the Bowl game that has the fewest people putting it in their top 10.  There are 3 Bowl games that have fewer.  As it is, only 4 people put 31 or more points on this game, and as you can see form the distribution, there is no consensus on what team that should be.  There are a lot of reasons to like this bowl, despite it being an after thought for most people.  One, the mascots of the two teams are among my favorites (Tulane Green Wave, Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns).  Another is that it’s really nice of College football to honor 2018 Rock and Roll Hall of Famers, the Cure.  I’m sure I make that joke every year, and it never gets better.

But wait, there’s more – a lot more.  There are 3 more Bowl Games to go.

The next game is the Las Vegas Bowl:

Picks:
Fresno State: 38 (19.47 pts average)
Arizona State: 25 (12.40 pts average)
Median Pick: Fresno State for 7 points.
Mean Pick: Fresno State for 6.8 points.
Total points wagered: 1050 (33rd overall).
Vegas Line: Fresno State (-5)

  
Man, these games get pretty generic pretty quick.  Is there anything to differentiate this game from any of the others.  Both teams are pretty mediocre.  I guess Herm Edwards coaching for Arizona State is an interesting thing (You play to WIN THE GAME), but not much unless you have some connection to either school.  That being said, 12 people put this game in their top 10.  There you go.  That’s a reason to watch this game, especially Jason S. who has Arizona State for 40 points.  That’s some grade A choice picking if it works.  You all should know by now that I love brave picking.  Next game…..

The Camellia Bowl

Picks:
Georgia Southern: 36 (12.14 pts average)
Eastern Michigan: 27 (8.85 pts average)
Median Pick: Georgia Southern for 3 points.
Mean Pick: Georgia Southern for 3.1 points.
Total points wagered: 676 (40th overall – next to last).
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern (-3)


If you didn’t have a reason to watch the Las Vegas Bowl, you probably really don’t have a reason to watch the Camellia Bowl.  For one, I never know just what a camellia is, much less how to spell it.  I’m guessing it’s a flower that grows in Alabama, since that’s where the game is played (kind of like the now defunct Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego).  Anyway, we have the two Bowl games with the fewest point wagered on this in one day.  At least we get these games out of the way early.  I have a personal connection to this game.  One, I went to a MAC school for undergrad, so I feel compelled to root for MAC schools and two, my aunt is an alumni of Eastern Michigan.  I also think she used to work in the athletic department at one point when they were named the Hurons.  That’s probably not enough for most people to spend 3 hours plus watching this game.  This is one of those games where only 3 people have it in their top 10.


The New Orleans Bowl:

Picks:
Appalachian State: 50 (22.34 pts average)
Middle Tennessee: 13 (11.31 pts average)
Median Pick: Appalachian State for 17 points.
Mean Pick: Appalachian State for 15.4 points.
Total points wagered: 1,264 (21st overall).
Vegas Line: Appalachian State (-7)


Serious question, what makes this game any different from the New Mexico Bowl?  Let’s compare:  The favorite for both games is favored by about 7 points.  They both feature teams that don’t come from power 5 conferences.  Why then, is the New Mexico Bowl 11th in points wagered and the New Orleans Bowl is 21st?  I honestly can’t see much daylight between these games.  They even both start with the word “New”.  I guess one game is played in a dome and the other is outside?  I don’t know.  I grasping at straws here.  Nobody in either game is raked, although I think that Appalachian State was earlier this season.  That might make you think that people might take them in this game more, but that didn’t really happen.  Strange picking.  Not sure I understand it, but I’m just administrating.

So, those are the 6 games going off today.  We won’t see another day this packed for a while.  Games start to come in one at a time for the next few days, which is better for me.  I’ll be sending out standings next update.  I’ll give an explanation of those when I do.  I offer 2 rankings for now:  Total Points & Net Points.  As the number of games dwindles, I’ll generate the probabilities of winning the pool.  That won’t be for a little bit yet.  In the meantime, enjoy the games, or don’t.  I’ll be keeping track of things whatever level of interaction you have.

One last note, if you haven’t paid yet, make sure you don’t forget to do that.  This isn’t a charity.  Thanks!

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