After Orange Bowl

Today was an interesting day.  There were some surprised early, and then some highly predictable outcomes late.  There were some interesting dynamics in the late games.  People that picked Alabama or Clemson actually moved down in the net standings because they didn’t pick them for enough points.  There were giant moves within the day where people shot way up in the standings after one game only to fall right back down after the next game.  In the end, everyone came away with some points, but there was significant shake up the net points standings.

As I mentioned, there were some big upsets.  Prior to today the team that had the most points wagered on it that had lost was Memphis in the Bahama Bowl.  Today had 2 teams that surpassed Memphis.  South Carolina was one spot higher (19^th most points wagered on it) who lost to Virginia.  Following that was probably the biggest upset of the pool as Michigan got crushed in the second half to fall to an ignominious defeat.  Michigan was the team that had the 5^th most points wagered on it.  Yikes….

Tons of people had Clemson and Alabama in the later games to get us back to some level of equilibrium.  The average entry today won 2.58 games.  Th3 average entry won 67.65 points but lost 54.79, which seems about right based on the outcomes of the games.  The trick was maximizing the wins and minimizing the losses.

Exactly one person managed to go 5/5 today.  That person was Ryan W.  He has, in fact picked the correct team in the last 12 games, which is quite an amazing run.  Great picking Ryan W.

Here were the top 5 entries in terms of total points today:

1. Ryan W.: 119 (0)

2. Jay H. #3: 105 (-30)

3. Ally H.: 102 (-51)

4. Klei R.: 100 (-15)

5. Dan Du.: 98 (-50)

…and the top 5 in net points:

1. Ryan W.: 119

2. Klei R.: 85

3. Jay H. #3: 75

4. Brad R.: 71

5. Josiah T. #3: 63

The biggest droppers in the net point rankings today were:

1.       Brent E. #3 (14^th to 46^th / -80 net points / 1 win)

2.       Dan Dz. (19^th to 46^th / -61 net points / 1 win)

3.       Sally R. (29^th to 56^th / -89 net points / 1 win)

4.       Nick S. (22^nd to 43^rd / -42 net points / 1 win)

5.       Pete J. #2 (17^th to 36^th / -34 net points / 2 wins)

6.       Josiah T. #2 (18^th to 37^th / -37 net points / 1 win)

The biggest risers in the net points were:

1.       Ryan W. (25^th to 4^th / +119 net points / 5 wins)

2.       Brad R. (35^th to 14^th / +71 net points / 4 wins)

3.       Josiah T. #3 (33^rd to 17^th / +63 net points / 4 wins)

4.       Ally H. (37^th to 21^st / +51 net points / 3 wins)

5.       Mike W. (43^rd to 27^th / +39 net points / 3 wins)

I’m a little surprised to see Josiah T in both the top 5 and bottom 5 for movement in the net points standings.  I guess that’s why you enter more than once.  It also is a credit to him for not just picking the same teams with different points, but picking some actual different outcomes.

It doesn’t look like much is slowing down the Dylan B. freight train.  He extended his lead in net points by 3 points today.  Lots of people keep bubbling up to the top 5 or top 10, but no one seems to get close to Dylan B.  He also took over the top picker, being the only person to get 20 correct so far.

Here are the total points rankings:

1. Dylan B.: 459 (-103)

2. Andrzej R.: 391 (-163)

3. Nick S.: 387 (-327)

4. Marc R.: 368 (-150)

5. Mike S.: 368 (-158)

6. Brad R.: 357 (-204)

7. Jason S.: 356 (-220)

8. Josiah T. #3: 353 (-205)

9. Ally H.: 353 (-229)

10. Dan Du.: 350 (-155)

11. Scott Has.: 348 (-167)

12. Ryan W.: 347 (-131)

13. Jim W.: 345 (-173)

14. Jay H. #3: 341 (-165)

15. Becky H.: 341 (-171)

16. Michelle L. #1: 340 (-171)

17. Peter F.: 339 (-229)

18. Pete J. #1: 337 (-181)

19. Matt N.: 330 (-260)

20. Josiah T. #4: 327 (-157)

21. Harrell R. #2: 326 (-180)

22. Klei R.: 322 (-261)

23. Hutch H.: 321 (-170)

24. Grant F.: 319 (-234)

25. James P.: 318 (-214)

26. Ben S. #2: 318 (-229)

27. Brent E. #2: 317 (-227)

28. Jay H. #1: 315 (-184)

29. Harrell R. #1: 312 (-194)

30. Brent E. #4: 308 (-224)

31. Ben S. #1: 307 (-213)

32. Jim D.: 306 (-234)

33. Brent E. #1: 305 (-239)

34. Pete J. #2: 298 (-220)

35. Adam E.: 297 (-195)

36. Julie S.: 295 (-145)

37. Josiah T. #1: 292 (-226)

38. Brett W.: 291 (-236)

39. Brent E. #3: 290 (-242)

40. Josiah T. #2: 286 (-212)

41. Sally R.: 286 (-282)

42. Damien R. #1: 284 (-329)

43. Eric V.: 283 (-179)

44. Kevin W.: 272 (-218)

45. Emily J.: 271 (-243)

46. Max W. #2: 266 (-174)

47. Mike W.: 262 (-163)

48. Dustin B.: 261 (-214)

49. Scott Her. #1: 260 (-260)

50. Eric L.: 259 (-167)

51. Max W. #1: 258 (-177)

52. Damien R. #2: 258 (-258)

53. Dan Dz.: 254 (-206)

54. Tim N.: 248 (-224)

55. Scott Her. #2: 248 (-236)

56. Amos W.: 243 (-225)

57. Michelle L. #2: 242 (-220)

58. Mike N.: 240 (-231)

59. Ashley D.: 239 (-246)

60. Bosun S.: 238 (-202)

61. Craig G.: 237 (-288)

62. Justin H.: 227 (-234)

63. Ava S.: 215 (-225)

64. Nichole W.: 200 (-301)

65. Dan S.: 170 (-270)

66. Jay H. #2: 168 (-338)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Dylan B.: 356

2. Andrzej R.: 228

3. Marc R.: 218

4. Ryan W.: 216

5. Mike S.: 210

6. Dan Du.: 195

7. Scott Has.: 181

8. Jay H. #3: 176

9. Jim W.: 172

10. Becky H.: 170

10. Josiah T. #4: 170

12. Michelle L. #1: 169

13. Pete J. #1: 156

14. Brad R.: 153

15. Hutch H.: 151

16. Julie S.: 150

17. Josiah T. #3: 148

18. Harrell R. #2: 146

19. Jason S.: 136

20. Jay H. #1: 131

21. Ally H.: 124

22. Harrell R. #1: 118

23. Peter F.: 110

24. James P.: 104

24. Eric V.: 104

26. Adam E.: 102

27. Mike W.: 99

28. Ben S. #1: 94

29. Max W. #2: 92

29. Eric L.: 92

31. Brent E. #2: 90

32. Ben S. #2: 89

33. Grant F.: 85

34. Brent E. #4: 84

35. Max W. #1: 81

36. Pete J. #2: 78

37. Josiah T. #2: 74

38. Jim D.: 72

39. Matt N.: 70

40. Brent E. #1: 66

40. Josiah T. #1: 66

42. Klei R.: 61

43. Nick S.: 60

44. Brett W.: 55

45. Kevin W.: 54

46. Brent E. #3: 48

46. Dan Dz.: 48

48. Dustin B.: 47

49. Bosun S.: 36

50. Emily J.: 28

51. Tim N.: 24

52. Michelle L. #2: 22

53. Amos W.: 18

54. Scott Her. #2: 12

55. Mike N.: 9

56. Sally R.: 4

57. Scott Her. #1: 0

57. Damien R. #2: 0

59. Ashley D.: -7

59. Justin H.: -7

61. Ava S.: -10

62. Damien R. #1: -45

63. Craig G.: -51

64. Dan S.: -100

65. Nichole W.: -101

66. Jay H. #2: -170

Well, there are no games tomorrow, but the good news is that we are down to below the minimum number of games I’ll need to calculate the probabilities of getting in the top 3 places.  I’ll send out those as soon as I have them calculated.  I also will send out the single game eliminations for Monday.  I remember a few years ago they had a game a day between 1/1 and whenever they played in the Championship game.  I wished they did that this time.  When they stack 6 games in one day, it makes it really hard to keep up with what game knocked you out of the pool.  More often than not, it’s not one game that will knock you out of contention, it will be some combination of games (not all of them that you lose).  That’s usually the most interesting statistics, but with so many games going off in short order it’s hard to get visibility to all the permutations.

All right.  Good luck to everyone!!!!