After Hawaii Bowl

Hello again, everyone!  The last game (the Hawaii Bowl) ended pretty late on 12/22, and then I took the day off yesterday, so I’m back with the latest update.  We have a break for Christmas before games start up again on Wednesday.

For those that didn’t watch, there were some pretty good games, with the exception of the Army / Houston game.  That game was horrible.  Actually, that Armed Forces Bowl was the only one where the favorite actually won.  If you wanted to pick some upsets and risk even a moderate amount on them, Saturday was your day.

Due to the number of upsets (even if the line was 1 point, they were still ‘upsets’ of a sort), the average entry only won 1.48 games.  The average amount of points won was 22.95 while the average amount of points lost was 39.29.  A lot of that is due to Wake Forest beating Memphis in a very exciting Birmingham Bowl.  I think that may have been the best game I watched so far.  It makes me at least interested in watching some of the remaining games.

From a pure points perspective, here were the top gainers on Saturday:

1.       Michelle L. #1 (4 wins – 69 points)

2.       Dylan B. (2 wins – 65 points)

3.       Ally H. (3 wins – 64 points)

4.       Jim W. (2 wins – 60 points)

5.       Grant F. (3 wins – 56 points)

We finished the day with only 2 entries that went 4/4 (Michelle L. #1, Scott Has.).  Eight entries managed to go 0/4 on the day.  The biggest loser of the group being Damien R. #2 who managed to lose 88 points (Ouch).

You’ll notice a lot of overlap with the biggest movers up the rankings:

1.       Ally H. (51^st to 30^th)

2.       Jim W. (45^th to 26^th)

3.       Michelle L. #1 (26^th to 8^th)

4.       Eric V. (36^th to 25^th)

If you remember the last update, Nick S. had a pretty commending lead in the points.  On Saturday, he managed to get an additional 27 points, but lost 79.  That brought him pretty substantially back to the pack.  It also marks the problem with the 40-1 strategy.  The goal is to get as many points as possible on games you actually feel confident in.  The 40-1 strategy (or the 1-40 strategy) assumes that you have the most confidence in only early games or only late games.  Honestly, if you are going to do this, you may as well randomly assign points.  It would get you the same result.  The only way I see this working is if you think that you are just going to get substantially more games right than the field, so that the point distribution won’t make a difference.  That almost never happens.  I can’t really be more adamant about how bad a strategy I think this is, but people still try it every year.

Anyway, here’s the updated points only rankings:

1. Nick S.: 290 (-191)

2. Dylan B.: 278 (-18)

3. Andrzej R.: 248 (-55)

4. Marc R.: 240 (-102)

5. Hutch H.: 228 (-45)

6. Grant F.: 224 (-97)

7. Pete J. #1: 220 (-40)

8. Michelle L. #1: 216 (-67)

9. Pete J. #2: 204 (-56)

10. Josiah T. #4: 204 (-74)

11. Tim N.: 202 (-188)

12. Jay H. #1: 198 (-58)

13. Jim D.: 196 (-63)

14. Ben S. #2: 196 (-65)

15. James P.: 196 (-87)

16. Harrell R. #2: 192 (-84)

17. Matt N.: 192 (-97)

18. Harrell R. #1: 191 (-56)

19. Scott Has.: 190 (-33)

20. Sally R.: 189 (-166)

21. Adam E.: 183 (-54)

22. Josiah T. #2: 182 (-82)

23. Ben S. #1: 176 (-77)

24. Peter F.: 168 (-121)

25. Eric V.: 166 (-47)

26. Jim W.: 166 (-78)

27. Scott Her. #2: 161 (-87)

28. Brent E. #4: 158 (-92)

29. Emily J.: 157 (-60)

30. Ally H.: 155 (-55)

31. Kevin W.: 154 (-71)

32. Josiah T. #1: 154 (-110)

33. Michelle L. #2: 153 (-110)

34. Jason S.: 153 (-137)

35. Nichole W.: 152 (-192)

36. Dan Du.: 150 (-38)

37. Josiah T. #3: 149 (-151)

38. Mike S.: 148 (-113)

39. Damien R. #1: 148 (-183)

40. Brent E. #2: 146 (-104)

40. Brent E. #3: 146 (-104)

42. Klei R.: 139 (-172)

43. Brent E. #1: 134 (-104)

44. Brad R.: 132 (-173)

45. Justin H.: 131 (-51)

46. Becky H.: 129 (-87)

47. Dan Dz.: 122 (-85)

48. Jay H. #3: 116 (-77)

49. Brett W.: 115 (-75)

50. Ryan W.: 112 (-129)

51. Craig G.: 108 (-176)

52. Dustin B.: 106 (-70)

53. Amos W.: 104 (-79)

54. Eric L.: 101 (-19)

55. Scott Her. #1: 90 (-150)

56. Bosun S.: 84 (-79)

57. Julie S.: 81 (-82)

58. Damien R. #2: 80 (-136)

59. Max W. #1: 78 (-76)

60. Jay H. #2: 75 (-114)

61. Max W. #2: 70 (-51)

62. Mike N.: 66 (-108)

63. Ava S.: 63 (-100)

64. Ashley D.: 51 (-145)

65. Mike W.: 46 (-76)

66. Dan S.: 43 (-120)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Dylan B.: 260

2. Andrzej R.: 193

3. Hutch H.: 183

4. Pete J. #1: 180

5. Scott Has.: 157

6. Michelle L. #1: 149

7. Pete J. #2: 148

8. Jay H. #1: 140

9. Marc R.: 138

10. Harrell R. #1: 135

11. Jim D.: 133

12. Ben S. #2: 131

13. Josiah T. #4: 130

14. Adam E.: 129

15. Grant F.: 127

16. Eric V.: 119

17. Dan Du.: 112

18. James P.: 109

19. Harrell R. #2: 108

20. Josiah T. #2: 100

20. Ally H.: 100

22. Nick S.: 99

22. Ben S. #1: 99

24. Emily J.: 97

25. Matt N.: 95

26. Jim W.: 88

27. Kevin W.: 83

28. Eric L.: 82

29. Justin H.: 80

30. Scott Her. #2: 74

31. Brent E. #4: 66

32. Peter F.: 47

33. Josiah T. #1: 44

34. Michelle L. #2: 43

35. Brent E. #2: 42

35. Brent E. #3: 42

35. Becky H.: 42

38. Brett W.: 40

39. Jay H. #3: 39

40. Dan Dz.: 37

41. Dustin B.: 36

42. Mike S.: 35

43. Brent E. #1: 30

44. Amos W.: 25

45. Sally R.: 23

46. Max W. #2: 19

47. Jason S.: 16

48. Tim N.: 14

49. Bosun S.: 5

50. Max W. #1: 2

51. Julie S.: -1

52. Josiah T. #3: -2

53. Ryan W.: -17

54. Mike W.: -30

55. Klei R.: -33

56. Damien R. #1: -35

57. Ava S.: -37

58. Jay H. #2: -39

59. Nichole W.: -40

60. Brad R.: -41

61. Mike N.: -42

62. Damien R. #2: -56

63. Scott Her. #1: -60

64. Craig G.: -68

65. Dan S.: -77

66. Ashley D.: -94

Dylan B. is looking to be in great shape currently.  He has a 67 point lead in net points, which is probably more than any one game will ever make up.  Then again, 2/3 of the points are still out there.

Speaking of which there 3 more games on Wednesday.  Much like Saturday, all 3 of the games are in the bottom 5 of remaining games in terms of points wagered.  Good time to make up ground if you were particularly bold.  Here are the particulars:

First Responder Bowl:

Picks:

Boise State: 44 (19.43 pts average)

Boston College: 22 (12.82 pts average)

Median Pick: Boise State for 11 points.

Mean Pick: Boise State for 8.7 points.

Total points wagered: 1,137 (30^th overall).

Vegas Line: Boise State (-2.5)

OK, so this game used to be called the “Heart of Dallas” Bowl.  I never really understood that as a name, unless the Dallas Chamber of Commerce was sponsoring or something.  I like the First Responder Bowl better.  It would be even better if they gave free tickets to First Responders, but I have no way of knowing if that actually is happening.  I especially like Jay H. #2, whose 37 point pick on Boston College is quite the outlier.  Bet big, win big they always say (and by “they” I mean people that work at a casino).

Quick Lane Bowl:

Picks:

Georgia Tech: 45 (20.42 pts average)

Minnesota: 21 (13.38 pts average)

Median Pick: Georgia Tech for 15 points.

Mean Pick: Georgia Tech for 9.7 points.

Total points wagered: 1,200 (25^th overall).

Vegas Line: Georgia Tech (-6)

Wow.  I took Georgia Tech for 40 points.  Given that I went there for 2 years, the head coach is retiring after this season, and they are already favored by 6 points, it seemed like a good time to take a chance.  Given that I’m pretty close to the very bottom of the net points rankings, I’m not sure anyone should be following my lead.  I’ll be pretty happy if they win anyway.  Maybe that can be some consolation for me since this pool may be a lost cause for me to actually win.  Regardless, I think this is the 2^nd worst Bowl game on the schedule.  The Potato Bowl is the worst.  At least this one is indoors and there are at least some things to do in Detroit if you are going there for this Bowl game.

Cheez-It Bowl

Picks:

TCU: 37 (14.59 pts average)

California: 29 (13.24 pts average)

Median Pick: TCU for 3.5 points.

Mean Pick: TCU for 2.4 points.

Total points wagered: 924 (36^th overall).

Vegas Line: California (-1)

OK, so this was another name change, and kind of like the “Heart of Dallas” Bowl becoming the “First Responders” Bowl, this one used to be the “Cactus Bowl”.  I like the change here too.  It’s much better than the Poulan Weed Eater Independence Bowl, where I would just chop off the sponsor in the blog.  This is primo product placement.  You can’t avoid the Cheez-It name.  It’s pretty stupid, I know, but I kind of like the brazenness of it.  It’s also better than “Rose Bowl Game sponsored by the Intuit OS2” or some other nonsense that no one ever actually says.  I’m actually kind of curious what the trophy looks like.  As for the game, this is a strange one.  When the Vegas lines came out, this was a pick ‘em game.  Now Cal is favored by 1, but we have more people taking TCU.  I kind of like to see when that happens.  I also like games like this because even though it is essentially a toss up, 41 entries wound up taking this game for >=10 points.  It kind of forces you to take a side for a non-negligible amount.  Fun times!!!

Good luck to everyone!!!