Initial Probabilities

Good morning.  I’ve been able to calculate the initial probabilities for 1^st, 2^nd & 3^rd.  This, however seems like a good time to do some housekeeping….

Here is a list of the people that I don’t have registered to have paid yet.  This is the worst part of running these things, and it’s entirely possible that you paid on-line and I didn’t record the payment.  If that is the case, let me know.  If you haven’t paid yet, please remedy that ASAP.

Ava S.

Bosun S.

Dan Du.

Dan S.

Emily J.

Grant F.

Harrell R. #1

Harrell R. #2

Hutch H.

James P.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #2

Jay H. #3

Julie S.

Peter F.

OK, now that that is taken care of, there’s some good news and bad news.  First, more than half the entries are still alive for something.  Unfortunately, there are 31 entries that are already mathematically eliminated from any of the 3 places.  Here’s the list:

Amos W.

Ben S. #2

Brent E. #1

Brent E. #2

Brent E. #3

Brent E. #4

Brett W.

Craig G.

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Dan S.

Dustin B.

Emily J.

Grant F.

Harrell R. #1

Jay H. #2

Jim D.

Josiah T. #1

Josiah T. #2

Justin H.

Kevin W.

Matt N.

Michelle L. #2

Mike N.

Nichole W.

Nick S.

Peter F.

Sally R.

Scott Her. #1

Scott Her. #2

Tim N.

If you aren’t on the list above, Congratulations!!  There is still a way for you to win some money.

A note on methodology.  Frist, I assume that all games are essentially coin tosses.  This is obviously not true.  Georgia is a huge favorite to beat Texas, but for the purposes of probabilities I treat that game as if Texas has just as good a chance to beat Georgia.  If they would space the games out a little more, I could weight the games based on point spreads and that would be even more accurate, but for now, this is what we’ve got.

OK, as I’ve been saying for a while now, Dylan B. has a pretty commanding lead in the net points.  That reflects very well in the probabilities for winning the pool.  Because of his huge lead, there really aren’t all that many people that can catch him.  It’s entirely possible that he could wrap this pool up after 3 or 4 more games.  That’s how big a favorite he is.  The real interesting race is for 2^nd and 3^rd.  Here are the people that can still win:

1. Dylan B. (73.9257%)

2. Dan Du. (6.018%)

3. Mike S. (5.2856%)

4. Becky H. (4.5654%)

5. Josiah T. #3 (4.541%)

6. Marc R. (1.5502%)

7. Andrzej R. (1.3549%)

8. Michelle L. #1 (0.83%)

8. Ryan W. (0.83%)

10. Julie S. (0.6713%)

11. Max W. #1 (0.2197%)

12. Pete J. #2 (0.1342%)

13. Pete J. #1 (0.0488%)

14. Jay H. #3 (0.0244%)

The field expands a little for 2^nd place:

1. Dylan B. (18.9086%)

2. Ryan W. (13.2568%)

3. Marc R. (9.6964%)

4. Andrzej R. (9.4116%)

5. Mike S. (9.1308%)

6. Dan Du. (7.0271%)

7. Becky H. (5.6396%)

8. Josiah T. #4 (4.2114%)

9. Josiah T. #3 (3.6946%)

10. Julie S. (2.7709%)

11. Scott Has. (2.7018%)

12. Brad R. (2.6896%)

13. Jay H. #3 (2.6733%)

14. Michelle L. #1 (2.3559%)

15. Pete J. #1 (1.2695%)

16. Jim W. (0.9033%)

17. Max W. #1 (0.7812%)

18. Max W. #2 (0.6795%)

19. Jason S. (0.5981%)

20. Ally H. (0.5859%)

21. Pete J. #2 (0.4272%)

22. Mike W. (0.2441%)

23. Ava S. (0.1464%)

24. Ashley D. (0.0976%)

25. Eric L. (0.0488%)

26. Adam E. (0.0244%)

26. Harrell R. #2 (0.0244%)

…and gets slightly larger when we go out to 3^rd place:

1. Andrzej R. (13.0981%)

2. Marc R. (11.1124%)

3. Mike S. (8.8867%)

4. Ryan W. (8.8704%)

5. Dan Du. (7.8084%)

6. Josiah T. #4 (5.5297%)

7. Becky H. (5.4321%)

8. Michelle L. #1 (4.9723%)

9. Dylan B. (4.5654%)

10. Josiah T. #3 (3.9754%)

11. Jay H. #3 (3.7882%)

12. Scott Has. (3.5685%)

13. Brad R. (3.1982%)

14. Julie S. (2.8198%)

15. Pete J. #1 (2.0955%)

16. Jim W. (2.0711%)

17. Jason S. (1.4038%)

18. Max W. #2 (1.2573%)

19. Max W. #1 (1.123%)

20. Ally H. (1.0742%)

21. Pete J. #2 (0.8504%)

22. Harrell R. #2 (0.7039%)

23. Mike W. (0.4272%)

24. Ava S. (0.2685%)

25. Ashley D. (0.2441%)

26. Adam E. (0.179%)

27. Hutch H. (0.1546%)

28. Bosun S. (0.1342%)

29. Eric L. (0.122%)

30. Jay H. #1 (0.0976%)

31. Ben S. #1 (0.0569%)

32. Eric V. (0.0366%)

33. Dan Dz. (0.0244%)

33. James P. (0.0244%)

33. Klei R. (0.0244%)

You’ll notice that Dylan B. is the favorite to win both 1^st and 2^nd.  Obviously that can’t happen.  If you want to see your probability of winning any money at all, you’d have to add the odds for your entry across the 3 payouts.  So, for Dylan B., the probability that he’ll win any money is = 73.9257+18.9086+4.5654 = 97.4% chance of winning something.

Actually, here are the probabilities of winning ANYTHING:

Adam E. (0.2034%)

Ally H. (1.6601%)

Andrzej R. (23.8647%)

Ashley D. (0.3417%)

Ava S. (0.415%)

Becky H. (15.6372%)

Ben S. #1 (0.0569%)

Bosun S. (0.1342%)

Brad R. (5.8878%)

Dan Du. (20.8536%)

Dan Dz. (0.0244%)

Dylan B. (97.3999%)

Eric L. (0.1708%)

Eric V. (0.0366%)

Harrell R. #2 (0.7283%)

Hutch H. (0.1546%)

James P. (0.0244%)

Jason S. (2.0019%)

Jay H. #1 (0.0976%)

Jay H. #3 (6.486%)

Jim W. (2.9744%)

Josiah T. #3 (12.2111%)

Josiah T. #4 (9.7412%)

Julie S. (6.2622%)

Klei R. (0.0244%)

Marc R. (22.3592%)

Max W. #1 (2.124%)

Max W. #2 (1.9368%)

Michelle L. #1 (8.1583%)

Mike S. (23.3032%)

Mike W. (0.6713%)

Pete J. #1 (3.4138%)

Pete J. #2 (1.4119%)

Ryan W. (22.9573%)

Scott Has. (6.2703%)

I’ll be back later tonight with single game eliminations for tomorrow.  Good luck to everyone!!!!