2016 Bowl Pool - 5 games to go edition.....

It appears as though we have a day off tomorrow, which is nice.  We can all catch our breath after 9 games over 2 days.  Today, we took another step towards figuring out who's going to win this thing.  We started the day with 15 sheets alive to win something and after 4 games, we pared it down to only 5 entries that can win anything.  All but one of those entries is alive for both 1st and 2nd.

Here were the eliminations:

After Louisville loss:

Adam E. (2nd)

Brent S. (1st, 2nd)

Dave M. (1st)

Jay H. #2 (1st, 2nd)

Mike S. (2nd)

Ray R. (2nd)

Tim N. (1st)

After Kentucky loss:

Dave M. (2nd)

Klei R. (1st)

Scott Her. #2 (2nd)

Tim N. (2nd)

After Washington loss:

Klei R. (2nd)

After Ohio State loss:

Michelle L. #2 (1st, 2nd)

For those that care about the points, here are the updated standings:

1. Mark ESPN: 587 (-214)

2. Brent E. #2: 574 (-228)

3. Brent E. #1: 573 (-229)

4. Pete J. #1: 565 (-231)

5. Marc S.: 553 (-246)

6. Nick B.: 544 (-249)

7. Dave M.: 539 (-257)

8. Stephanie P.: 539 (-261)

9. Tim N.: 531 (-294)

10. Mike W.: 525 (-282)

11. Michelle L. #2: 524 (-256)

12. Mike S.: 524 (-268)

13. Roth W.: 520 (-279)

14. Adam E.: 512 (-262)

15. Josiah T. #2: 498 (-280)

16. Michelle L. #1: 498 (-285)

17. Freitag B.: 496 (-301)

18. Scott Her. #2: 495 (-269)

19. Hutch H.: 495 (-290)

20. Klei R.: 494 (-285)

21. Hal R. #1: 493 (-293)

22. Mason A.: 486 (-290)

23. Hal R. #2: 481 (-305)

24. Matt N.: 464 (-312)

25. Marc R.: 460 (-311)

26. Pete J. #2: 459 (-337)

27. Scott H.: 456 (-363)

28. Damien R.: 455 (-329)

29. Kevin F. #1: 453 (-325)

30. Brent S.: 451 (-304)

31. Ben S.: 451 (-315)

32. Deborah G.: 447 (-328)

33. Jim P.: 447 (-339)

34. Jay H. #3: 445 (-318)

35. Ray R.: 440 (-326)

36. Becky H.: 437 (-337)

37. Ryan W.: 427 (-347)

38. Kevin F. #2: 424 (-359)

39. Dylan B.: 423 (-354)

40. Josiah T. #1: 419 (-362)

41. Dorthea R.: 398 (-378)

42. Scott Her. #1: 397 (-337)

43. Dan S.: 396 (-371)

43. Jay H. #1: 396 (-371)

45. Julie S.: 382 (-385)

46. Brad R.: 380 (-380)

47. Ally H.: 367 (-376)

48. Chad L.: 365 (-378)

49. Dustin B.: 363 (-352)

50. Dan Du.: 353 (-427)

51. Jay H. #2: 346 (-357)

52. Jim W.: 340 (-419)

53. Dan Dz.: 339 (-369)

54. Brett W.: 302 (-413)

55. Ash D.: 293 (-470)

56. Nichole W.: 252 (-467)

There are only 4 people still alive for 1st place:

1.: Mark ESPN (53.125%)

2.: Brent E. #1 (28.125%)

3.: Brent E. #2 (12.5%)

4.: Pete J. #1 (6.25%)

...and 5 people still alive for 2nd place:

1.: Pete J. #1 (37.5%)

2.: Mark ESPN (31.25%)

3.: Brent E. #1 (18.75%)

4.: Brent E. #2 (6.25%)

4.: Nick B. (6.25%)

There are 4 games on Monday, and suffice it to say that there's a pretty good chance that this pool will be wrapped up after the second one depending on the outcomes of the earlier games.

Here are the single game eliminations:

Cotton Bowl:

If Western Michigan Wins:

Nick B is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

If Wisconsin wins:

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Outback Bowl:

If Florida Wins:

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Iowa Wins:

Nick B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Rose Bowl:

If Penn State wins:

Nick B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

If USC wins:

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Sugar Bowl:

If Auburn wins:

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Oklahoma wins:

Nick B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

So, if Wisconsin & Florida win on Monday, Mark ESPN wins the pool.  For those that are interested, here is the article I used to make these picks:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/bigpicture2016/confidence-bowls-picks-split-college-football-playoff-semifinal-matchups

I just took his picks and copied them verbatim into my sheet.  I typically do this to show how little "experts" know about college football.  Maybe I picked the right "expert" this year, because he's the odds-on favorite to win this thing.  That was not my intention in the slightest.  Honestly, I'm really hoping that Western Michigan wins on Monday.  I even got a t-shirt commemorating their undefeated season for Christmas.  My wife still doesn't understand "Row the Boat", but I like it as a slogan, even though I don't totally understand it either.

Anyway, enjoy your New Years Eve.  Be safe and take your time recovering tomorrow.  Let's hope that 2017 is better than 2016.  I've said that the only good things this year were the Cubs winning the World Series and being able to go to arguably the best NCAA Final Game ever.  Other than that, this year sucked pretty hard.  Good riddance, 2016.....

Bowl Pool extra - odds based on Championship Game winner

Just for laughs, I looked at what the possible outcomes are depending on who wins the National Championship game - not taking into consideration the results of any other games.

If Alabama wins, here are the odds to win the pool:

Mark ESPN (57.22%)

Brent E. #1 (18.75%)

Brent E. #2 (7.42%)

Michelle L. #2 (3.71%)

Dave M. (3.51%)

Pete J. #1 (3.12%)

Klei R. (2.73%)

Tim N. (1.95%)

Jay H. #2 (0.78%)

Brent S. (0.78%)

If Clemson wins:

Mark ESPN (50.78%)

Brent E. #2 (28.12%)

Brent E. #1 (12.89%)

Michelle L. #2 (2.53%)

Pete J. #1 (1.95%)

Dave M. (1.36%)

Brent S. (0.78%)

Jay H. #2 (0.78%)

Klei R. (0.39%)

Tim N. (0.39%)

If Ohio State wins:

Brent E. #2 (72.65%)

Mark ESPN (26.56%)

Michelle L. #2 (0.78%)

If Washington wins:

Mark ESPN (50.78%)

Brent E. #2 (28.12%)

Brent E. #1 (12.89%)

Michelle L. #2 (2.53%)

Pete J. #1 (1.95%)

Dave M. (1.36%)

Jay H. #2 (0.78%)

Brent S. (0.78%)

Tim N. (0.39%)

Klei R. (0.39%)

This data makes me think that the pool will largely be over before the final game is played.  All of these odds immediately change as soon as one more result comes in, so take them with a grain of salt.  As I was saying in my last post, it looks like it's a 2-person race at this point.

Bowl Pool 2016 - First day of eliminations.

Interesting day today.  What with 5 games on the schedule, that means that we dropped from 32,768 ways the pool could play out down to 1,024.  If you were lucky enough to survive that, congratulations!!  You are one of the last 15 sheets still alive in this pool.

First, here are the eliminations....

After Georgia beat TCU in the Liberty Bowl:

Ally H. (2nd)

Marc R. (1st)

Marc S. (1st)

Michelle L. #1 (2nd)

Mike W. (1st)

Nick B. (1st)

After Stanford beat North Carolina in the Sun Bowl:

Ben S. (1st, 2nd)

Brett W. (2nd)

Dan Dz. (2nd)

Freitag B. (2nd)

Hal R. #1 (1st, 2nd)

Hal R. #2 (2nd)

Marc R. (2nd)

Mike W. (2nd)

Nichole W. (2nd)

Scott Her. #1 (1st, 2nd)

After Tennessee beat Nebraska in the Music City Bowl:

Becky H. (2nd)

Hutch H. (1st, 2nd)

Jim W. (2nd)

Josiah T. #2 (1st)

After Air Force beat South Alabama in the Arizona Bowl:

Adam E. (1st)

Damien R. (1st, 2nd)

Deborah G. (1st, 2nd)

Dorthea R. (1st, 2nd)

Marc S. (2nd)

Mike S. (1st)

After Florida State beat Michigan in the Orange Bowl:

Dustin B. (2nd)

Josiah T. #2 (2nd)

Scott Her. #2 (1st)

For those that are interested in the points totals currently, here they are.....

1. Mark ESPN: 525 (-214)

2. Brent E. #2: 514 (-225)

3. Tim N.: 506 (-267)

4. Brent E. #1: 498 (-226)

5. Dave M.: 494 (-248)

6. Pete J. #1: 487 (-231)

7. Marc S.: 479 (-246)

8. Nick B.: 478 (-238)

9. Mike W.: 473 (-259)

10. Mike S.: 468 (-266)

11. Roth W.: 462 (-271)

12. Josiah T. #2: 455 (-266)

13. Michelle L. #2: 451 (-239)

14. Scott Her. #2: 447 (-240)

15. Adam E.: 441 (-253)

16. Freitag B.: 439 (-292)

17. Hutch H.: 437 (-271)

18. Deborah G.: 435 (-326)

19. Stephanie P.: 434 (-261)

20. Klei R.: 434 (-276)

21. Hal R. #1: 431 (-261)

22. Michelle L. #1: 421 (-265)

23. Mason A.: 414 (-273)

24. Hal R. #2: 411 (-281)

25. Kevin F. #1: 407 (-314)

26. Scott H.: 402 (-355)

27. Pete J. #2: 399 (-319)

28. Damien R.: 396 (-285)

29. Marc R.: 393 (-295)

30. Jim P.: 387 (-291)

31. Brent S.: 386 (-239)

32. Matt N.: 383 (-308)

33. Ray R.: 371 (-286)

34. Kevin F. #2: 367 (-359)

35. Jay H. #3: 366 (-279)

36. Ben S.: 365 (-315)

37. Josiah T. #1: 363 (-361)

38. Dylan B.: 361 (-346)

39. Ryan W.: 356 (-314)

40. Scott Her. #1: 349 (-279)

41. Dorthea R.: 346 (-311)

42. Dan Du.: 345 (-399)

43. Dan S.: 323 (-371)

44. Chad L.: 320 (-329)

45. Julie S.: 315 (-379)

46. Brad R.: 312 (-374)

47. Jay H. #2: 310 (-251)

48. Jim W.: 309 (-371)

49. Dan Dz.: 300 (-364)

50. Becky H.: 295 (-337)

51. Dustin B.: 293 (-289)

52. Jay H. #1: 290 (-331)

53. Ally H.: 285 (-338)

54. Ash D.: 265 (-435)

55. Brett W.: 232 (-350)

56. Nichole W.: 213 (-361)

As for the probabilities to win, it was quite a Jeckyll & Hyde day for me.  For most people, their probabilities didn't deviate by more than 2.5%.  There were 2 large exceptions to that.  The first was Mark ESPN who started the day with a 16.9627% chance to win, and currently have a 46.3379% chance of winning - an increase of 29.3752%.  That entry got 4/5 correct today for a total of 80 points.  It missed Michigan, but only had it for 17 points, which actually helped it's probability of winning.

On the other side, Klei R. started the day with a 20.8333% probability of winning, and finished the day with 0.8789%, for a drop of 19.9544% in one day.  Ouch...  I managed to go 2/5, only winning 32 points, while dropping 105 points.  Frankly, I'm surprised I still have a path to win this thing.  I pretty much need to win out.

Speaking of winning this thing, it's starting to look more and more like a 2 person race.  The top 2 sheets have greater than a 80% chance of winning.  The other 8 people are left to pick up the scraps of the remaining 20%.  That puts most people in the unenviable  of having several "must-win" games going forward.

Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Mark ESPN (46.3378%)

2.: Brent E. #2 (34.082%)

3.: Brent E. #1 (11.1328%)

4.: Michelle L. #2 (2.3925%)

5.: Pete J. #1 (1.7578%)

6.: Dave M. (1.5625%)

7.: Klei R. (0.8789%)

8.: Tim N. (0.6835%)

9.: Jay H. #2 (0.5859%)

9.: Brent S. (0.5859%)

...and the probabilities for 2nd:

1.: Mark ESPN (22.4609%)

2.: Brent E. #1 (18.457%)

3.: Pete J. #1 (13.7532%)

4.: Brent E. #2 (12.7278%)

5.: Dave M. (8.968%)

6.: Tim N. (5.8593%)

7.: Nick B. (5.2246%)

8.: Scott Her. #2 (3.6621%)

9.: Michelle L. #2 (3.3203%)

10.: Klei R. (2.3925%)

11.: Brent S. (1.6601%)

12.: Adam E. (1.1718%)

13.: Jay H. #2 (0.1953%)

14.: Ray R. (0.0976%)

15.: Mike S. (0.0488%)

...at least 2nd place looks a little more wide open than 1st.  Still plenty of people with a decent chance of getting 2nd.  That's gotta count for something.

That is until tomorrow.  There are 4 more games on the schedule, so the eliminations will continue throughout the day....  Here are the single game eliminations:

Citrus Bowl:

If Louisville wins:

No one is eliminated from anything.

If LSU wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Brent S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Fiesta Bowl:

If Clemson wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention. Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Ohio State wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Klei R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Peach Bowl:

If Alabama wins:

Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

If Washington wins:

Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

TaxSlayer Bowl:

If Kentucky wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

If Georgia Tech wins:

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

That's it for the eliminations tomorrow.  There's not a lot, but that's more a product of there not being that many people left to eliminate.  There's only 15 entries still alive, and there are still 8 games left.  If you are still alive at this point, good luck staying alive tomorrow!!!