Bowl Pool 2016 - First day of eliminations.

Interesting day today.  What with 5 games on the schedule, that means that we dropped from 32,768 ways the pool could play out down to 1,024.  If you were lucky enough to survive that, congratulations!!  You are one of the last 15 sheets still alive in this pool.

First, here are the eliminations....

After Georgia beat TCU in the Liberty Bowl:

Ally H. (2nd)

Marc R. (1st)

Marc S. (1st)

Michelle L. #1 (2nd)

Mike W. (1st)

Nick B. (1st)

After Stanford beat North Carolina in the Sun Bowl:

Ben S. (1st, 2nd)

Brett W. (2nd)

Dan Dz. (2nd)

Freitag B. (2nd)

Hal R. #1 (1st, 2nd)

Hal R. #2 (2nd)

Marc R. (2nd)

Mike W. (2nd)

Nichole W. (2nd)

Scott Her. #1 (1st, 2nd)

After Tennessee beat Nebraska in the Music City Bowl:

Becky H. (2nd)

Hutch H. (1st, 2nd)

Jim W. (2nd)

Josiah T. #2 (1st)

After Air Force beat South Alabama in the Arizona Bowl:

Adam E. (1st)

Damien R. (1st, 2nd)

Deborah G. (1st, 2nd)

Dorthea R. (1st, 2nd)

Marc S. (2nd)

Mike S. (1st)

After Florida State beat Michigan in the Orange Bowl:

Dustin B. (2nd)

Josiah T. #2 (2nd)

Scott Her. #2 (1st)

For those that are interested in the points totals currently, here they are.....

1. Mark ESPN: 525 (-214)

2. Brent E. #2: 514 (-225)

3. Tim N.: 506 (-267)

4. Brent E. #1: 498 (-226)

5. Dave M.: 494 (-248)

6. Pete J. #1: 487 (-231)

7. Marc S.: 479 (-246)

8. Nick B.: 478 (-238)

9. Mike W.: 473 (-259)

10. Mike S.: 468 (-266)

11. Roth W.: 462 (-271)

12. Josiah T. #2: 455 (-266)

13. Michelle L. #2: 451 (-239)

14. Scott Her. #2: 447 (-240)

15. Adam E.: 441 (-253)

16. Freitag B.: 439 (-292)

17. Hutch H.: 437 (-271)

18. Deborah G.: 435 (-326)

19. Stephanie P.: 434 (-261)

20. Klei R.: 434 (-276)

21. Hal R. #1: 431 (-261)

22. Michelle L. #1: 421 (-265)

23. Mason A.: 414 (-273)

24. Hal R. #2: 411 (-281)

25. Kevin F. #1: 407 (-314)

26. Scott H.: 402 (-355)

27. Pete J. #2: 399 (-319)

28. Damien R.: 396 (-285)

29. Marc R.: 393 (-295)

30. Jim P.: 387 (-291)

31. Brent S.: 386 (-239)

32. Matt N.: 383 (-308)

33. Ray R.: 371 (-286)

34. Kevin F. #2: 367 (-359)

35. Jay H. #3: 366 (-279)

36. Ben S.: 365 (-315)

37. Josiah T. #1: 363 (-361)

38. Dylan B.: 361 (-346)

39. Ryan W.: 356 (-314)

40. Scott Her. #1: 349 (-279)

41. Dorthea R.: 346 (-311)

42. Dan Du.: 345 (-399)

43. Dan S.: 323 (-371)

44. Chad L.: 320 (-329)

45. Julie S.: 315 (-379)

46. Brad R.: 312 (-374)

47. Jay H. #2: 310 (-251)

48. Jim W.: 309 (-371)

49. Dan Dz.: 300 (-364)

50. Becky H.: 295 (-337)

51. Dustin B.: 293 (-289)

52. Jay H. #1: 290 (-331)

53. Ally H.: 285 (-338)

54. Ash D.: 265 (-435)

55. Brett W.: 232 (-350)

56. Nichole W.: 213 (-361)

As for the probabilities to win, it was quite a Jeckyll & Hyde day for me.  For most people, their probabilities didn't deviate by more than 2.5%.  There were 2 large exceptions to that.  The first was Mark ESPN who started the day with a 16.9627% chance to win, and currently have a 46.3379% chance of winning - an increase of 29.3752%.  That entry got 4/5 correct today for a total of 80 points.  It missed Michigan, but only had it for 17 points, which actually helped it's probability of winning.

On the other side, Klei R. started the day with a 20.8333% probability of winning, and finished the day with 0.8789%, for a drop of 19.9544% in one day.  Ouch...  I managed to go 2/5, only winning 32 points, while dropping 105 points.  Frankly, I'm surprised I still have a path to win this thing.  I pretty much need to win out.

Speaking of winning this thing, it's starting to look more and more like a 2 person race.  The top 2 sheets have greater than a 80% chance of winning.  The other 8 people are left to pick up the scraps of the remaining 20%.  That puts most people in the unenviable  of having several "must-win" games going forward.

Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Mark ESPN (46.3378%)

2.: Brent E. #2 (34.082%)

3.: Brent E. #1 (11.1328%)

4.: Michelle L. #2 (2.3925%)

5.: Pete J. #1 (1.7578%)

6.: Dave M. (1.5625%)

7.: Klei R. (0.8789%)

8.: Tim N. (0.6835%)

9.: Jay H. #2 (0.5859%)

9.: Brent S. (0.5859%)

...and the probabilities for 2nd:

1.: Mark ESPN (22.4609%)

2.: Brent E. #1 (18.457%)

3.: Pete J. #1 (13.7532%)

4.: Brent E. #2 (12.7278%)

5.: Dave M. (8.968%)

6.: Tim N. (5.8593%)

7.: Nick B. (5.2246%)

8.: Scott Her. #2 (3.6621%)

9.: Michelle L. #2 (3.3203%)

10.: Klei R. (2.3925%)

11.: Brent S. (1.6601%)

12.: Adam E. (1.1718%)

13.: Jay H. #2 (0.1953%)

14.: Ray R. (0.0976%)

15.: Mike S. (0.0488%)

...at least 2nd place looks a little more wide open than 1st.  Still plenty of people with a decent chance of getting 2nd.  That's gotta count for something.

That is until tomorrow.  There are 4 more games on the schedule, so the eliminations will continue throughout the day....  Here are the single game eliminations:

Citrus Bowl:

If Louisville wins:

No one is eliminated from anything.

If LSU wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Brent S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Fiesta Bowl:

If Clemson wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention. Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Ohio State wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Klei R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Peach Bowl:

If Alabama wins:

Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

If Washington wins:

Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

TaxSlayer Bowl:

If Kentucky wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

If Georgia Tech wins:

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

That's it for the eliminations tomorrow.  There's not a lot, but that's more a product of there not being that many people left to eliminate.  There's only 15 entries still alive, and there are still 8 games left.  If you are still alive at this point, good luck staying alive tomorrow!!!