Friday, December 30, 2016

Bowl Pool extra - odds based on Championship Game winner



Just for laughs, I looked at what the possible outcomes are depending on who wins the National Championship game - not taking into consideration the results of any other games.

If Alabama wins, here are the odds to win the pool:
Mark ESPN (57.22%)
Brent E. #1 (18.75%)
Brent E. #2 (7.42%)
Michelle L. #2 (3.71%)
Dave M. (3.51%)
Pete J. #1 (3.12%)
Klei R. (2.73%)
Tim N. (1.95%)
Jay H. #2 (0.78%)
Brent S. (0.78%)

If Clemson wins:
Mark ESPN (50.78%)
Brent E. #2 (28.12%)
Brent E. #1 (12.89%)
Michelle L. #2 (2.53%)
Pete J. #1 (1.95%)
Dave M. (1.36%)
Brent S. (0.78%)
Jay H. #2 (0.78%)
Klei R. (0.39%)
Tim N. (0.39%)

If Ohio State wins:
Brent E. #2 (72.65%)
Mark ESPN (26.56%)
Michelle L. #2 (0.78%)

If Washington wins:

Mark ESPN (50.78%)
Brent E. #2 (28.12%)
Brent E. #1 (12.89%)
Michelle L. #2 (2.53%)
Pete J. #1 (1.95%)
Dave M. (1.36%)
Jay H. #2 (0.78%)
Brent S. (0.78%)
Tim N. (0.39%)
Klei R. (0.39%)


This data makes me think that the pool will largely be over before the final game is played.  All of these odds immediately change as soon as one more result comes in, so take them with a grain of salt.  As I was saying in my last post, it looks like it's a 2-person race at this point.

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