Just for laughs, I looked at what the possible outcomes are
depending on who wins the National Championship game - not taking into
consideration the results of any other games.
If Alabama wins, here are the odds to win the pool:
Mark ESPN (57.22%)
|
Brent E. #1 (18.75%)
|
Brent E. #2 (7.42%)
|
Michelle L. #2 (3.71%)
|
Dave M. (3.51%)
|
Pete J. #1 (3.12%)
|
Klei R. (2.73%)
|
Tim N. (1.95%)
|
Jay H. #2 (0.78%)
|
Brent S. (0.78%)
|
If Clemson wins:
Mark ESPN (50.78%)
|
Brent E. #2 (28.12%)
|
Brent E. #1 (12.89%)
|
Michelle L. #2 (2.53%)
|
Pete J. #1 (1.95%)
|
Dave M. (1.36%)
|
Brent S. (0.78%)
|
Jay H. #2 (0.78%)
|
Klei R. (0.39%)
|
Tim N. (0.39%)
|
If Ohio State wins:
Brent E. #2 (72.65%)
|
Mark ESPN (26.56%)
|
Michelle L. #2 (0.78%)
|
If Washington wins:
Mark ESPN (50.78%)
|
Brent E. #2 (28.12%)
|
Brent E. #1 (12.89%)
|
Michelle L. #2 (2.53%)
|
Pete J. #1 (1.95%)
|
Dave M. (1.36%)
|
Jay H. #2 (0.78%)
|
Brent S. (0.78%)
|
Tim N. (0.39%)
|
Klei R. (0.39%)
|
This data makes me think that the pool will largely be over
before the final game is played. All of
these odds immediately change as soon as one more result comes in, so take them
with a grain of salt. As I was saying in
my last post, it looks like it's a 2-person race at this point.
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