NCAA Bowl pool - kickoff of first day edition

Good morning/afternoon everyone.  I've finally got everyone's picks in after a few last minute stragglers.  The final total looks to be 56 entries.  That means we increased our total from last year by 12.  Thanks to everyone for making that happen.  I know this pool isn't as easy to enter as the March Madness pool, so I appreciate everyone that took the time to fill out a sheet.

That also means that the total prize pool will be 56*5 = $280.  Since I'm only paying out 2 places, that means the winner gets $210, and 2nd place gets $70.  My goal this year, as with every year is not to get eliminated before the final game.  I also would love to see lots and lots of upsets.  I like the idea of rewarding people for taking upsets to happen.  It's kind of gutless to just pick with the point spread every time.  Actually, it's not "kind of" gutless.  It is totally gutless.  Don't do that.

The football gods kind of helped that along with the first game of the Bowl season.  The point spread on the Celebration Bowl was Grambling -15.5.  I'm guessing that a lot of people couldn't find that game listed, because 15.5 points is the largest point spread I was able to find, but based on the pick distribution, this game was 22nd on median pick.

For some perspective, here are the total points people took on the games today:

New Mexico	1438
Celebration	1127
Cure	1015
Las Vegas	844
New Orleans	812
Camellia	602

Here are the pick distributions for the games:

Celebration Bowl:

Vegas Line: Grambling -15.5

Median Pick: Grambling for 18 points

Picks:

Grambling:  43 (Average points = 25.23)

NC Central: 13  (Average points = 3.23)

New Mexico Bowl:

Vegas Line:  New Mexico -7.5

Median Pick: New Mexico for 28 points

Picks:

New Mexico: 51 (Average points: 27.51)

UTSA: 5 (Average points: 7)

Las Vegas Bowl

Vegas Line:  Houston -4.5

Median Pick: Houston for 8 points

Picks:

Houston:  36 (Average points: 17.31)

San Diego State: 20 (Average points: 11.05)

Camelia Bowl

Vegas Line: Appalachian State -1

Median pick: Toledo for 2.5

Picks:

Toledo: 29 (Average points: 12.86)

Appalachian State: 27 (average points: 8.48)

Cure Bowl

Vegas Line: UCF -6

Median Pick: UCF for 15 points

Picks:

UCF: 45 (Average points:  19.53)

Arkansas State (11 (Average points: 12.36)

New Orleans Bowl

Vegas line: Southern Miss -6.5

Median pick: Southern Miss for 11

Picks:

Southern Miss: 45 (Average points: 15.78)

Louisiana-Lafayette: 11 (Average points: 9.27)

That's a lot of games for the opening weekend.  I don't remember having 6 games on the opening Saturday last year.  Then again, my wife didn't really remember actually finishing in the money last year, so maybe it's not so strange that details of any one bowl season are ephemeral.

Looking at the picks, it looks like only one person employed the 41-1 or 1-41 strategy.  I'm not a huge fan of that strategy, but then again, I always say that whatever strategy wins is the right one.  There's not a huge science to this.  I always think that if you knew everyone's picks ahead of time, you could design an optimal path to win.  I don't honestly think that's true.  It's a little like poker.  Even if you know the cards in everyone's hand, you can bet correctly, but the cards still need to come down and you can still lose despite playing it correctly.

Here are the people that have the most points up for grabs today:

Deborah G.	172
Dave M.	158
Jay H. #3	156
Julie S.	150
Dan S.	150

...and the fewest:

Nichole W.	53
Becky H.	52
Dan Dz.	51
Brett W.	27
Jay H. #2	21

As always, I will put out rankings as often as possible.  Early on there will be two rankings.  The first will be based on points won.  The second will be on net points (points won - points lost).  I think that net points is more indicative of how healthy your sheet is.  Both of these rankings converge in the end anyway, but net points seems like a better measure when there are a lot of games left.

After we get to a certain point, I'll calculate odds of winning based on all possible outcomes.  After that, I'll determine elimination games, and tell everyone what they are ahead of time.  That's always fun.  My hope is that the Championship game will mean something.  That's where this pool differs from the March Madness pool.  It's possible that someone can build up a big enough lead over the field that the winner is decided before all the games are played out.  If that happens, I hope it's me that does it.  If it can't be me, I'll settle for my Dad or wife.

My wife and me are going to see the new Star Wars movie this afternoon, so the updates will be kind of sparse today, but I'll get to them when I can.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!