2016 Bowl Pool - We 3 Chalk Games

After what was arguably the biggest upset of the Bowl season yesterday, it looks like it was status quo today as all 3 favorites won.  The average entry got 1.84 games right, gaining 32.71 points and losing 12.32 points, for a net gain of 20.39.  As I mentioned yesterday, 20 people took all three favorites, so it follows that 20 people went 3/3.  The big winners for the day were as follows:

5. Julie S.: 70 points (+10 in points, +10 in net points)

5. Dan S.: 70 (+8 in points, +9 in net points)

3. Stephanie P.: 71 (+12 in points, +16 in net points)

2. Mark ESPN: 73 (+6 in points, +4 in net points)

1. Freitag B.: 80 (#1 coming into today in points and net points)

For those that are wondering who "Mark ESPN" is, it's the head college football writer at ESPN.  He wrote an article for ESPN where he filled out a confidence pool and gave his logic for his picks.  He explicitly said not to use his picks in your confidence pool, which I immediately proceeded to ignore and entered into this pool.

I'll keep it positive today and not call out the 5 people that had the worst days.  They probably already know they had a bad day.  They don't need me to kick them while they are down.  Besides, one of these days, that person is going to be me, and I don't need to establish a precedent where I would be humiliating myself.

Here are the top points:

1. Freitag B.: 306 (-41)

2. Brent E. #2: 259 (-37)

3. Mark ESPN: 256 (-54)

4. Roth W.: 245 (-90)

5. Brent E. #1: 243 (-53)

6. Dave M.: 237 (-94)

7. Klei R.: 229 (-31)

8. Tim N.: 228 (-32)

9. Pete J. #1: 215 (-48)

10. Hal R. #1: 214 (-86)

10. Hal R. #2: 214 (-86)

12. Hutch H.: 208 (-82)

13. Michelle L. #2: 205 (-85)

14. Josiah T. #2: 204 (-75)

15. Mike W.: 203 (-70)

16. Deborah G.: 203 (-112)

17. Michelle L. #1: 202 (-66)

18. Adam E.: 199 (-51)

19. Mason A.: 197 (-80)

20. Nick B.: 195 (-81)

21. Scott H.: 194 (-69)

22. Scott Her. #2: 193 (-54)

23. Mike S.: 185 (-90)

24. Marc S.: 179 (-99)

25. Jim P.: 176 (-56)

26. Stephanie P.: 174 (-60)

27. Kevin F. #1: 166 (-70)

28. Ben S.: 166 (-88)

29. Damien R.: 161 (-54)

30. Brent S.: 161 (-80)

31. Julie S.: 161 (-162)

32. Marc R.: 160 (-91)

33. Pete J. #2: 158 (-105)

34. Dan S.: 158 (-165)

35. Josiah T. #1: 157 (-91)

36. Kevin F. #2: 155 (-82)

37. Ray R.: 150 (-100)

38. Matt N.: 145 (-73)

39. Jay H. #3: 144 (-124)

40. Scott Her. #1: 142 (-69)

41. Ryan W.: 139 (-130)

42. Brad R.: 135 (-153)

43. Jim W.: 130 (-96)

44. Dorthea R.: 98 (-163)

45. Ally H.: 91 (-39)

46. Dustin B.: 85 (-64)

47. Dylan B.: 84 (-138)

48. Jay H. #1: 84 (-142)

49. Becky H.: 76 (-84)

50. Chad L.: 70 (-122)

51. Jay H. #2: 68 (-23)

52. Dan Du.: 67 (-170)

53. Brett W.: 45 (-47)

54. Ash D.: 44 (-148)

55. Dan Dz.: 24 (-153)

56. Nichole W.: 12 (-104)

...and the top net points:

1. Freitag B.: 265

2. Brent E. #2: 222

3. Mark ESPN: 202

4. Klei R.: 198

5. Tim N.: 196

6. Brent E. #1: 190

7. Pete J. #1: 167

8. Roth W.: 155

9. Adam E.: 148

10. Dave M.: 143

11. Scott Her. #2: 139

12. Michelle L. #1: 136

13. Mike W.: 133

14. Josiah T. #2: 129

15. Hal R. #1: 128

15. Hal R. #2: 128

17. Hutch H.: 126

18. Scott H.: 125

19. Michelle L. #2: 120

19. Jim P.: 120

21. Mason A.: 117

22. Nick B.: 114

22. Stephanie P.: 114

24. Damien R.: 107

25. Kevin F. #1: 96

26. Mike S.: 95

27. Deborah G.: 91

28. Brent S.: 81

29. Marc S.: 80

30. Ben S.: 78

31. Kevin F. #2: 73

31. Scott Her. #1: 73

33. Matt N.: 72

34. Marc R.: 69

35. Josiah T. #1: 66

36. Pete J. #2: 53

37. Ally H.: 52

38. Ray R.: 50

39. Jay H. #2: 45

40. Jim W.: 34

41. Dustin B.: 21

42. Jay H. #3: 20

43. Ryan W.: 9

44. Julie S.: -1

45. Brett W.: -2

46. Dan S.: -7

47. Becky H.: -8

48. Brad R.: -18

49. Chad L.: -52

50. Dylan B.: -54

51. Jay H. #1: -58

52. Dorthea R.: -65

53. Nichole W.: -92

54. Dan Du.: -103

55. Ash D.: -104

56. Dan Dz.: -129

We are back to having just one game tomorrow, and it's a bit of a strange one.  It's the Hawaii Bowl.  When I was putting my sheet together, it was one of the games that did not have a point spread listed for some reason.  I never really figured out why that was, mostly because I never bothered to look it up.  I just stuck 1 point on Hawaii because they are playing a home game and was done with it.  That strategy may come back to bite me if I lose ground to people that actually knew anything about either team.

Here are the particulars:

Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee -7

Median pick: Middle Tennessee for 11

Picks:

Middle Tennessee: 33 (average points: 19.85)

Hawaii: 23 (average points: 11.48)

I wanted to see how common my pick of Hawaii for 1 point was, and I came up with some interesting stats.  It turns out that the Hawaii Bowl was the 3rd most common pick for the game allotted 1 point.  The second was the Camellia Bowl (Appalachian State vs. Toledo) with 6 sheets and #1 by a long shot was the first game of the season, the Celebration Bowl (NC Central vs Grambling) with 10 sheets.  If you extend that to the bottom 5 points, the three bowls you come up with are:

3. Quick Lane Bowl (Boston College vs. Maryland) - 18 sheets

2. Celebration - 19 sheets

1. Camellia - 22 sheets

I guess the surprise there is the Celebration Bowl.  It had the 22nd most points wagered overall.   The Hawaii Bowl is also a bit of a surprise given that comparable bowls where one team is about a 7 point favorite typically have a median pick about 10-12 points higher.  Clearly, people had the same issue as I did in that they didn't have a point spread to go on.

Enjoy the game!!!!