Bowl Pool - Initial odds and first eliminations

Woo Hoo!!!  We are finally at the point where we can calculate some odds.  Before I get to that, let me explain the way it will work from here on out.  I'll still keep track of the points, but I'll spend most of my time laying out the sheets that are going to be eliminated in the upcoming games.  The way I figure it out is that I generate all 32,678 ways the games can play out from here out, and then I figure out the amount of points each entry can get in each of those scenarios.  Then I see if you can get 1st or 2nd.  Most of the times, it leads to some unexpected outcomes.  For instance, Nichole W., who has been mired at the bottom of the points standings still has a chance to get 2nd place, while Roth W., who currently is sitting in 9th in points can't win anything.  It all comes down to what games you picked and for what points.  If you are behind someone that has similar picks and more points, you just can't pass them.  If you picked weird stuff, you might last longer, provided that weird stuff actually comes through.

All right.  For those interested, here the current point standings:

1. Brent E. #2: 459 (-185)

2. Tim N.: 453 (-232)

3. Mark ESPN: 445 (-197)

4. Brent E. #1: 443 (-201)

5. Nick B.: 415 (-215)

6. Dave M.: 414 (-225)

7. Mike W.: 410 (-220)

8. Marc S.: 405 (-223)

9. Roth W.: 405 (-245)

10. Josiah T. #2: 404 (-220)

11. Klei R.: 402 (-171)

12. Pete J. #1: 389 (-202)

13. Freitag B.: 389 (-259)

14. Adam E.: 387 (-224)

15. Michelle L. #2: 386 (-206)

16. Hutch H.: 386 (-226)

17. Mike S.: 382 (-238)

18. Deborah G.: 381 (-261)

19. Hal R. #1: 374 (-228)

20. Michelle L. #1: 369 (-228)

21. Hal R. #2: 368 (-234)

22. Damien R.: 358 (-220)

23. Mason A.: 355 (-247)

24. Scott Her. #2: 352 (-210)

25. Marc R.: 349 (-258)

26. Stephanie P.: 345 (-245)

27. Ben S.: 329 (-252)

28. Scott H.: 324 (-312)

29. Kevin F. #1: 322 (-277)

30. Brent S.: 320 (-173)

31. Josiah T. #1: 315 (-313)

32. Matt N.: 314 (-268)

33. Pete J. #2: 313 (-278)

34. Jim P.: 307 (-237)

35. Scott Her. #1: 297 (-226)

36. Ryan W.: 294 (-269)

37. Kevin F. #2: 282 (-300)

38. Ray R.: 281 (-282)

39. Dorthea R.: 270 (-257)

40. Dan Dz.: 269 (-290)

41. Dan S.: 268 (-309)

42. Julie S.: 260 (-317)

43. Becky H.: 248 (-247)

44. Dan Du.: 247 (-373)

45. Jim W.: 242 (-284)

46. Brad R.: 242 (-359)

47. Jay H. #3: 237 (-279)

48. Ally H.: 236 (-263)

49. Chad L.: 236 (-294)

50. Dylan B.: 227 (-329)

51. Jay H. #2: 218 (-188)

52. Ash D.: 200 (-339)

53. Dustin B.: 187 (-253)

54. Brett W.: 167 (-255)

55. Nichole W.: 154 (-262)

56. Jay H. #1: 154 (-331)

Before I get to the initial percentages, we need to bid adieu to the 20 entries that are mathematically eliminated from any of the 2 payouts.  Better luck next year to these people:

Ash D.

Brad R.

Chad L.

Dan Du.

Dan S.

Dylan B.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #3

Jim P.

Josiah T. #1

Julie S.

Kevin F. #1

Kevin F. #2

Mason A.

Matt N.

Pete J. #2

Roth W.

Ryan W.

Scott H.

Stephanie P.

There are only 25 people still alive for 1st place.  The top of these standings should come as no shock to people that have been following the scoreboard all along:

1.: Brent E. #2 (35.4064%)

2.: Klei R. (20.8333%)

3.: Mark ESPN (16.9626%)

4.: Brent E. #1 (8.9385%)

5.: Damien R. (3.8157%)

6.: Tim N. (3.216%)

7.: Brent S. (3.068%)

8.: Michelle L. #2 (2.3462%)

9.: Josiah T. #2 (1.2115%)

10.: Jay H. #2 (1.0986%)

11.: Adam E. (0.6042%)

12.: Pete J. #1 (0.5371%)

13.: Mike W. (0.5213%)

14.: Deborah G. (0.474%)

15.: Dave M. (0.3738%)

16.: Scott Her. #1 (0.2929%)

17.: Scott Her. #2 (0.0946%)

18.: Hutch H. (0.0854%)

19.: Dorthea R. (0.0701%)

20.: Hal R. #1 (0.0137%)

20.: Nick B. (0.0137%)

22.: Marc S. (0.0122%)

23.: Mike S. (0.0045%)

24.: Marc R. (0.003%)

25.: Ben S. (0.0015%)

If I'm not mistaken, I think the top 8 people in this pool have won money in my pools before.  I don't know if that's a coincidence or a pattern.  There's still a lot of games left, so don't lose faith.  If you are on this list, you still have a chance.

Here are the percentages for 2nd place:

1.: Brent E. #2 (20.318%)

2.: Brent E. #1 (15.9973%)

3.: Mark ESPN (14.186%)

4.: Klei R. (13.9434%)

5.: Tim N. (7.876%)

6.: Michelle L. #2 (3.7699%)

7.: Brent S. (3.1428%)

8.: Pete J. #1 (3.1331%)

9.: Damien R. (2.6616%)

10.: Josiah T. #2 (2.5034%)

11.: Nick B. (2.1113%)

12.: Dave M. (1.7466%)

13.: Adam E. (1.6632%)

14.: Mike W. (1.4918%)

15.: Deborah G. (1.1235%)

16.: Jay H. #2 (1.0096%)

17.: Marc S. (0.9663%)

18.: Hutch H. (0.7517%)

19.: Scott Her. #2 (0.5457%)

20.: Scott Her. #1 (0.3321%)

21.: Dorthea R. (0.1724%)

22.: Ben S. (0.1276%)

23.: Hal R. #1 (0.0625%)

24.: Brett W. (0.0595%)

25.: Freitag B. (0.0564%)

26.: Michelle L. #1 (0.0534%)

27.: Mike S. (0.0473%)

28.: Becky H. (0.0457%)

29.: Ray R. (0.0289%)

30.: Dustin B. (0.0183%)

31.: Marc R. (0.0152%)

32.: Jim W. (0.0122%)

33.: Ally H. (0.0091%)

33.: Dan Dz. (0.0091%)

35.: Hal R. #2 (0.0045%)

36.: Nichole W. (0.003%)

There are few more people alive for 2nd place, which makes it more fun.  Good luck to those people. 

There are 5 games going off tomorrow.  Here are the single-game eliminations.  There are many ways a single game won't knock you out, but some combination of 2-5 games tomorrow could.  I'll provide a rundown tomorrow in the update.

Sun Bowl:

If North Carolina wins:

Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Jim W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Mike S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Stanford wins:

Nick B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Marc S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Hal R. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Ben S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Brett W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Dan Dz. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Freitag B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Nichole W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

               

Arizona Bowl:

If Air Force wins:

Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Ben S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Damien R. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Dan Dz. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Dorthea R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Marc S. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Scott Her. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If South Alabama wins:

Hal R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention. Hal R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Nichole W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Nick B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Liberty Bowl:

If Georgia wins:

Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Marc R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Marc S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Mike W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Nick B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If TCU wins:

Ben S. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Dan Dz. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Freitag B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Hal R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Hal R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Nichole W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Music City Bowl:

If Nebraska wins:

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dorthea R. is eliminated from 1st & 2ndplace contention.

Hal R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Marc S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Scott Her. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Scott Her. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

If Tennessee wins:

Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Becky H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Ben S. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Dan Dz. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Freitag B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Hal R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Jim W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Nichole W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Nick B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Orange Bowl:

If Florida State wins:

Ben S. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Dan Dz. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Hal R. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Hal R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Nichole W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Nick B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott Her. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Michigan wins:

Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

That's it.  I'm sure there will be plenty more eliminations than just the ones listed here due to the combinations I mentioned earlier.  We should have a pretty significant narrowing of the field.  I'll try to keep people informed about what games knocked them out of what positions.  Good luck to everyone!!!  Try not to get eliminated!!!!