Two games down today, and we had our second upset (of
sorts). Clemson was picked more in our
pool, but Vegas had Oklahoma as the favorites.
This put a big cramp in the run of Sally R. as she had Oklahoma as the
National Champion, so she comes back to the field a little bit.
That's one thing that makes this pool a lot different than
the March Madness pool. In this one,
many times the Championship game (or last Bowl game in years past) doesn't
determine anything. The championship
game here is only for 30 points which is a little over 3% of all the
points. In the March Madness pool, the last
3 games combine for 33% of the overall points, so wild swings happen all the
time. That's also why it's nearly
impossible to get more than one place in that pool, where it is possible in
this one.
I'm sure you didn't come here to hear a comparison of the
various college pools I put on, so here's the updated probabilities to win the
Bowl Pool as of right now:
1. Klei R. (20.2636%)
|
2. Sally R. (14.746%)
|
3. Pete J. #2 (11.7187%)
|
4. Brent E. #2 (9.9934%)
|
5. Jay H. #1 (9.3261%)
|
6. Ashley D. (7.0475%)
|
7. Dan D. (5.9407%)
|
8. Marc R. #1 (5.4036%)
|
9. Marc R. #2 (4.7851%)
|
10. Matt N. (4.0364%)
|
11. Brad R. (2.5065%)
|
12. Brent E. #1 (1.5299%)
|
13. Scott H. #1 (0.9765%)
|
14. Michelle L. #1 (0.9114%)
|
15. Jay H. #2 (0.3417%)
|
16. Brett W. (0.2115%)
|
17. Damien R. #2 (0.0976%)
|
17. Becky H. (0.0976%)
|
19. Michelle L. #2 (0.0325%)
|
19. Jim W. (0.0325%)
|
...and the probability of getting second place:
1. Klei R. (11.1653%)
|
2. Sally R. (10.1562%)
|
3. Marc R. #2 (10.0585%)
|
4. Brent E. #2 (9.5703%)
|
5. Pete J. #2 (9.044%)
|
6. Ashley D. (8.279%)
|
7. Jay H. #1 (6.9281%)
|
8. Marc R. #1 (6.6243%)
|
9. Dan D. (5.9733%)
|
10. Brad R. (5.9027%)
|
11. Michelle L. #1 (4.3891%)
|
12. Brent E. #1 (4.069%)
|
13. Matt N. (4.0473%)
|
14. Scott H. #1 (1.416%)
|
15. Michelle L. #2 (0.4882%)
|
16. Jay H. #2 (0.4557%)
|
16. Dustin B. (0.4557%)
|
18. Brett W. (0.2929%)
|
19. Jim W. (0.2278%)
|
20. Damien R. #2 (0.1953%)
|
21. Becky H. (0.179%)
|
22. Mike W. (0.0813%)
|
..and the overall points:
1.
Brad R.: 528 (-278)
|
2.
Sally R.: 460 (-184)
|
3.
Marc R. #2: 455 (-191)
|
4.
Pete J. #2: 450 (-194)
|
5.
Klei R.: 446 (-158)
|
6.
Dan D.: 440 (-193)
|
7.
Jim W.: 439 (-262)
|
8.
Ashley D.: 437 (-216)
|
9.
Jay H. #1: 433 (-183)
|
10.
Marc R. #1: 432 (-184)
|
11.
Brent E. #2: 429 (-164)
|
12.
Brent E. #1: 429 (-194)
|
13.
Mike W.: 427 (-250)
|
14.
Damien R. #1: 424 (-293)
|
15.
Matt N.: 414 (-196)
|
16.
Mike S. #2: 412 (-254)
|
17.
Michelle L. #1: 409 (-188)
|
18.
Craig G.: 400 (-256)
|
19.
Michelle L. #2: 395 (-199)
|
20.
Mike S. #1: 387 (-289)
|
21.
Roth W. #1: 386 (-302)
|
22.
Dave M.: 380 (-261)
|
23.
Chris L.: 380 (-267)
|
24.
Scott H. #1: 376 (-219)
|
25.
Ray R.: 371 (-278)
|
26.
Jay H. #3: 362 (-284)
|
27.
Becky H.: 360 (-273)
|
28.
Adam E.: 359 (-306)
|
29.
Brent S. #1: 349 (-265)
|
30.
Scott H. #2: 343 (-218)
|
31.
Pete J. #1: 338 (-306)
|
32.
Brett W.: 333 (-222)
|
33.
Brent S. #2: 329 (-234)
|
34.
Dustin B.: 321 (-197)
|
35.
Ryan W.: 320 (-283)
|
36.
Damien R. #2: 314 (-234)
|
37.
Nichole W.: 309 (-319)
|
38.
Ally H.: 300 (-339)
|
39.
Mindi W.: 294 (-296)
|
40.
Tim N.: 293 (-323)
|
41.
James R.: 292 (-320)
|
42.
Jay H. #2: 282 (-214)
|
43.
Dylan B.: 248 (-291)
|
44.
Roth W. #2: 209 (-287)
|
Some of you may be wondering how it is that Brad R. with a
68 point lead on the field can have only a 5.9% chance to win this thing. The reason is because of the way he
distributed his points. He went with a
(roughly) 41-1 descending pattern, so he's already allocated 90%+ of all his
points. The average for everyone else in
the pool is 69.25%. So he has a big
lead, but can't really add a lot more, where other people can. Fun strategy though, especially since he gets
bragging rights for quite a long time.
There's one more game left today, and that means even more
eliminations. Here they are:
If Michigan State wins:
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention
(Alabama for 38 + Champion)
|
Brett W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention
(Alabama for 37 + Champion)
Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention
(Alabama for 37)
|
Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention (Alabama for 41
+ Champion)
|
Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention
(Alabama for 40 + Champion)
Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention
(Michigan State for 1 + Alabama Champ)
|
Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention
(Alabama for 38 + Champion)
|
If Alabama wins:
Becky H. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention
(Michigan State for 22)
|
Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention
(Michigan State for 38 + Champion)
|
Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (Michigan
State for 1)
|
Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Michigan
State for 32 + Champion)
|
Jim W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention
(Michigan State for 23 + Champion)
|
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention (Michigan
State for 30 + Champion)
Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention
(Michigan State for 1)
|
I had to double check this, but Mike W. had Michigan State
winning the Cotton Bowl, but had Alabama winning the National Championship
game. There's nothing that prevents
anyone from doing that, but in this instance it looks like regardless of the
outcome of this game Mike W. is going to be eliminated. That's a strange piece of pool trivia, but
that's what you get here.
For those that are interested, here are the pick
distributions:
Alabama: 29 picks (average = 29.45)
Michigan State: 15 picks (average = 19.60)
Median pick: Alabama for 19.5.
Good luck everyone!
I'll have a recap later tonight!!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment