Thursday, December 31, 2015

After Orange Bowl



Two games down today, and we had our second upset (of sorts).  Clemson was picked more in our pool, but Vegas had Oklahoma as the favorites.  This put a big cramp in the run of Sally R. as she had Oklahoma as the National Champion, so she comes back to the field a little bit.

That's one thing that makes this pool a lot different than the March Madness pool.  In this one, many times the Championship game (or last Bowl game in years past) doesn't determine anything.  The championship game here is only for 30 points which is a little over 3% of all the points.  In the March Madness pool, the last 3 games combine for 33% of the overall points, so wild swings happen all the time.  That's also why it's nearly impossible to get more than one place in that pool, where it is possible in this one.

I'm sure you didn't come here to hear a comparison of the various college pools I put on, so here's the updated probabilities to win the Bowl Pool as of right now:

1. Klei R. (20.2636%)
2. Sally R. (14.746%)
3. Pete J. #2 (11.7187%)
4. Brent E. #2 (9.9934%)
5. Jay H. #1 (9.3261%)
6. Ashley D. (7.0475%)
7. Dan D. (5.9407%)
8. Marc R. #1 (5.4036%)
9. Marc R. #2 (4.7851%)
10. Matt N. (4.0364%)
11. Brad R. (2.5065%)
12. Brent E. #1 (1.5299%)
13. Scott H. #1 (0.9765%)
14. Michelle L. #1 (0.9114%)
15. Jay H. #2 (0.3417%)
16. Brett W. (0.2115%)
17. Damien R. #2 (0.0976%)
17. Becky H. (0.0976%)
19. Michelle L. #2 (0.0325%)
19. Jim W. (0.0325%)

...and the probability of getting second place:

1. Klei R. (11.1653%)
2. Sally R. (10.1562%)
3. Marc R. #2 (10.0585%)
4. Brent E. #2 (9.5703%)
5. Pete J. #2 (9.044%)
6. Ashley D. (8.279%)
7. Jay H. #1 (6.9281%)
8. Marc R. #1 (6.6243%)
9. Dan D. (5.9733%)
10. Brad R. (5.9027%)
11. Michelle L. #1 (4.3891%)
12. Brent E. #1 (4.069%)
13. Matt N. (4.0473%)
14. Scott H. #1 (1.416%)
15. Michelle L. #2 (0.4882%)
16. Jay H. #2 (0.4557%)
16. Dustin B. (0.4557%)
18. Brett W. (0.2929%)
19. Jim W. (0.2278%)
20. Damien R. #2 (0.1953%)
21. Becky H. (0.179%)
22. Mike W. (0.0813%)


..and the overall points:

1. Brad R.: 528 (-278)
2. Sally R.: 460 (-184)
3. Marc R. #2: 455 (-191)
4. Pete J. #2: 450 (-194)
5. Klei R.: 446 (-158)
6. Dan D.: 440 (-193)
7. Jim W.: 439 (-262)
8. Ashley D.: 437 (-216)
9. Jay H. #1: 433 (-183)
10. Marc R. #1: 432 (-184)
11. Brent E. #2: 429 (-164)
12. Brent E. #1: 429 (-194)
13. Mike W.: 427 (-250)
14. Damien R. #1: 424 (-293)
15. Matt N.: 414 (-196)
16. Mike S. #2: 412 (-254)
17. Michelle L. #1: 409 (-188)
18. Craig G.: 400 (-256)
19. Michelle L. #2: 395 (-199)
20. Mike S. #1: 387 (-289)
21. Roth W. #1: 386 (-302)
22. Dave M.: 380 (-261)
23. Chris L.: 380 (-267)
24. Scott H. #1: 376 (-219)
25. Ray R.: 371 (-278)
26. Jay H. #3: 362 (-284)
27. Becky H.: 360 (-273)
28. Adam E.: 359 (-306)
29. Brent S. #1: 349 (-265)
30. Scott H. #2: 343 (-218)
31. Pete J. #1: 338 (-306)
32. Brett W.: 333 (-222)
33. Brent S. #2: 329 (-234)
34. Dustin B.: 321 (-197)
35. Ryan W.: 320 (-283)
36. Damien R. #2: 314 (-234)
37. Nichole W.: 309 (-319)
38. Ally H.: 300 (-339)
39. Mindi W.: 294 (-296)
40. Tim N.: 293 (-323)
41. James R.: 292 (-320)
42. Jay H. #2: 282 (-214)
43. Dylan B.: 248 (-291)
44. Roth W. #2: 209 (-287)


Some of you may be wondering how it is that Brad R. with a 68 point lead on the field can have only a 5.9% chance to win this thing.  The reason is because of the way he distributed his points.  He went with a (roughly) 41-1 descending pattern, so he's already allocated 90%+ of all his points.  The average for everyone else in the pool is 69.25%.  So he has a big lead, but can't really add a lot more, where other people can.  Fun strategy though, especially since he gets bragging rights for quite a long time.

There's one more game left today, and that means even more eliminations.  Here they are:

If Michigan State wins:
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Alabama for 38 + Champion)
Brett W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Alabama for 37 + Champion)
Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention (Alabama for 37)
Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention (Alabama for 41 + Champion)
Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Alabama for 40 + Champion)
Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention (Michigan State for 1 + Alabama Champ)
Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Alabama for 38 + Champion)


If Alabama wins:
Becky H. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Michigan State for 22)
Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Michigan State for 38 + Champion)
Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (Michigan State for 1)
Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Michigan State for 32 + Champion)
Jim W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Michigan State for 23 + Champion)
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention (Michigan State for 30 + Champion)
Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention (Michigan State for 1)

I had to double check this, but Mike W. had Michigan State winning the Cotton Bowl, but had Alabama winning the National Championship game.  There's nothing that prevents anyone from doing that, but in this instance it looks like regardless of the outcome of this game Mike W. is going to be eliminated.  That's a strange piece of pool trivia, but that's what you get here.

For those that are interested, here are the pick distributions:

Alabama: 29 picks (average = 29.45)
Michigan State: 15 picks (average = 19.60)

Median pick: Alabama for 19.5.

Good luck everyone!  I'll have a recap later tonight!!!!

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