Intial Probabilities and Peach Bowl eliminations

Good morning.  This is maybe my favorite part of the pool every year.  It's the first day that I can calculate the probabilities of the various payouts, and we can start figuring out when people get mathematically eliminated.

Let's start off with the bad news first.  Here are the people that can't get 1st or 2nd place at all:

Ally H.

Brent S. #1

Chris L.

Damien R. #1

Dylan B.

James R.

Mike S. #1

Mindi W.

Nichole W.

Pete J. #1

Roth W. #1

Roth W. #2

Ryan W.

Scott H. #2

Tough break to those 14 people.  Better luck next year.  Here are the people that are alive for 2nd place only:

Adam E.

Dave M.

Dustin B.

Jay H. #3

Tim N.

I was a little surprised to see Tim N. on this list, since he's been mired at the bottom of the standings pretty much throughout the pool, but he must have some bizzarro picks and weights that get him all the way near the top.  Not a bad strategy if it works.

There are no people that are eliminated from 2nd, but can still get 1st.  That will probably happen sooner or later, and I always think it's weird, but that's the way the scoring for this pool goes.

 Last night's Wisconsin upset of USC turned out to be a pretty big game for the people at the top of the initial 1st place probabilities.  As you may remember, the median pick on that game was USC for 28 points.  Only 7 people picked Wisconsin, and of those 7, 4 of them are in the top 10 of the initial probabilities to win.  In the case of Sally R., she took Wisconsin for 39 points, so she essentially made up 67 points on the field.  I think it's that kind of picking that can and should win pools like this.  So, without any further ado, here are the initial probabilities for 1st place:

1. Klei R. (23.5351%)

2. Sally R. (20.1863%)

3. Dan D. (12.4674%)

4. Marc R. #2 (9.7229%)

5. Pete J. #2 (8.7046%)

6. Matt N. (5.3517%)

7. Brent E. #2 (4.9062%)

8. Jay H. #1 (2.6641%)

9. Ashley D. (2.4261%)

10. Marc R. #1 (2.2572%)

11. Jay H. #2 (1.9989%)

12. Brent E. #1 (1.419%)

13. Scott H. #1 (1.359%)

14. Damien R. #2 (0.8819%)

15. Brad R. (0.6622%)

16. Jim W. (0.5452%)

17. Michelle L. #1 (0.241%)

18. Craig G. (0.1363%)

19. Ray R. (0.1007%)

20. Mike S. #2 (0.0915%)

21. Brett W. (0.0885%)

22. Becky H. (0.0854%)

22. Michelle L. #2 (0.0854%)

24. Mike W. (0.0518%)

25. Brent S. #2 (0.0305%)

...and the initial probabilities for 2nd place:

1. Klei R. (13.8804%)

2. Marc R. #2 (10.7055%)

3. Dan D. (10.5209%)

4. Pete J. #2 (8.9004%)

5. Sally R. (8.6791%)

6. Marc R. #1 (7.4106%)

7. Brent E. #2 (6.5582%)

8. Brent E. #1 (6.2103%)

9. Ashley D. (5.902%)

10. Matt N. (5.8115%)

11. Jay H. #1 (2.5705%)

12. Brad R. (2.4836%)

13. Jay H. #2 (1.8809%)

14. Scott H. #1 (1.6331%)

15. Michelle L. #1 (1.4841%)

16. Damien R. #2 (1.2654%)

17. Jim W. (1.1159%)

18. Mike S. #2 (0.6286%)

19. Michelle L. #2 (0.4699%)

20. Ray R. (0.3723%)

21. Craig G. (0.3316%)

22. Mike W. (0.2838%)

23. Dustin B. (0.2716%)

24. Becky H. (0.2197%)

25. Brent S. #2 (0.18%)

25. Brett W. (0.18%)

27. Jay H. #3 (0.0213%)

28. Tim N. (0.0122%)

29. Dave M. (0.0091%)

30. Adam E. (0.0061%)

But that's only half the fun.  There are 3 games today which means there are eliminations!!!  I'll be at home most of the day, so I can provide game by game updates of eliminations and standings.  So, I'll just start with the first game of the day, which is the Peach Bowl.

If Florida State wins:

Brett W. is eliminated from 1st place contention  (Houston for 2) Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention (Houston for 27)

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention  (Houston for 3)

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (Florida State for 25)

If Houston wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (FSU for 35)

Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (FSU for 41)

Mike S. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (FSU for 28)

Tim N. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (FSU for 31)

For those that care about the particulars of the Peach Bowl, here are the picks:

Florida State: 32 (Average pick = 25.81)

Houston: 12 (Average pick = 19.50)

The median pick for this game was Florida State for 23 points.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!