Bowl Pool Update - After a couple of ho hum semi-finals

 Despite everything, probabilities do not equal outcomes.  You still have to continue to pick winners.  I learned this the hard way being in 1^st place early on and then fading once I couldn’t pick a winner in a one horse race.  The latest victim to this is Becky H.  At one point, she had around a 60% chance of winning one of the three places.  However, a lot of the reason she had that high of a probability to begin with and part of the reason her probabilities took a tumble was that she was one of the few people that had Michigan winning it all.  In the March Madness pool, this is what I called a “high leverage” pick.  Often times when I calculate the odds at the Sweet 16, someone has a really high percent chance of winning it all.  That person usually is the only person who picked some random #4 seed to win it all – and that probability is accurate.  If that random #4 seed actually wins it all, they will, in almost all likelihood, win the pool.  However, if (and when) that random #4 seed loses, their odds drop precipitously.  Same here with Becky H. and Michigan.  Luckily for her, she didn’t totally drop out of the odds for 1^st.  She was the only person of the remaining live entrants who didn’t pick Georgia and is still alive.  Anyone else that went with Michigan is dead for 1^st.  Fun times.

By the way, Becky H. lives in Michigan, so this may have been a little bit of a homer pick.  If it is, good for her.  What kind of jerk doesn’t root for the home team?  Much respect for that pick.

Here are the updated points standings:

Total

1. Hutch H.: 501 (-369)

2. Matt N.: 489 (-351)

3. Scott H. #2: 487 (-406)

4. Chad L.: 480 (-366)

5. Cam L.: 473 (-342)

6. Mark A.: 452 (-364)

7. Mike N.: 446 (-440)

8. Daniel E.: 442 (-408)

9. Michelle L. #1: 441 (-438)

10. Becky H.: 439 (-337)

11. Brian K.: 428 (-371)

12. Dylan L.: 427 (-416)

13. Adam O. #3: 424 (-424)

14. Jason S.: 423 (-395)

15. Josiah T. #2: 421 (-437)

16. Pete J. #2: 415 (-444)

17. Josiah T. #1: 414 (-457)

18. Marc R.: 411 (-337)

19. Jay H. #2: 410 (-434)

20. Klei R.: 407 (-427)

21. Larry G. #2: 405 (-485)

22. Adam O. #2: 403 (-445)

23. Dylan B.: 402 (-458)

24. Adam O. #1: 399 (-449)

25. Amy L.: 397 (-461)

26. Dan D.: 394 (-393)

27. Ben S.: 392 (-478)

28. Mike W.: 388 (-398)

29. Ryan W.: 377 (-428)

30. Adam O. #4: 377 (-471)

31. Michelle L. #2: 377 (-483)

32. Brad R.: 372 (-421)

33. Brent S.: 368 (-354)

34. Damien R.: 360 (-480)

35. Pete J. #1: 360 (-499)

36. Scott H. #1: 355 (-477)

37. Stefan K.: 349 (-422)

38. Dustin B.: 346 (-431)

39. Matt M.: 336 (-519)

40. Emily T.: 327 (-534)

41. Larry G. #1: 319 (-559)

42. Grant F.: 318 (-543)

43. Ally H.: 317 (-470)

44. Weston T. (Shane): 317 (-557)

45. Brett W.: 311 (-477)

46. Lee K.: 304 (-481)

47. Doug L.: 271 (-496)

48. Tom B.: 264 (-490)

49. Jay H. #1: 251 (-511)

50. Creighton H.: 242 (-537)

51. Adam E.: 236 (-524)

…and the matrix:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Matt N.	23.83%	19.53%	11.72%
Hutch H.	14.06%	17.58%	16.80%
Cam L.	14.84%	14.06%	18.75%
Chad L.	15.23%	14.45%	12.11%
Mark A.	13.28%	12.50%	5.47%
Marc R.	12.50%	7.03%	7.03%
Becky H.	0.78%	6.25%	5.08%
Brian K.	1.56%	1.17%	6.64%
Brent S.	1.56%	3.13%	4.30%
Scott H. #2	Pitt	0.78%	6.25%
Dan D.	2.34%	2.34%	2.34%
Jason S.	Az State	0.78%	2.73%
Mike W.	Michigan	0.39%	0.78%
Mike N.	Initial	N. Car	Tennessee
Daniel E.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Az State
Michelle L. #1	Tennessee	Pitt	Michigan
Dylan L.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam O. #3	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Josiah T. #2	Initial	Initial	Pitt
Pete J. #2	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Josiah T. #1	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Jay H. #2	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Klei R.	Az State	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Larry G. #2	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam O. #2	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Dylan B.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Pitt
Adam O. #1	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Amy L.	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Ben S.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee
Ryan W.	Pitt	Michigan	Michigan
Adam O. #4	Initial	Tennessee	Pitt
Michelle L. #2	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Brad R.	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Damien R.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Pete J. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Scott H. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Stefan K.	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Dustin B.	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Matt M.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Emily T.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Larry G. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Grant F.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Ally H.	Pitt	Az State	Az State
Weston T. (Shane)	Initial	Initial	Initial
Brett W.	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Lee K.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Doug L.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Tom B.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Jay H. #1	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Creighton H.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam E.	Az State	Az State	Cincinnati

So, we started the day with 20 people alive for something, and we finished the day with only 13 people vying for 3 spots.  You can see that there is no clear favorite among the group, but there are clearly some people you would rather be right now than others.

For some reason, despite having all sorts of time tomorrow, the football scheduling gods have determined to hold 3 games more or less simultaneously.  That sucks.  I really liked the 4-games back-to-back that they did the other day.  That made my life so much easier, and I bet helped with ratings.  Now, the viewing audience is split, and I can’t effectively tell people when they could be knocked out.

For example, I can tell people if they lose game X (and only game X), they will be knocked out.  What is harder to tell people is that if Game X, Game Y & Game Z all happen, they will be knocked out, but anything short of that, they will be alive.  I mean, I could, but no one wants to read that.  That would be very dense.  So, the best I can do is tell the single game eliminations and update the matrix and standings after the games are over.  That’s not great, but it’s the best I can do.

Here we go:

Outback Bowl

If Penn State Wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Brian K. is eliminated from 1^st, 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Dan D. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

 

If Arkansas Wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Rank for 1st	Pick	Points
1.: Matt N. (23.8281%)	Penn State	2
2.: Chad L. (15.2343%)	Penn State	20
3.: Cam L. (14.8437%)	Penn State	16
4.: Hutch H. (14.0625%)	Arkansas	4
5.: Mark A. (13.2812%)	Arkansas	27
6.: Marc R. (12.5%)	Arkansas	28
7.: Dan D. (2.3437%)	Arkansas	23
8.: Brian K. (1.5625%)	Arkansas	34
8.: Brent S. (1.5625%)	Penn State	31
10.: Becky H. (0.7812%)	Arkansas	7

 

 

Citrus Bowl

If Kentucky Wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 1^st & 3^rd place contention.

Brian K. is eliminated from 1^st & 2^nd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

 

If Iowa Wins:

Jason S. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Rank for 1st	Pick	Points
1.: Matt N. (23.8281%)	Iowa	19
2.: Chad L. (15.2343%)	Iowa	1
3.: Cam L. (14.8437%)	Iowa	20
4.: Hutch H. (14.0625%)	Kentucky	14
5.: Mark A. (13.2812%)	Kentucky	26
6.: Marc R. (12.5%)	Iowa	32
7.: Dan D. (2.3437%)	Iowa	26
8.: Brian K. (1.5625%)	Iowa	28
8.: Brent S. (1.5625%)	Iowa	35
10.: Becky H. (0.7812%)	Iowa	34

 

Fiesta Bowl

If Notre Dame Wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 1^st & 2^nd place contention.

Dan D. is eliminated from 1^st & 3^rd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

 

If Oklahoma State Wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 1^st & 2^nd place contention.

Chad L. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

Rank for 1st	Pick	Points
1.: Matt N. (23.8281%)	Oklahoma State	20
2.: Chad L. (15.2343%)	Notre Dame	19
3.: Cam L. (14.8437%)	Notre Dame	17
4.: Hutch H. (14.0625%)	Oklahoma State	10
5.: Mark A. (13.2812%)	Oklahoma State	20
6.: Marc R. (12.5%)	Notre Dame	38
7.: Dan D. (2.3437%)	Oklahoma State	40
8.: Brian K. (1.5625%)	Notre Dame	4
8.: Brent S. (1.5625%)	Notre Dame	37
10.: Becky H. (0.7812%)	Oklahoma State	20

   

That’s almost assuredly not a complete list of all the people that will be eliminated, but it gives you a rough idea of the “for sure” losses.

I hope everyone enjoys / enjoyed the holiday.  Stay safe out there!!!!