Bowl Pool update - Omicron presents its hideous visage edition

 Everyone should know by know that I love upsets.  Up until the Gasparilla Bowl, we had 6 favorites win.  All but one of those games featured a point spread lower than the one in the Gasparilla Bowl, but that’s why they play the games.  Speaking of which, I kind of made fun of the Frisco Football Classic being played in a soccer stadium.  After watching a little bit of the game and thinking about it, I think it’s probably a great place to play a game like that.  They aren’t going to sell out a 60,000 seat stadium.  Why not play in a mostly full 25,000 seat stadium instead of a half-empty cavern.  I kind of like it now.  It’s a Bowl game

However, since the Frisco Football Classic was not picked by many people for a lot of points, and not many people actually got points in the Gasparilla Bowl, there wasn’t a ton of movement at the top of the points standings.  That’s the beauty of the net points standings.  The total points standings hardly move at all if there is a big upset, but the net points can jumble a little since people lose more points than others.

To that end, we have a new leader in net points.  Becky H. takes over first place after being only one of 4 people to go 2/2 today.  Not only did she go 2/2, she got maximum points out of it.  The other three people that went 2/2 today averaged about 22 total points total.  Becky H. got 61 points.  That catapults her pretty comfortably in 1^st on net.  Great picking today, Becky.

Compliments of the pretty big upset, as a group we averaged getting less than one game correct today (0.8 correct, average net points = -14.3).  A whopping 13 people managed to get no games right today.  That’s a rough couple of games.

So, here are the standings:

1. Klei R.: 280 (-143)

2. Hutch H.: 264 (-137)

3. Josiah T. #1: 240 (-200)

4. Daniel E.: 234 (-160)

5. Becky H.: 231 (-71)

6. Mike W.: 225 (-127)

7. Ben S.: 221 (-111)

8. Josiah T. #2: 220 (-162)

9. Scott H. #2: 220 (-218)

10. Michelle L. #1: 218 (-207)

11. Pete J. #2: 217 (-202)

12. Mark A.: 216 (-202)

13. Jay H. #2: 213 (-185)

14. Larry G. #2: 213 (-197)

15. Matt N.: 206 (-131)

16. Chad L.: 202 (-171)

17. Jason S.: 201 (-82)

18. Pete J. #1: 201 (-218)

19. Mike N.: 198 (-122)

20. Adam E.: 188 (-163)

21. Michelle L. #2: 188 (-209)

22. Adam O. #3: 185 (-145)

23. Adam O. #1: 184 (-170)

24. Marc R.: 182 (-94)

25. Stefan K.: 179 (-109)

26. Dylan B.: 178 (-182)

27. Dylan L.: 177 (-173)

28. Adam O. #4: 176 (-170)

29. Brad R.: 171 (-102)

30. Adam O. #2: 169 (-170)

31. Cam L.: 167 (-151)

32. Damien R.: 165 (-209)

33. Emily T.: 156 (-203)

33. Grant F.: 156 (-203)

35. Ryan W.: 154 (-121)

36. Creighton H.: 147 (-173)

37. Weston T. (Shane): 144 (-203)

38. Brian K.: 141 (-150)

39. Dan D.: 137 (-74)

40. Dustin B.: 135 (-107)

41. Scott H. #1: 134 (-242)

42. Brett W.: 133 (-157)

43. Jay H. #1: 132 (-124)

44. Amy L.: 128 (-208)

45. Brent S.: 125 (-135)

46. Larry G. #1: 122 (-268)

47. Matt M.: 121 (-172)

48. Lee K.: 117 (-147)

49. Ally H.: 114 (-132)

50. Doug L.: 74 (-63)

51. Tom B.: 51 (-202)

…and the net points:

1. Becky H.: 160

2. Klei R.: 137

3. Hutch H.: 127

4. Jason S.: 119

5. Ben S.: 110

6. Mike W.: 98

7. Marc R.: 88

8. Mike N.: 76

9. Matt N.: 75

10. Daniel E.: 74

11. Stefan K.: 70

12. Brad R.: 69

13. Dan D.: 63

14. Josiah T. #2: 58

15. Josiah T. #1: 40

15. Adam O. #3: 40

17. Ryan W.: 33

18. Chad L.: 31

19. Jay H. #2: 28

19. Dustin B.: 28

21. Adam E.: 25

22. Larry G. #2: 16

22. Cam L.: 16

24. Pete J. #2: 15

25. Mark A.: 14

25. Adam O. #1: 14

27. Michelle L. #1: 11

27. Doug L.: 11

29. Jay H. #1: 8

30. Adam O. #4: 6

31. Dylan L.: 4

32. Scott H. #2: 2

33. Adam O. #2: -1

34. Dylan B.: -4

35. Brian K.: -9

36. Brent S.: -10

37. Pete J. #1: -17

38. Ally H.: -18

39. Michelle L. #2: -21

40. Brett W.: -24

41. Creighton H.: -26

42. Lee K.: -30

43. Damien R.: -44

44. Emily T.: -47

44. Grant F.: -47

46. Matt M.: -51

47. Weston T. (Shane): -59

48. Amy L.: -80

49. Scott H. #1: -108

50. Larry G. #1: -146

51. Tom B.: -151

Today marks this first time in the pool that anyone has surpassed 50% of all points wagered.  3 people did that.  Right now Josiah T. #1 has used the most points of anyone with 440 (51.76%).  He’s done pretty well with those points, sitting in 3^rd in total points and 15^th in net points.  The fewest points anyone has used so far, by the proverbial country mile is Doug L, who has only used 137 points so far.

I was discussing this pool today, and I think there’s a good analogy to playing a hole in golf to be made here.  Right now, everyone has more or less teed off.  Some of us have crushed a long drive down the fairway, and others have hooked our drive into the trees, but none of that means that we are going to birdie the hole.  There’s still an approach shot and sinking some putts to do before we know how we will do.  Just because I’m 300 yards down the fairway doesn’t mean I won’t shank the next shot in the water, just as someone in the woods can’t hit a great recovery shot.  It should be easier for me at this point, but there are a lot of shots left.

So, as I was writing this up, I went to my usual website to get the latest odds, and noticed that the game was taken off the board.  That’s not so strange.  Games get taken off the board all the time, especially late if someone is out and the linemakers haven’t had a chance to generate another one.

My next move was to look up what was going on with the Hawai’i Bowl, and this was the first headline I found: “Hawaii Bowl canceled less than 24 hours before game after Warriors say they won't play due to COVID-19 issues”.  In the grand scheme of things, I’m assuming that they are making the right decision.  I don’t think either team gets paid if they don’t play the game, so this is kind of big deal to cancel.  It does throw the pool into somewhat disarray.

When this pool started just a few weeks ago, I know the Omicron variant existed, and I was hoping that a combination of vaccines, safety measures and financial impacts would conspire to keep the games on and that everyone would be safe.  Apparently that is not happening.  Omicron is spreading much faster than I thought, people are still unvaccinated and all that is more than enough to overcome the loss of revenue.  Like I said, it’s probably the right move, I’m just scared what this means for the rest of the games.  We are less than halfway done and games are already getting cancelled.  Omicron has another full week plus to spread everywhere.  That’s not good….

So, here’s what’s going to happen, and it sucks that I have to make these types decisions.  I am going to treat cancelled games the same way ties are treated in a survivor pool.  Nobody will get any points.  That will hurt some people more than others, but my other option was re-jiggering everyone’s picks down to recalibrate them to 41 points max.  If I thought this was going to be the last game cancelled, I would probably do that.  I have zero faith that the Hawai’i Bowl will be the last one cancelled this season.  I don’t want to have to recalibrate a lot of scores multiple times.  That’s a lot of work for me, especially when we get to part of the season where we calculate the probabilities of winning.

Sorry to everyone for having to make these kind of rules as we go.  Someone is still going to win this pool and this year will definitely need an asterisk.

Stay safe everyone!!!