Bowl Pool 2021-22: Cross your fingers for 5 games edition.

 Hello everyone.  We were finished with games pretty early today, as the Quicklane Bowl was started at 8 AM on the West Coast.  I watched a good amount of this game today, and it brings up some kind of terrible trends in the Bowl season.

I think when this game was announced, the point spread was really close, maybe even a toss up.  Shortly afterward, the head coach left for another job, the starting QB decided not to play in the Bowl game to prepare for the draft and most of the receiver corp left via the transfer portal.  So, Nevada, which essentially had a pass-basd offense was left without virtually all of their weapons.  What was left over was kind of a shell of a team.  The starting QB was taking his first ever snaps as a college player, and he had no rhythm with whatever receivers they had left over.  It wasn’t good, and if I’m a Nevada fan, I’m not excited about any of it.

I’m not sure what you can do about coaches and players moving between the end of the regular season and the Bowl season.  I’m not sure what you can do to keep good players from skipping the game, but the end result is that people don’t recognize the team they watched all season and the team they saw in the Bowl game.  It definitely negatively impacts the product on the field.

Here are the updates standings (zero points for the Military Bowl included):

1. Klei R.: 319 (-184)

2. Hutch H.: 313 (-189)

3. Michelle L. #1: 281 (-257)

4. Becky H.: 276 (-107)

5. Josiah T. #2: 272 (-195)

6. Daniel E.: 266 (-203)

8. Scott H. #2: 265 (-265)

7. Josiah T. #1: 265 (-247)

9. Mike W.: 257 (-183)

10. Mark A.: 256 (-253)

11. Matt N.: 254 (-149)

12. Chad L.: 253 (-210)

13. Pete J. #2: 241 (-246)

14. Ben S.: 240 (-180)

15. Larry G. #2: 240 (-255)

16. Michelle L. #2: 237 (-259)

17. Mike N.: 229 (-197)

18. Jay H. #2: 228 (-249)

19. Pete J. #1: 225 (-262)

20. Stefan K.: 218 (-163)

21. Jason S.: 215 (-137)

22. Adam O. #3: 213 (-198)

23. Adam O. #1: 212 (-223)

24. Adam O. #4: 204 (-223)

25. Cam L.: 201 (-207)

26. Dylan B.: 200 (-201)

27. Marc R.: 198 (-140)

28. Adam O. #2: 197 (-219)

29. Dylan L.: 196 (-200)

30. Damien R.: 194 (-259)

31. Ryan W.: 193 (-167)

32. Adam E.: 189 (-206)

35. Emily T.: 185 (-248)

35. Grant F.: 185 (-248)

33. Brad R.: 185 (-160)

34. Brian K.: 185 (-201)

37. Weston T. (Shane): 184 (-245)

38. Matt M.: 163 (-226)

39. Brent S.: 153 (-182)

40. Scott H. #1: 151 (-280)

41. Brett W.: 148 (-236)

42. Creighton H.: 147 (-266)

43. Larry G. #1: 146 (-354)

44. Amy L.: 145 (-271)

45. Dustin B.: 144 (-158)

46. Jay H. #1: 138 (-161)

47. Dan D.: 137 (-113)

48. Lee K.: 135 (-184)

49. Ally H.: 114 (-203)

50. Doug L.: 84 (-124)

51. Tom B.: 59 (-245)

…and the net points:

1. Becky H.: 169

2. Klei R.: 135

3. Hutch H.: 124

4. Matt N.: 105

5. Jason S.: 78

6. Josiah T. #2: 77

7. Mike W.: 74

8. Daniel E.: 63

9. Ben S.: 60

10. Marc R.: 58

11. Stefan K.: 55

12. Chad L.: 43

13. Mike N.: 32

14. Ryan W.: 26

15. Brad R.: 25

16. Michelle L. #1: 24

16. Dan D.: 24

18. Josiah T. #1: 18

19. Adam O. #3: 15

20. Mark A.: 3

21. Scott H. #2: 0

22. Dylan B.: -1

23. Dylan L.: -4

24. Pete J. #2: -5

25. Cam L.: -6

26. Adam O. #1: -11

27. Dustin B.: -14

28. Larry G. #2: -15

29. Brian K.: -16

30. Adam E.: -17

31. Adam O. #4: -19

32. Jay H. #2: -21

33. Michelle L. #2: -22

33. Adam O. #2: -22

35. Jay H. #1: -23

36. Brent S.: -29

37. Pete J. #1: -37

38. Doug L.: -40

39. Lee K.: -49

40. Weston T. (Shane): -61

41. Emily T.: -63

41. Grant F.: -63

41. Matt M.: -63

44. Damien R.: -65

45. Brett W.: -88

46. Ally H.: -89

47. Creighton H.: -119

48. Amy L.: -126

49. Scott H. #1: -129

50. Tom B.: -186

51. Larry G. #1: -208

So, there are currently 5 games on schedule for tomorrow – and as far as I know right now, all of them are still on the schedule.  I must admit that I am pretty pessimistic about the rest of the bowl games.  I hope I’m wrong, but as Omicron spreads like wildfire, I feel like more and more teams are going to back out.  Honestly, have you tried to sequester college kids – it’s got to be harder than herding cats.

Anyway, here are the 5:

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl (12PM ESPN)

Vegas Line: Auburn -2

Median Pick: Auburn for 8 points.

Picks for Auburn: 29 (19.34 points average, 561 total points, 30^th)

Picks for Houston: 22 (14.09 points average, 310 total points, 59^th)

Total points wagered: 871 (34^th)

Pick distribution:

This looks about as normal a curve as we are going to see.  You can superimpose a nice bell around this data.  Props to the 3 people that have this game in their Top 10.  That’s going for it.  I like it.

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl (3:15 PM ESPN)

Vegas Line: Louisville -1

Median Pick: Air Force for 2 points.

Picks for Air Force: 28 (15.54 points average, 435 total points, 43^rd)

Picks for Louisville: 23 (18.04 points average, 415 total points, 47^th)

Total points wagered: 850 (35^th)

Pick distribution:

Right next to the previous bowl in terms of points is this game.  Both are near the bottom of the total points wagered.  Again, should out to the 4 people that are leaning heavy on Louisville.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl (6:45 PM ESPN)

Vegas Line: Mississippi State -10

Median Pick: Mississippi State for 33 points.

Picks for Mississippi State: 44 (31.11 points average, 1369 total points, 9^th)

Picks for Texas Tech: 7 (14.71 points average, 103 total points, 80^th)

Total points wagered: 1472 (11^th)

Pick distribution:

If I’m reading things right, this is the Mississippi State has the most points available to players from here on out other than teams in the Final 4 (which can pick up points in 2 games).  The reason for that is because I think the Arizona Bowl featuring Boise State was cancelled.  We’ll get to that when it was supposed to come around, but Boise was the only remaining team with more points wagered on it than Mississippi State.  Unfortunately, it looks like everyone is on board with this pick for about the same number.  Fun fact, Mississippi State for 12 points is the 2^nd most commonly picked combination of team and points.  Alabama for 43 is the most commonly picked (36 times).

San Diego Credit Union Holiday Bowl (8:00 PM Fox)

Vegas Line: NC State -2

Median Pick: UCLA for 3 points.

Picks for NC State: 21 (17.52 points average, 368 total points, 53^rd)

Picks for UCLA: 30 (14.40 points average, 432 total points, 44^th)

Total points wagered: 800 (41^st)

Pick distribution:

If my spreadsheets are right, this is the remaining Bowl game with the least amount of points wagered left.  That is largely due to the fact that I think the Fenway Bowl is cancelled.  It also represents a rare instance where the median pick and the Vegas line don’t align.  Again, that could be because the Vegas line has shifted and everyone’s picks are static after the start of the pool.  Still, I’ve been to this game more than once, and it’s usually a good time, although I’ve never seen a football game at Petco Park.  It was always in Qualcomm Mausoleum when I went.  Thank god that thing was torn down.  What a dump….

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (10:15 PM ESPN)

Vegas Line: Minnesota -5

Median Pick: Minnesota for 22 points.

Picks for Minnesota: 41 (24.27 points average, 995 total points, 15^th)

Picks for West Virginia: 10 (16.30 points average, 163 total points, 74^th)

Total points wagered: 1158 (18^th)

Pick distribution:

I love games like this.  I feel like this is a game that could go a long way towards deciding who wins this thing.  The point spread is only 5 points, which is kind of this strange nether region for point spreads.  It’s not quite a toss up, but I don’t think anyone feels too comfortable calling it a lock.  However, because of the way other games are, people were forced to put a lot of points on it.  It’s also not crazy to think West Virginia might win this game, so if you were going to take a shot, maybe this game would be appealing to you.  It’s intriguing to say the least.  Part of me roots for Minnesota because that’s where the head coach of Western Michigan went after their undefeated season a few years ago.

All right.  It looks like we are in line for a 5/5 day tomorrow.  5 games on the schedule, 5 games going to be played.  We’ll see if that holds up.  If it doesn’t, you can take everything you read here and throw it out the window.

One side benefit of all the cancelled games is that it means I can probably figure out odds earlier.  I need to get down to 15 games left before I can figure those out, and with 2 or 3 fewer games, we get there quicker.  I’ll keep an eye on that.

Good luck everyone!!!!!