After Day 1 - Preview of College football-a-palooza

 Well, this is a pretty great way to start the Bowl Pool.  This could have been the worst day in Bowl history as far as points lost.  Coastal Carolina was supposed to cruise to an easy victory in the Cure Bowl, but then they decided to play the game.  They were down in the 4^th quarter, and only had a 6 point lead in the last seconds, and Northern Illinois had the ball inside the 10 yard line in the closing seconds.  If they would have dropped the last pass or at least got out of bounds, they would have had at least one more shot at the end zone to win the game at the buzzer.  But they didn’t, and so all the people that put a ton of points on Coastal Carolina walk away with something after sweating out a game that, if memory serves, only had 2 punts total.

So, the Bowl pool gods took away points in the early game, but allowed some people back in in the later game.  After only 5 people got points in the first game, we now only have 7 people total that are not on the board after 2 games.  It also makes sense that 4 people managed to go 2/2, which is really good today.  One of those people, as you will see later, had a really good day.

In case anyone was watching, I don’t remember seeing a single commercial for Tailgreeter.  I wound up looking it up.  Apparently, it’s an outfit that sells tickets to tailgaiting events at various stadiums before games.  Strange that they sponsored the game, but didn’t advertise at all, except for their logo on the field.  Maybe it doesn’t cost that much to sponsor one of these games.

Today, the average entry finished the game with 29.5 points, but losing 31.2 points.  As for the scoring, we will start to see the effect of the two different rankings.  The best example of the difference between the two rankings currently is Ally H.  Ally H. went 2/2 today.  AS good as that sounds, she only wound up with 22 total points.  As such, her ranking in the total points rankings is 38^th, which sounds bad.  However, she didn’t lost any points, while almost everyone else did, so her net points (22 – 0 = 22) puts her in 4^th place.  Her sheet right now is really healthy, so she ranks higher in that ranking.  Mike W. has the opposite problem.  He won 42 points (10^th place), but also lost 43 points, for a net of 42-43 = -1 (30^th place).  All things being equal, Ally’s sheet looks better than Mike’s at this point, which is the points of the net rankings.

So, here are the total point rankings:

1. Marc R.: 79 (0)

2. Jay H. #1: 43 (0)

3. Ben S.: 43 (-37)

4. Klei R.: 42 (-36)

5. Michelle L. #2: 42 (-41)

5. Chad L.: 42 (-41)

5. Michelle L. #1: 42 (-41)

5. Adam E.: 42 (-41)

5. Hutch H.: 42 (-41)

10. Mike W.: 42 (-43)

10. Jason S.: 42 (-43)

12. Josiah T. #1: 41 (-32)

13. Mike N.: 41 (-35)

14. Josiah T. #2: 40 (-37)

15. Pete J. #1: 40 (-39)

15. Pete J. #2: 40 (-39)

17. Lee K.: 39 (-23)

18. Scott H. #2: 39 (-26)

19. Matt N.: 39 (-37)

20. Daniel E.: 39 (-38)

21. Dan D.: 38 (-21)

22. Jay H. #2: 38 (-30)

23. Stefan K.: 37 (0)

24. Scott H. #1: 37 (-28)

25. Weston T. (Shane): 37 (-36)

26. Larry G. #2: 36 (-16)

27. Matt M.: 36 (-35)

28. Dylan B.: 36 (-38)

29. Brad R.: 33 (-7)

30. Adam O. #4: 32 (-40)

30. Adam O. #1: 32 (-40)

32. Creighton H.: 28 (-13)

33. Emily T.: 26 (-41)

33. Grant F.: 26 (-41)

35. Becky H.: 25 (-12)

36. Brent S.: 25 (-33)

37. Adam O. #3: 23 (-25)

38. Ally H.: 22 (0)

39. Mark A.: 21 (-37)

40. Adam O. #2: 17 (-40)

41. Ryan W.: 13 (-32)

42. Brian K.: 11 (-26)

43. Brett W.: 10 (-42)

44. Dylan L.: 6 (-21)

45. Doug L.: 0 (-9)

46. Tom B.: 0 (-21)

47. Dustin B.: 0 (-35)

48. Amy L.: 0 (-39)

49. Cam L.: 0 (-41)

50. Larry G. #1: 0 (-43)

51. Damien R.: 0 (-79)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Marc R.: 79

2. Jay H. #1: 43

3. Stefan K.: 37

4. Brad R.: 26

5. Ally H.: 22

6. Larry G. #2: 20

7. Dan D.: 17

8. Lee K.: 16

9. Creighton H.: 15

10. Scott H. #2: 13

10. Becky H.: 13

12. Josiah T. #1: 9

12. Scott H. #1: 9

14. Jay H. #2: 8

15. Ben S.: 6

15. Klei R.: 6

15. Mike N.: 6

18. Josiah T. #2: 3

19. Matt N.: 2

20. Michelle L. #2: 1

20. Chad L.: 1

20. Michelle L. #1: 1

20. Adam E.: 1

20. Hutch H.: 1

20. Pete J. #1: 1

20. Pete J. #2: 1

20. Daniel E.: 1

20. Weston T. (Shane): 1

20. Matt M.: 1

30. Mike W.: -1

30. Jason S.: -1

32. Dylan B.: -2

32. Adam O. #3: -2

34. Adam O. #4: -8

34. Adam O. #1: -8

34. Brent S.: -8

37. Doug L.: -9

38. Emily T.: -15

38. Grant F.: -15

38. Brian K.: -15

38. Dylan L.: -15

42. Mark A.: -16

43. Ryan W.: -19

44. Tom B.: -21

45. Adam O. #2: -23

46. Brett W.: -32

47. Dustin B.: -35

48. Amy L.: -39

49. Cam L.: -41

50. Larry G. #1: -43

51. Damien R.: -79

That’s a really sizeable lead after one day.  Then again, we are on average 7.14% done with the pool, so there’s a lot of time to fade back to the field.  On the flip side, Damien R. had a pretty awful day.  There are 42 more games to go everyone.  Let’s not get too worked up yet.  Everyone is still in this thing.

Tomorrow is probably my least favorite day of this Bowl season.  There are 7 games going off.  That, in itself, is not a bad thing.  The bad thing is that I feel compelled to give a preview of all of these games, and that is going to take a while.  I long for the days when they play only one game a day.  That’s great scheduling.  I remember for a second last year, they proposed to play the March Madness one game at a time at the same stadium.  I absolutely would have loved that.  I especially don’t understand having multiple games starting at roughly the same time.  At least do it sequentially.  When I’m king of the world, that’s how I’m going to do it. 

The first game tomorrow is the Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl.  Here are some particulars about the game:

Vegas Line: Appalachian State -3

Median Pick: Appalachian State for 3 points.

Picks for Appalachian State: 31 (13.68 points average, 424 total points, 46^th)

Picks for Western Kentucky: 20 (10.25 points average, 205 total points, 66th)

Total points wagered: 629 (44^th)

Pick distribution:

You can look at this game one of two ways.  You can think that it’s a game that will differentiate people the pool, since it looks like it’s kind of a toss up regarding points.  Another way you can think of this game is that it is probably the most skippable game of the whole pool.  It has the lowest amount of points wagered on it.  Only 5 games have fewer people putting it in their top 10 (only 3 people did).  I choose to think I’m going to skip most of this game.  I know nothing about either of these teams.  I’m sure it will be a fantastic game played in front of literally 10s of fans in Boca Raton.

Game #2: Cricket Celebration Bowl (Noon on ABC)

Vegas Line: Jackson State -11

Median Pick: Jackson State for 38 points

Picks for Jackson State: 43 (31.53 points average, 1356 total points, 10^th)

Picks for South Carolina State: 8 (18.88 points average, 151 total points, 75th)

Total points wagered: 1507 (8^th)

Pick distribution:

I think they should just name this one the Deion Sanders honorary bowl.  If the camera is off of him for more than 2 minutes at any point during the game, I will be really surprised.  As much as he’s the coach of Jackson State, something tells me he would be totally OK with that much screen time.  I feel like South Carolina State is being treated by the media as the Washington Generals in this game.  Nobody is talking about them at all.  If their coach is any good, they should really be ready to play the spoiler.  Historically, this has been my favorite game of the year for a couple of reasons.  One, it’s usually pretty high scoring and fun to watch.  Two, it’s the bowl game that exclusively features HBCUs, so the crowds are usually really into it.  Three, historically, HBCUs usually have really, really good marching bands if they show them on TV.  Fourth, depending on where you may have looked up gambling lines, you may or may not have found this game featured.  As such, I’m guessing some people are probably flying a little blind on this game.  If I watch a game tomorrow, it will probably be this one – unless it’s a blowout, then it’s elliptical time.

Game #3: PUGB Mobile New Mexico Bowl (2:25 on ESPN)

Vegas Line: Fresno State -12

Median Pick: Fresno State for 38 points

Picks for Fresno State: 46 (33.76 points average, 1553 total points, 2nd)

Picks for UTEP: 5 (9.20 points average, 46 total points, 85th)

Total points wagered: 1599 (4^th)

Pick distribution:

Wow.  Nothing but hate for the Miners.  There’s only one team with fewer points wagered on it than UTEP (more on that later).  Something I’ve noticed is that 6 of the top 10 point spreads are in the first 2 days of the pool.  Actually, only the Boca Raton Bowl has a point spread of less than a TD.  The average point spread this season is a little over 5 points, so this is a pretty significant conglomeration of big spreads early on.  Either that means that the organizers did a good job of finding even pairings, or they got lucky.  I think it’s more like lucky.  Then again, they actually have to play the games.  As the Cure Bowl taught us so far, just because you are a double digit favorite, there’s no guarantee you will win.

Game #4: Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl (3:30 on ABC)

Vegas Line: BYU -7

Median Pick: BYU for 33 points.

Picks for BYU: 48 (30.73 points average, 1475 total points, 4th)

Picks for UAB: 3 (10.33 points average, 31 total points, 86th)

Total points wagered: 1506 (9^th)

Pick distribution:

Remember about a few seconds ago when I send that the UTEP Miners got no respect.  Well, here’s the only team that got even less respect: UAB.  Honestly, I find this one a little confusing.  The line for this game is only 7 points.  There’s another game later that has roughly the same point spread that has 672 fewer points wagered on it.  This seems a little more skew that I would have guessed.  Then again, BYU has a pretty strong football tradition and UAB disbanded their football team a few years ago, so maybe that’s what people are reacting to.  As I mentioned before, I didn’t watch a lot of college football this season, so I have no idea what to make of all the UAB hate.  I do think their mascot is cool.  I have a UAB t-shirt and it has a really cool dragon on it.  Not that that’s a good reason to pick them, I’m just sayin’

Game #5: Lending Tee Bowl (5:45 on ESPN)

Vegas Line: Liberty -9

Median Pick: Liberty for 11 points.

Picks for Liberty: 34 (24.56 points average, 835 total points, 19th)

Picks for Eastern Michigan: 17 (11.71 points average, 199 total points, 68th)

Total points wagered: 1034 (22nd)

Pick distribution:

I don’t have any strong opinions about this game, but my personal opinions about the schools are pretty strong about this one.

First, I’d like to tip my hat to Lending Tree.  They must have got the VIP Bowl package because they avoided the middle man and just flat out named the bowl game after the company.  It’s not the Lending Tree Nonsense Bowl, it’s just the Lending Tree Bowl.  It’s like SuperSizing your order.

Second, my aunt went to Eastern Michigan and once worked in the athletic department there.  Plus, as a graduate of a fellow MAC school, I am inclined to root for MAC schools as it is.  Those are all good reasons to pull for Eastern Michigan and if you want to skip my screed about Liberty University, I suggest moving on to the Game 6 stats now.

For those that have played along in one of my pools, I’m sure it will come as no shock to you that I think that Liberty is a money-laundering operation masquerading as a college.  Recently, they made the news for their lax reaction to campus rapes.  A lot of schools have this problem, but Liberty is particularly terrible.  Turns out women would go to a party, get date raped, report it to the school and the school would take disciplinary action against the woman because the party violated their honor code.  That’s just the latest.  I’d suggest putting “Jerry Falwell Jr. Scandal” into the Google machine for some more horrible reading about this place.  But, they qualify for a bowl game so here we are.  Rant over….

Go Eagles…  Damn it.  Both teams are the Eagles.  You know who I’m pulling for.

Game #6: Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (7:30 on ABC)

Vegas Line: Oregon State -7.5

Median Pick: Oregon State for 8 points.

Picks for Oregon State: 34 (18.76 points average, 638 total points, 26th)

Picks for Utah State: 17 (11.53 points average, 196 total points, 70th)

Total points wagered: 834 (36th)

Pick distribution:

OK, look at the above graph and look at the graph for the Independence Bowl.  Why are these so different?  The point spread for both of these games is pretty much the same, but one is considerably more skew than the other.  It’s hard to see why.  I know nothing about wither of these teams, but they are both are in the West, so maybe their fan bases will show up for this one.  I’d consider it just to see the new stadium in Inglewood.

Also, I think this is another prize winner in Bowl pool naming.  I think this may be the first year for the LA Bowl, but the fact that it looks like it’s sponsored by one guy is pretty funny to me.  I get that it’s promoting his late night talk show, but I’d love to see some rando guy sponsor a game someday.  Like the Bill Smith Bowl, and no one knows who Bill Smith is.  Then he produces TV commercials where he just talks about himself without actually selling a product.  It would be an absurdist art masterpiece.

Game #7: R & L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (9:15 ESPN)

Vegas Line: Louisiana -5

Median Pick: Louisiana for 14 points.

Picks for Louisiana: 29 (25.45 points average, 738 total points, 21st)

Picks for Marshall: 22 (11.41 points average, 251 total points, 63rd)

Total points wagered: 989 (26th)

Pick distribution:

What a strange distribution.  It’s like the people that picked this game had the same ideas about the teams, but took different teams.  It’s almost bimodal.  Weird.  Something also strange about this game is that it’s starting really late for a game being played in the Central Time Zone.  Then again, I’m guessing people don’t really go to bed early in New Orleans on a Saturday night.

I like this game as the game of the cool mascots.  I really like the Rajin Cajuns and Thundering Herd.  Those are some primo mascots.  I know nothing about these teams, and my guess is that I’ll watch a lot of this game, mostly so I can finish the scoring for the day and go to bed.  Let’s hope for a game with only 10-15 passes and a lot of running clock.  That’s not going to happen, but I can hope at least.

All right, that’s all the games for tomorrow.  I feel like there will be a lot of movement in the standings and that if you go 5/7, you’ll move up.  I’m hoping for 2-3 upsets, especially Eastern Michigan over Liberty.

Good luck everyone!!!!!