Bowl Pool Update - Watch the zombie bowls for fun edition.

 If you survived the day, congratulations!  You are one of just 20 entries still alive to win something.  There are at least 9 people that have greater than a 1/10 shot at winning one of the three payouts.  We also didn’t have any further cancellations, so it was a pretty good day for football all around.  There were some pretty decent crowds on hand, so it almost made me forget about Omicron for a little while, and that’s all I can ask.  I can also ask that no one that went to those games gets infected as well, so there’s 2 things I can ask for.

For those of you that were curious how I was doing so well in the earlier standings, rest assured I am in the middle of a 1/10 and 0/7 slump that has seen me 2^nd in the probabilities of winning to completely out of getting first.  The Bowl pool gods have been very unkind to me over the last few days.

Becky was threatening to run away with the pool for a few games today, but the Las Vegas Bowl brought her slightly back to the field.  She’s still the odds on favorite to win, having more than twice the chance of the person with the second best odds.

I mentioned this fun fact before, but it’s worth noting that the current leader in points (Scott H. #2) can’t win, and honestly only has the 12^th best chance to win anything.  That’s kind of brutal.  Also, Daniel E., who currently sits in 9^th in points is mathematically eliminated from any place.

Other anomalies:

Adam E. is sitting in 47^th, but is still alive for 3^rd place compliments of being the only person to pick Cincinnati to win the National Championship.  I’m sure he’ll need more help than just that to move up, but that would certainly help a lot.

Brent S. is sitting in 35^th in points, but is alive for all 3 spots because he backloaded all of his points.  As of right now, he still has almost 1/3 of his points still available.  He’s still got a long way to go, but at least he’s not out yet.

Here are the points rankings:

Total

1. Scott H. #2: 434 (-406)

2. Hutch H.: 429 (-369)

3. Matt N.: 410 (-351)

4. Mark A.: 405 (-364)

5. Chad L.: 404 (-366)

6. Cam L.: 399 (-342)

7. Becky H.: 398 (-308)

8. Brian K.: 388 (-371)

9. Daniel E.: 388 (-408)

10. Michelle L. #1: 378 (-438)

11. Pete J. #2: 372 (-434)

12. Mike N.: 367 (-440)

13. Klei R.: 362 (-427)

14. Adam O. #3: 359 (-424)

15. Larry G. #2: 357 (-485)

16. Mike W.: 352 (-391)

17. Jason S.: 350 (-395)

18. Dylan L.: 343 (-416)

19. Adam O. #2: 338 (-445)

20. Marc R.: 337 (-337)

21. Josiah T. #2: 336 (-437)

22. Ryan W.: 334 (-423)

23. Adam O. #1: 334 (-449)

23. Adam O. #4: 334 (-449)

25. Josiah T. #1: 334 (-457)

26. Michelle L. #2: 334 (-463)

27. Jay H. #2: 331 (-434)

28. Brad R.: 330 (-391)

29. Ben S.: 328 (-478)

30. Dan D.: 325 (-393)

31. Dylan B.: 325 (-458)

32. Amy L.: 321 (-461)

33. Stefan K.: 317 (-394)

34. Pete J. #1: 317 (-489)

35. Brent S.: 296 (-354)

36. Scott H. #1: 291 (-477)

37. Damien R.: 286 (-480)

38. Emily T.: 280 (-534)

39. Grant F.: 275 (-539)

40. Ally H.: 274 (-447)

41. Matt M.: 270 (-519)

42. Brett W.: 268 (-476)

43. Larry G. #1: 266 (-559)

44. Weston T. (Shane): 264 (-557)

45. Dustin B.: 261 (-431)

46. Lee K.: 261 (-470)

47. Adam E.: 236 (-491)

48. Jay H. #1: 209 (-492)

49. Tom B.: 201 (-490)

50. Creighton H.: 199 (-536)

51. Doug L.: 186 (-496)

…and here is the matrix:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Becky H.	34.38%	11.13%	6.15%
Matt N.	12.89%	14.55%	10.16%
Mark A.	16.70%	10.25%	8.50%
Hutch H.	6.45%	13.67%	12.89%
Cam L.	6.54%	10.25%	15.33%
Chad L.	8.20%	8.01%	8.98%
Marc R.	7.42%	7.03%	4.98%
Brian K.	1.37%	6.84%	7.03%
Brad R.	2.34%	6.25%	2.73%
Pete J. #2	0.20%	2.93%	5.37%
Stefan K.	1.46%	2.15%	4.20%
Scott H. #2	Pitt	1.46%	4.30%
Dan D.	1.17%	1.56%	1.86%
Brent S.	0.68%	1.46%	2.44%
Mike W.	0.20%	1.46%	2.44%
Jason S.	Az State	0.20%	1.46%
Klei R.	Az State	0.59%	0.39%
Michelle L. #1	Tennessee	Pitt	0.39%
Ryan W.	Pitt	0.20%	0.10%
Adam E.	Az State	Az State	0.29%
Daniel E.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Az State
Mike N.	Initial	N. Car	Tennessee
Adam O. #3	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Larry G. #2	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dylan L.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam O. #2	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Josiah T. #2	Initial	Initial	Pitt
Adam O. #1	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Adam O. #4	Initial	Tennessee	Pitt
Josiah T. #1	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Michelle L. #2	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Jay H. #2	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Ben S.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee
Dylan B.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Pitt
Amy L.	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Pete J. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Scott H. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Damien R.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Emily T.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Grant F.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Ally H.	Pitt	Az State	Az State
Matt M.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Brett W.	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Larry G. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Weston T. (Shane)	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dustin B.	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Lee K.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Jay H. #1	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Tom B.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Creighton H.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Doug L.	Initial	Initial	Initial

So, tomorrow is a little strange.  There are a bunch of games tomorrow, but only two of them that will count in the pool.  A few posts ago, I mentioned that unless the game was going to be played with its originally listed participants, it wasn’t going to count.  That’s what we have in the Sun Bowl and the Gator Bowl.  The Sun Bowl now features Central Michigan, who was supposed to play in the Arizona Bowl, which is now cancelled.  The Gator Bowl now features Rutgers, who wasn’t supposed to play anywhere.  Since no one actually picked in those circumstances, those games will not count.  Don’t worry, all of that is baked into the probabilities I’ve calculated.  You can just sit back enjoy those games.  They won’t change the odds one bit.

But, the other two games are really important.  They are the National Semi-Final Games.  The thing about these games is that they effect not just the points you can get in this game, but they can effect the points you get in the Championship as well.  For instance, if you have Alabama for 43 in this game, you aren’t just losing 43 points if they lose, you are losing 43 + 35 = 78 points, since they could no longer win the Championship if they lose this first game.  It’s a pretty big deal, although maybe less so for the first game than for the second.

Here are the eliminations for the Cotton Bowl:

If Alabama Wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 3^rd place contention.

Klei R. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Stefan K. is eliminated from 1^st, 2^nd & 3^rd place consideration.

 

If Cincinnati Wins:

Jason S. is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 1^st place consideration.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 1^st place consideration.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

Rank for 1st	Pick	Points
1.: Becky H. (34.375%)	Alabama	41
2.: Mark A. (16.6992%)	Alabama	28
3.: Matt N. (12.8906%)	Alabama	43
4.: Chad L. (8.2031%)	Alabama	43
5.: Marc R. (7.4218%)	Alabama	39
6.: Cam L. (6.5429%)	Alabama	43
7.: Hutch H. (6.4453%)	Alabama	43
8.: Brad R. (2.3437%)	Alabama	42
9.: Stefan K. (1.4648%)	Cincinnati	28
10.: Brian K. (1.3671%)	Alabama	38
11.: Dan D. (1.1718%)	Alabama	41
12.: Brent S. (0.6835%)	Alabama	43
13.: Mike W. (0.1953%)	Alabama	36
13.: Pete J. #2 (0.1953%)	Alabama	43

Fun fact, Becky H.’s probability of getting first goes down if Alabama wins because she has Michigan winning the Championship.  If Alabama wins, that keeps more people alive that have Alabama winning it all, so her chances decrease slightly, despite the 41 points.  Also props to Stefan K. for going 28 on Cincy.  That’s really going for it.  Also, since I’m probably going to get knocked out tomorrow, I am rooting for my wife, Michelle L and my Dad, Brad R.  Go family!!!!

Good luck!!!!!