Bowl Pool - After Bahamas Bowl

 Hello again everyone.  It’s Bowl season again.  For some, the culmination of a season-long football extravaganza.  For others, like me, a nice primer in preparation for the annual March Madness tournament in a few months.  Unfortunately for me, I barely watched any actual games this season, so my knowledge about a lot of the specific players is a little limited, but I didn’t manage to watch PTI almost every day and more than a few episodes of SportsCenter, so I know some of the main story lines.

Everyone that is going to get in the pool is in the pool.  There is an outside chance that I may add a handful of entries late, but I tend to not like to do that.  I know there are a small handful of people that have some points distributions that need to be fixed.  There may be some people that have sent me entries that my spam catcher filtered out (I hope there are none like that, but you never know).  I will list the entries I have a little later, so if you don’t see your name there and you think it should be, let me know.

So, compliments of some late arrivals, we wound up with 51 entries this year.  That’s about 15 off from the most I’ve ever had from 2 years ago, but roughly an infinity % increase from last year, when I had none.  Since we got over the 50 entry threshold, we will be paying out 3 spots.  The breakdown will be 70% for 1st, 20% for 2nd and 10% for 3rd ($178.50, $51.00 & $25.50 respectively)

This year, instead of just the trend of star players sitting out the bowl games, we will all kind of be at the mercy of the COVID-gods.  I’m really crossing my fingers that no games get cancelled.  Given the amount of money even the lowliest of these bowls generates, I’m guessing that none of them will actually get cancelled, but it’s entirely possible for teams to be dramatically affected by positive tests.  That’s an issue that everyone has to deal with.  It’s just another level of randomness we have to all deal with.

For those that don’t know, I openly root for outcomes on this blog, and by “outcomes”, I mostly mean upsets.  I love upsets.  The one guiding principle I have for these pools is that I absolutely hate entries that are strictly by the seeds or based entirely on the point spreads.  What I want to see is people take some chances and take some upsets, and then get rewarded if those picks come true.  I also happen to think that you can’t really win any pool just by picking chalk the entire time.  I think that will get you close, but not actually win.

With that said, we are already one game in and we may have already our biggest upset of the entire pool.  Middle Tennessee State went off in the Bahamas Bowl as a 10 point underdog.  That was the 4th biggest point spread of the entire season.  The median pick for this game was Toledo for 36 points.  It was the game with the 3rd most points wagered on it.  Toledo was the team that had the 3rd most points wagered on it: more than Georgia or Michigan who have two potential sources for gathering points.  On the flip side, Middle Tennessee only had 5 people pick them.  Only 2 teams were picked less often.  They had the 79th most points wagered on them, and most of those came from 3 people, who are going to feel very, very good about themselves for a while.  Only 6.49% of all the points wagered on this game were won.  We almost certainly will not see that much carnage again in the pool – mostly because it can’t.  There’s not many games that were that lopsidedly picked.

So, that brings me to the rankings.  I’ll send out 2 sets of rankings for the time being.  Initially, these will look to be essentially the same, but they aren’t.  The first is based on points won.  If two people have won the same number of points, the tiebreaker is how many points they have lost.  This is actually the most important ranking to be on top of since the pool is decided by who has the most points.  However, people can skew this ranking if the front load or back load their points.  For example, people have, in the past, done the 43-1 distribution.  That allows you to rack up a lot of points really early and put you near the top of the rankings.  This, however, doesn’t really indicate your relative pick health, which leads to the second set of rankings.

The second set of rankings are based on net points.  This the total points you have won minus the number of points you have lost.  So, if you took Game 1 for 42 points and Game 2 for 43, lost Game 1, but won Game 2, you will probably be high on the Total points rankings with 43, but much, much lower in the net points rankings because you have 43-42 = 1 point.  Your sheet is not very healthy, since your ceiling for points is much lower.

So, here’s the total points rankings:

1. Scott H. #1: 37 (0)

2. Marc R.: 36 (0)

3. Stefan K.: 21 (0)

4. Ally H.: 5 (0)

4. Jay H. #1: 5 (0)

6. Brad R.: 0 (-7)

6. Doug L.: 0 (-7)

8. Tom B.: 0 (-10)

9. Becky H.: 0 (-12)

10. Creighton H.: 0 (-13)

11. Larry G. #2: 0 (-16)

12. Dan D.: 0 (-21)

12. Dylan L.: 0 (-21)

14. Lee K.: 0 (-23)

15. Adam O. #3: 0 (-25)

16. Brian K.: 0 (-26)

16. Scott H. #2: 0 (-26)

18. Dustin B.: 0 (-28)

19. Jay H. #2: 0 (-30)

20. Josiah T. #1: 0 (-32)

20. Ryan W.: 0 (-32)

22. Brent S.: 0 (-33)

23. Matt M.: 0 (-35)

23. Mike N.: 0 (-35)

25. Klei R.: 0 (-36)

25. Weston T. (Shane): 0 (-36)

27. Matt N.: 0 (-37)

27. Josiah T. #2: 0 (-37)

27. Ben S.: 0 (-37)

27. Mark A.: 0 (-37)

31. Amy L.: 0 (-38)

31. Daniel E.: 0 (-38)

31. Dylan B.: 0 (-38)

34. Larry G. #1: 0 (-39)

34. Pete J. #2: 0 (-39)

34. Pete J. #1: 0 (-39)

37. Adam O. #2: 0 (-40)

37. Adam O. #4: 0 (-40)

37. Cam L.: 0 (-40)

37. Damien R.: 0 (-40)

37. Adam O. #1: 0 (-40)

42. Michelle L. #2: 0 (-41)

42. Adam E.: 0 (-41)

42. Chad L.: 0 (-41)

42. Michelle L. #1: 0 (-41)

42. Emily T.: 0 (-41)

42. Grant F.: 0 (-41)

42. Hutch H.: 0 (-41)

49. Brett W.: 0 (-42)

50. Mike W.: 0 (-43)

50. Jason S.: 0 (-43)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Scott H. #1: 37

2. Marc R.: 36

3. Stefan K.: 21

4. Ally H.: 5

4. Jay H. #1: 5

6. Brad R.: -7

6. Doug L.: -7

8. Tom B.: -10

9. Becky H.: -12

10. Creighton H.: -13

11. Larry G. #2: -16

12. Dan D.: -21

12. Dylan L.: -21

14. Lee K.: -23

15. Adam O. #3: -25

16. Brian K.: -26

16. Scott H. #2: -26

18. Dustin B.: -28

19. Jay H. #2: -30

20. Josiah T. #1: -32

20. Ryan W.: -32

22. Brent S.: -33

23. Matt M.: -35

23. Mike N.: -35

25. Klei R.: -36

25. Weston T. (Shane): -36

27. Matt N.: -37

27. Josiah T. #2: -37

27. Ben S.: -37

27. Mark A.: -37

31. Amy L.: -38

31. Daniel E.: -38

31. Dylan B.: -38

34. Larry G. #1: -39

34. Pete J. #2: -39

34. Pete J. #1: -39

37. Adam O. #2: -40

37. Adam O. #4: -40

37. Cam L.: -40

37. Damien R.: -40

37. Adam O. #1: -40

42. Michelle L. #2: -41

42. Adam E.: -41

42. Chad L.: -41

42. Michelle L. #1: -41

42. Emily T.: -41

42. Grant F.: -41

42. Hutch H.: -41

49. Brett W.: -42

50. Mike W.: -43

50. Jason S.: -43

Ouch.  That first game was rough.  31 people had the Bahamas Bowl in their Top 10.  That’s a tough way to start.  Luckily for everyone, even if you too Toledo for 43 points (as 2 people did), that’s only a little over 5% of the total possible points.  There are still a ton of points left to get.  Still, if you are Scott H. or Marc R., you’ve got to be feeling pretty smart.  Actually, if you managed to only lose < 10 points on this game, you are looking very good one game in.

But wait, there is another game today!!!!

There is the Cure Bowl, or as it is less commonly known: The Tailgreeter Cure Bowl.  I have no earthly idea what Tailgreeter is, although if I actually watch this game, I’m sure I’ll be bombarded with no less than 756,928 commercials for it.  Now knowing anything, I can’t really come up with any possibility that’s PG-rated.  Best case is whatever it actually is.  Second best case is maybe a portal to the furry community (do NOT look this up).  Based on the pick spread, that may be the most interesting thing that happens in the course of thr 3 hours this game goes on.

This game is ranked 10th most for points.  Like the first game, the picks are heavily lopsided.  43 people are taking Coastal Carolina and 8 are taking Northern Illinois.  The most recent point spread has the Chanticleers favored by 11 or 12 depending on where you go.  Fun fact, a chanticleer is a type of rooster.  It is a admittedly strange mascot.  The reason they have it is because they used to be part of the University of South Carolina college system, which are nicknamed the Gamecocks.  When they spun off to be independent, they kept a similar mascot.  I like it.  I’m a big fan of oddball mascots.  As for Northern Illinois, they are the Huskies, which they have in common with probably 25 other schools.  They are a MAC school, which makes me naturally disposed to root for them – but not today.  I hope Coastal beats them so bad they question their desire to play organized sports again in the future.

Here’s the pick distribution:

So, most people are with me on this one.  Much respect to Damien R. and Scott H. #1 for going against the grain on this one.  They are the two outliers on the graph for Northern Illinois.  Honestly, if Northern Illinois, that would be a huge lead for Scott H. #1, so let’s all hope that doesn’t happen.  It’ll be a real uphill fight for the rest of the season if we lose this one.

More updates after the game.  There are 7 games tomorrow, and I’ll have a preview of all of them tonight.

Good luck everyone!!!!