Bowl Pool - After winter solstice

 Hello again.  I’d say it was moving day today, but there’s still about 2/3 of the pool left, so any moves up or down are going to be temporary at best.  Still, it’s worth noting them as we go.

Both games today seemed a little like coin flips based on the point spreads, and the distribution of correct picks today kind of reflects that.  The average sheet today got 1.2 games right out of 2.  As I mentioned yesterday, neither of these games had a lot of points wagered on them, so it should come as no surprise that the average points won today was 19.4 and the average lost today was 11.2, so more people came out ahead today than slipped back on net points.  That’s probably a good thing after the first few days, which had upsets galore.

Not all 2-0 picks are the same.  We had two big winners today.  Damien R. and Ryan W. both finished with +58 points for the day, although they did it in different ways.  Ryan went very heavy on Wyoming (+40 points), and Damien went heavier on San Diego State (+35).  The bad news for them is that today’s good showing only gets them back to the middle of the pack.  They are going to have to continue this hot streak if they want to make it to the upper echelons of the pool.  But, you have to start somewhere and today was as good as either of them could have hoped for.

In another fun aside, we have a clear leader in the pool in number of games picked correctly.  Our old friend Doug L. is the only person to pick as many as 9 games right so far out of 12.  I only keep bringing this up because despite having picked more games correct than anyone else, Doug L. is still sitting next to last in points.  It’s such an outlier.  If it seems like I’m a little fixated on it, I am.  It’s so strange to see.  There’s typically a very high correlation between the # of games you pick right and the amount of points you have.  I think most years the points are almost irrelevant, since the person with the most points is also the person who got the most games correct.  However, right now, Doug L. is really testing the limits of that theory.  I mean, if he wins at this point, he almost certainly will have picked more games correctly than anybody, but that still would require him to do very well from here on out.  There’s no saying he can’t. He’s done it so far.  One thing I ill guess is that with most of his points coming later, he may be mathematically alive for a while, since he can make up so much ground.  That’s a plus, I guess.  Still.  Very strange to see.

So, the rankings were pretty tight yesterday, and with not a ton of points being wagered on today’s games, there wasn’t a ton of movement.  It turns out that there are ties at the top of both sets of standings, although the ties are between two different sets of people.  I am tied with Josiah T. #1 in points (I’m ahead via tiebreaker), and I am tied with Jason S. in net points. Everyone in the top 9 are within one game of taking over the lead.  Still 2/3 of the pool is left, so plenty of time to make up ground, but you probably need to have some things go your way if you are further down the table to get you in position for later.

Here are the points rankings:

1. Klei R.: 227 (-108)

2. Josiah T. #1: 227 (-148)

3. Hutch H.: 219 (-111)

4. Daniel E.: 211 (-127)

5. Larry G. #2: 200 (-155)

6. Josiah T. #2: 197 (-147)

7. Scott H. #2: 196 (-172)

8. Ben S.: 194 (-84)

9. Jason S.: 192 (-73)

10. Jay H. #2: 181 (-160)

11. Chad L.: 181 (-162)

12. Mike W.: 180 (-127)

13. Matt N.: 179 (-118)

14. Michelle L. #1: 177 (-176)

15. Adam E.: 175 (-142)

16. Pete J. #2: 173 (-168)

17. Becky H.: 167 (-71)

18. Marc R.: 162 (-81)

19. Mike N.: 160 (-100)

20. Damien R.: 158 (-169)

21. Pete J. #1: 157 (-184)

22. Dylan B.: 149 (-145)

23. Adam O. #3: 148 (-119)

24. Creighton H.: 147 (-107)

25. Adam O. #1: 147 (-144)

26. Michelle L. #2: 147 (-178)

27. Stefan K.: 145 (-76)

28. Brad R.: 144 (-82)

29. Weston T. (Shane): 144 (-130)

30. Mark A.: 141 (-164)

31. Adam O. #4: 139 (-144)

32. Dylan L.: 138 (-155)

33. Scott H. #1: 134 (-177)

34. Adam O. #2: 132 (-144)

35. Dan D.: 131 (-53)

36. Brett W.: 128 (-94)

37. Ryan W.: 126 (-99)

38. Cam L.: 126 (-118)

39. Brent S.: 125 (-117)

40. Grant F.: 119 (-163)

40. Emily T.: 119 (-163)

42. Brian K.: 118 (-93)

43. Dustin B.: 114 (-106)

44. Ally H.: 111 (-115)

45. Lee K.: 110 (-118)

46. Jay H. #1: 108 (-113)

47. Amy L.: 99 (-183)

48. Matt M.: 84 (-110)

49. Larry G. #1: 75 (-249)

50. Doug L.: 74 (-14)

51. Tom B.: 42 (-157)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Klei R.: 119

1. Jason S.: 119

3. Ben S.: 110

4. Hutch H.: 108

5. Becky H.: 96

6. Daniel E.: 84

7. Marc R.: 81

8. Josiah T. #1: 79

9. Dan D.: 78

10. Stefan K.: 69

11. Brad R.: 62

12. Matt N.: 61

13. Mike N.: 60

13. Doug L.: 60

15. Mike W.: 53

16. Josiah T. #2: 50

17. Larry G. #2: 45

18. Creighton H.: 40

19. Brett W.: 34

20. Adam E.: 33

21. Adam O. #3: 29

22. Ryan W.: 27

23. Brian K.: 25

24. Scott H. #2: 24

25. Jay H. #2: 21

26. Chad L.: 19

27. Weston T. (Shane): 14

28. Cam L.: 8

28. Brent S.: 8

28. Dustin B.: 8

31. Pete J. #2: 5

32. Dylan B.: 4

33. Adam O. #1: 3

34. Michelle L. #1: 1

35. Ally H.: -4

36. Adam O. #4: -5

36. Jay H. #1: -5

38. Lee K.: -8

39. Damien R.: -11

40. Adam O. #2: -12

41. Dylan L.: -17

42. Mark A.: -23

43. Matt M.: -26

44. Pete J. #1: -27

45. Michelle L. #2: -31

46. Scott H. #1: -43

47. Grant F.: -44

47. Emily T.: -44

49. Amy L.: -84

50. Tom B.: -115

51. Larry G. #1: -174

As usual, there is another game tomorrow.  Here’s the details of that game:

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl (8:00 on ESPN)

Vegas Line: Army -6.5

Median Pick: Army for 14 points.

Picks for Army: 35 (21.09 points average, 738 total points, 21^st)

Picks for Missouri: 16 (12.38 points average, 198 total points, 69th)

Total points wagered: 936 (28^th)

Pick distribution:

It kind of seems wrong to me to pick against Army in something called “The Armed Forces Bowl”.  I mean, when I think of the United States armed forces, I kind of think of the army.  I certainly don’t think of anything having to do with Missouri.  At least they did a good job of picking one of the teams for this game.  It must be hard for Missouri.  Who really wants to root against Army?  It doesn’t seem quite right on some level.  Anyway, only 4 people have this as a top 10 game, and they all picked Army.

Enjoy the game.  I’ll be back tomorrow.

PS – I finally was able to get a COVID test, and it came back negative.  I must just have a really bad cold.  So, more bed rest, fluids and probably TV tomorrow for me.