Bowl Pool update - After first semifinal

 As expected, Alabama killed Cincinnati, and that knocked out another 3 entries from getting anything.  We are down to just 17.  It also tightened up the overall probabilities.  Becky H. was >50% to win something.  Now, she’s down to 46.29% overall, with Hutch H. and Cam L. now >40%.  I think the next game will be a big make or break game for a lot of people, but we shall see.

Here are the points standings:

Total

1. Scott H. #2: 477 (-406)

2. Hutch H.: 472 (-369)

3. Matt N.: 453 (-351)

4. Chad L.: 447 (-366)

5. Cam L.: 442 (-342)

6. Becky H.: 439 (-308)

7. Mark A.: 433 (-364)

8. Brian K.: 426 (-371)

9. Daniel E.: 424 (-408)

10. Michelle L. #1: 421 (-438)

11. Pete J. #2: 415 (-434)

12. Mike N.: 410 (-440)

13. Adam O. #3: 402 (-424)

14. Larry G. #2: 400 (-485)

15. Mike W.: 388 (-391)

16. Jason S.: 387 (-395)

17. Dylan L.: 386 (-416)

18. Adam O. #2: 381 (-445)

19. Josiah T. #2: 379 (-437)

20. Ryan W.: 377 (-423)

21. Adam O. #1: 377 (-449)

21. Adam O. #4: 377 (-449)

23. Josiah T. #1: 377 (-457)

24. Michelle L. #2: 377 (-463)

25. Marc R.: 376 (-337)

26. Klei R.: 374 (-427)

27. Jay H. #2: 374 (-434)

28. Brad R.: 372 (-391)

29. Dylan B.: 368 (-458)

30. Ben S.: 367 (-478)

31. Dan D.: 366 (-393)

32. Amy L.: 364 (-461)

33. Pete J. #1: 360 (-489)

34. Brent S.: 339 (-354)

35. Scott H. #1: 334 (-477)

36. Damien R.: 328 (-480)

37. Emily T.: 323 (-534)

38. Grant F.: 318 (-539)

39. Stefan K.: 317 (-422)

40. Ally H.: 317 (-447)

41. Matt M.: 313 (-519)

42. Brett W.: 311 (-476)

43. Larry G. #1: 309 (-559)

44. Weston T. (Shane): 307 (-557)

45. Dustin B.: 304 (-431)

46. Lee K.: 304 (-470)

47. Jay H. #1: 251 (-492)

48. Tom B.: 244 (-490)

49. Creighton H.: 242 (-536)

50. Adam E.: 236 (-507)

51. Doug L.: 229 (-496)

…and the Matrix:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Becky H.	29.30%	9.77%	7.23%
Hutch H.	10.55%	16.21%	14.65%
Cam L.	10.35%	12.70%	17.97%
Mark A.	14.45%	10.16%	7.42%
Matt N.	11.91%	12.50%	7.23%
Chad L.	7.62%	8.01%	7.62%
Marc R.	8.79%	6.84%	5.86%
Brian K.	2.34%	5.86%	9.96%
Scott H. #2	Pitt	2.93%	7.42%
Brad R.	1.95%	5.66%	2.54%
Pete J. #2	0.39%	4.10%	4.30%
Brent S.	0.78%	1.56%	2.34%
Mike W.	0.39%	1.76%	2.15%
Dan D.	1.17%	1.17%	1.37%
Jason S.	Az State	0.39%	1.37%
Ryan W.	Pitt	0.39%	0.20%
Michelle L. #1	Tennessee	Pitt	0.39%
Daniel E.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Az State
Mike N.	Initial	N. Car	Tennessee
Adam O. #3	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Larry G. #2	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dylan L.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam O. #2	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Josiah T. #2	Initial	Initial	Pitt
Adam O. #1	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Adam O. #4	Initial	Tennessee	Pitt
Josiah T. #1	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Michelle L. #2	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Klei R.	Az State	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Jay H. #2	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Dylan B.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Pitt
Ben S.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee
Amy L.	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Pete J. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Scott H. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Damien R.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Emily T.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Grant F.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Stefan K.	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Ally H.	Pitt	Az State	Az State
Matt M.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Brett W.	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Larry G. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Weston T. (Shane)	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dustin B.	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Lee K.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Jay H. #1	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Tom B.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Creighton H.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam E.	Az State	Az State	Cincinnati
Doug L.	Initial	Initial	Initial

Here are the eliminations for the Orange Bowl:

If Michigan Wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 1^st & 2^nd place contention.

Chad L. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Dan D. is eliminated from 1^st & 2^nd place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

 

If Georgia Wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 1^st, 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 3^rd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 1^st, 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

 

Rank for 1st	Pick	Points
1.: Becky H. (29.2968%)	Michigan	29
2.: Mark A. (14.4531%)	Georgia	19
3.: Matt N. (11.914%)	Georgia	36
4.: Hutch H. (10.5468%)	Georgia	29
5.: Cam L. (10.3515%)	Georgia	31
6.: Marc R. (8.789%)	Georgia	35
7.: Chad L. (7.6171%)	Georgia	33
8.: Brian K. (2.3437%)	Georgia	2
9.: Brad R. (1.9531%)	Michigan	30
10.: Dan D. (1.1718%)	Georgia	28
11.: Brent S. (0.7812%)	Georgia	29
12.: Mike W. (0.3906%)	Michigan	7
12.: Pete J. #2 (0.3906%)	Michigan	10

So, it looks like I’m rooting for Michigan in this game for a few reasons.  One, I’m from Michigan.  Two, I went to Georgia Tech for a little while, and the fight song there has the line “To Hell With Georgia!” in it in reference to the University of Georgia.  Three, both of my remaining family members will be knocked out if Michigan loses.  Any of the three would be reason enough to root for Michigan, but all three makes for pretty powerful motivation.

Good luck to everyone – except for Georgia.  To hell with them.