Dec 31 - Final Probabilities and early 1/1 eliminations.

That was an exciting game.  If you like college football, you probably should have watched the Chik-fil-A Bowl tonight.  It was pretty much everything that people like about college football.  Personally, I don't like it when the announcers God a player up as much as they do to Johnny Manziel, but the game was really good, and he did make some amazing plays.  It also resulted in a blood bath of sorts in regards to the pool.  We now have 39 sheets still alive for at least one of the three payouts.

With no upsets today, and for tons of points on the line, it's not a surprise that we averaged 66.44 points a sheet on the positive side today with only a loss of 13.02 points on average.  We averaged 3.13 out of 4 games correct today, so if you didn't get a lot of points today, you were definitely losing ground to the field.  Speaking of which the top 5 point gainers today were:

1. Damien R. #2 (112 points)

2. Michelle L. #1 (108 points)

3. Hutch H. #1 (106 points)

3. Hutch H. #2 (106 points)

5. Mike L. #1 (102 points)

5. Mike L. #2 (102 points)

5. Jeff W. (102 points)

It was a big move day for Damien R. #2.  He started the day with a 4.75% chance of winning, and finished the day with a 17.22% chance, taking advantage of the Rice pick by Carl B. to take over the top spot in the 1st place rankings.  Here they are:

1.: Damien R. #2 (17.22%)

2.: Adam E. (8.789%)

3.: Brent E. #1 (8.4594%)

4.: Roth W. #2 (6.4046%)

5.: Klei R. #2 (6.2988%)

6.: Erica A. (5.8675%)

7.: Chris L. #2 (5.1757%)

8.: Kansas C. (4.4148%)

9.: Carl B. (4.2195%)

10.: Brent E. #3 (3.833%)

11.: Jay H. #3 (3.7109%)

12.: Brent S. #1 (3.1453%)

13.: Jeff W. (3.1087%)

14.: Roth W. #1 (3.0273%)

15.: Larry G. #3 (2.8198%)

16.: Bruce G. (2.7913%)

17.: Michelle L. #1 (2.5838%)

18.: Daryl J. (1.7374%)

19.: Abel R. (1.3305%)

20.: James G. #2 (1.2817%)

21.: Jim W. (1.0864%)

22.: CJ (0.8666%)

23.: Marc R. #1 (0.6469%)

24.: Jay H. #1 (0.3784%)

25.: Chris L. #1 (0.3417%)

26.: Steve D. (0.2685%)

27.: Brent E. #2 (0.1586%)

28.: Huki Julie (0.0244%)

29.: Kevin W. (0.0081%)

... and the 2nd place rankings:

1.: Damien R. #2 (10.8011%)

2.: Kansas C. (8.8378%)

3.: Roth W. #2 (6.7342%)

4.: Roth W. #1 (6.6324%)

5.: Klei R. #2 (6.3842%)

6.: Adam E. (5.6538%)

7.: Carl B. (5.5826%)

8.: Erica A. (5.5562%)

9.: Chris L. #2 (4.8787%)

10.: Brent S. #1 (4.8767%)

11.: Larry G. #3 (4.8197%)

12.: Michelle L. #1 (4.1931%)

13.: Brent E. #1 (4.1503%)

14.: Bruce G. (2.3844%)

15.: Jeff W. (2.1504%)

16.: Jim W. (2.1321%)

17.: Jay H. #3 (2.1321%)

18.: Brent E. #3 (2.0792%)

19.: Abel R. (1.831%)

20.: Chris L. #1 (1.7415%)

21.: CJ (1.3081%)

22.: Marc R. #1 (0.9277%)

23.: James G. #2 (0.8056%)

24.: Daryl J. (0.7568%)

25.: Brent E. #2 (0.6713%)

26.: Jay H. #1 (0.5615%)

27.: Marc R. #3 (0.4394%)

28.: Bosun Ava (0.2441%)

28.: Scott Has. (0.2441%)

30.: Steve D. (0.1586%)

31.: Kevin W. (0.1342%)

32.: Ben P. (0.0488%)

32.: Damien R. #1 (0.0488%)

32.: Chad L. (0.0488%)

35.: Huki Julie (0.0244%)

35.: Andy M. (0.0244%)

...and the 3rd place standings:

1.: Kansas C. (11.1043%)

2.: Roth W. #1 (9.9995%)

3.: Damien R. #2 (6.9112%)

4.: Brent S. #1 (6.8868%)

5.: Carl B. (6.5429%)

6.: Roth W. #2 (5.8817%)

7.: Erica A. (5.7759%)

8.: Adam E. (5.2795%)

9.: Klei R. #2 (4.9967%)

10.: Chris L. #2 (4.7973%)

11.: Michelle L. #1 (4.2032%)

12.: Larry G. #3 (3.6275%)

13.: Brent E. #1 (2.4617%)

14.: Brent E. #3 (2.4088%)

15.: Jeff W. (1.9836%)

16.: Bruce G. (1.8839%)

17.: Chris L. #1 (1.7903%)

18.: Abel R. (1.6927%)

19.: CJ (1.6174%)

20.: Jim W. (1.5828%)

21.: Jay H. #3 (1.5218%)

22.: James G. #2 (1.0904%)

23.: Daryl J. (0.9602%)

24.: Brent E. #2 (0.9582%)

25.: Marc R. #1 (0.7771%)

26.: Kevin W. (0.594%)

27.: Marc R. #3 (0.5859%)

28.: Jay H. #1 (0.5289%)

29.: Steve D. (0.4028%)

30.: Andy M. (0.354%)

31.: Ben P. (0.2278%)

32.: Scott Has. (0.1953%)

33.: Damien R. #1 (0.1708%)

34.: Brett W. (0.0935%)

35.: Bosun Ava (0.0325%)

35.: Chad L. (0.0325%)

37.: Sally R. (0.0244%)

38.: Hutch H. #2 (0.0122%)

39.: Huki Julie (0.0081%)

For those who like the traditional points rankings, there was no change at the top of the standings there as Brent S. #1 is still the top as far as points goes.  The reason he is not as high in the probabilities is because he has already exhausted 70.16% of his total points.  The average is 61.27%, so he got the lead in large part due to risking a lot of points already. 

Here are the points rankings:

1. Brent S. #1: 326 (-116)

2. Damien R. #2: 323 (-99)

3. Michelle L. #1: 315 (-120)

4. Roth W. #1: 312 (-94)

5. Kansas C.: 309 (-86)

6. BAD: 309 (-132)

7. Adam E.: 308 (-111)

8. Brett W.: 300 (-175)

9. Carl B.: 295 (-85)

10. Klei R. #2: 295 (-98)

11. Miguel D.: 293 (-114)

12. Roth W. #2: 292 (-96)

13. Jim W.: 292 (-152)

14. Kevin W.: 290 (-107)

15. Mike L. #2: 287 (-114)

16. Hutch H. #1: 287 (-116)

17. Erica A.: 283 (-74)

18. Larry G. #3: 282 (-113)

19. Mike L. #1: 281 (-122)

20. Marc R. #3: 281 (-142)

21. Andy M.: 280 (-103)

22. Matt N.: 279 (-143)

23. Hutch H. #2: 276 (-127)

24. Brent E. #2: 273 (-145)

25. Chris L. #1: 272 (-92)

26. Tim N.: 270 (-185)

27. Damien R. #1: 269 (-164)

28. Scott Has.: 267 (-131)

29. Chris L. #2: 265 (-91)

30. Matt J.: 265 (-157)

31. Brent S. #2: 264 (-146)

32. Dave M.: 262 (-135)

33. CJ: 258 (-98)

34. Amos W.: 258 (-162)

35. Bosun Ava: 256 (-171)

36. Steve D.: 255 (-175)

37. Michelle L. #2: 254 (-129)

38. Larry G. #1: 249 (-140)

39. Jeff W.: 243 (-106)

40. Scott Her. #2: 243 (-114)

41. Abel R.: 241 (-94)

42. Brad R.: 241 (-156)

43. Larry G. #2: 238 (-142)

44. Klei R. #1: 236 (-139)

45. Howard S.: 235 (-157)

46. Scott Her. #1: 234 (-159)

47. Karl K.: 233 (-156)

48. James G. #2: 231 (-96)

49. Bruce G.: 230 (-103)

50. Jay H. #1: 229 (-122)

51. Luis B. #1: 229 (-245)

52. Chad L.: 226 (-129)

53. Greg F.: 225 (-146)

54. Kevin F.: 224 (-170)

55. Marc R. #2: 224 (-190)

56. Mike W.: 218 (-203)

57. Jeff D.: 215 (-167)

58. Peter J. #1: 211 (-164)

59. Shawn S.: 210 (-182)

60. Huki Julie: 208 (-203)

61. Justin: 207 (-234)

62. Mandi A.: 206 (-189)

63. Chad C.: 204 (-174)

64. Brent E. #1: 203 (-73)

65. Peter J. #2: 203 (-172)

66. Luis B. #2: 203 (-259)

67. Dre: 201 (-197)

68. Sally R.: 200 (-184)

69. Amy D.: 196 (-161)

70. Brent E. #3: 194 (-82)

71. Ben P.: 190 (-134)

72. Mike S.: 190 (-197)

73. Max W.: 177 (-207)

74. Becky H: 176 (-189)

75. Marc R. #1: 174 (-102)

76. Daryl J.: 173 (-103)

77. James G. #1: 171 (-195)

78. Ben W.: 167 (-193)

79. Tony S.: 164 (-229)

80. Easten S.: 163 (-206)

81. Dennis R.: 163 (-218)

82. Sammie B.: 159 (-224)

83. Jay H. #3: 158 (-122)

84. Ally H.: 143 (-319)

85. Sailor Dan: 141 (-187)

86. Michelle R.: 137 (-302)

87. DesGru: 123 (-201)

88. Jay H. #2: 99 (-177)

89. Jackie S.: 99 (-283)

I wish I had more time to write this stuff because I think there's an interesting statistic I can get to that determines the probability of finishing anywhere in the top 3 (including ties).  It turns out that as of right now Damien R. #2 has about a 36% chance of finishing in the money, and Kansas C. has about 25%, and it goes down from there.  There are a lot of interesting non-parametric stats I can get to regarding ranks using the spreadsheets.  For example, the worst Kansas C. can do is 28th (the lowest worst-case), and the largest spread between best-case and worst-case is Jay H. #3, who is the only person left who can finish both in 1st or last place.

But there are 4 early games tomorrow.  I briefly considered doing all 16 scenarios with eliminations, but that is probably a little too much work and too confusing to read through.  I decided to just do the traditional eliminations, so here they are:

Gator Bowl:

If Nebraska wins:

Andy M. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Georgia for 28 points)

Ben P. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Georgia for 24 points)

Chad L. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Georgia for 32 points)

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Georgia for 28 points)

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Georgia for 28 points)

Sally R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Georgia for 29 points)

Scott Has. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Georgia for 31 points)

If Georgia wins:

Bosun Ava is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Georgia for 12 points)

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Nebraska for 7 points)

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Nebraska for 8 points)

Daryl J. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Nebraska for 24 points)

Huki Julie is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Nebraska for 5 points)

James G. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Nebraska for 18 points)

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Nebraska for 24 points)

Marc R. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Nebraska for 12 points)

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Nebraska for 7 points)

Steve D. is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Nebraska for 4 points)

Heart of Dallas Bowl:

If UNLV wins:

Andy M. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (North Texas for 19 points)

Ben P. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (North Texas for 17 points)

Chad L. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (North Texas for 23 points)

CJ is eliminated from 1st place contention.   (North Texas for 30 points)

Sally R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (UNLV for 1 point)

Scott Has. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (North Texas for 26 points)

If North Texas wins:

Bosun Ava is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (UNLV for 7 points)

Brett W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (UNLV for 2 points)

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (UNLV for 21 points)

Huki Julie is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (North Texas for 4 points)

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (North Texas for 15 points)

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (North Texas for 20 points)

Klei R. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (UNLV for 14 points)

Steve D. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (UNLV for 12 points)

Capital One Bowl:

If Wisconsin wins:

Abel R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (South Carolina for 33 points)

Andy M. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (South Carolina for 1 point)

Ben P. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (South Carolina for 26 points)

Brett W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (South Carolina for 15 points)

CJ is eliminated from 1st place contention.   (South Carolina for 24 points)

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (South Carolina for 22 points)

Huki Julie is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (Wisconsin for 11 points)

James G. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.   (South Carolina for 22 points)

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.   (South Carolina for 26 points)

If South Carolina wins:

Bruce G. is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Wisconsin for 29 points)

Chad L. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (South Carolina for 1 point)

Chris L. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Wisconsin for 16 points)

Huki Julie is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Wisconsin for 11 points)

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Wisconsin for 4 points)

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Wisconsin for 7 points)

Sally R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Wisconsin for 13 points)

Outback Bowl:

If Iowa wins:

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (LSU for 34 points)

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (LSU for 27 points)

Sally R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (LSU for 35 points)

 If LSU wins:

Bosun Ava is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (LSU for 10 points)

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.   (LSU for 14 points)

Brett W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (Iowa for 1 point)

Chad L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   (LSU for 27 points)

Huki Julie is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (LSU for 9 points)

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (Iowa for 1 point)

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.   (LSU for 22 points)

Larry G. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.   (Iowa for 12 points)

Scott Has. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   (LSU for 19 points)

Unfortunately, there will be several combinations of losses that will eliminate some sheets that aren't captured above.  I will try to notify people of those as the day goes on.  I'm guessing that it will be a horrible blood bath first thing on New Years' Day, so if you manage to survive that, you are in great shape.  Good luck and Happy New Year to everyone!!!!!