11/30 - After Alamo Bowl

I have my theories about how to win this Bowl Pool, and this might be at the very top of the list:  If the point spread is ridiculously high, it almost does you no good not to put a ton of points on it.  You are trying to win points, and unless you really think that 2 TD underdog can win outright, you are just as well served not losing ground to the field.  Just looking through the standings after the Alamo Bowl, even if you only took Oregon for something in the low 20s, you are losing significant ground to the field.  Then again, if you can predict a huge upset, you'll crush the field.  That just seems like too high a risk to me.  Whatever the winning person does will be the right strategy, but this particular strategy seems like a good rule of thumb.

There wasn't a ton of movement in the rankings after the much-predicted Oregon victory over Texas.  The most anyone moved up was 9 places (Luis B. #2, from 58th to 49th).  5 more people moved up 7 spots.  The more interesting picks were those that moved down:

5. Huki Julie (Oregon for 14, Down 15 places from 27th to 42nd)

4. Marc R. #2 (Oregon for 9, Down 16 places from 44th to 60th)

4. Sammie B. (Texas for 19, Down 16 places from 56th to 72nd)

2. Max W. (Texas for 3, Down 17 places from 52nd to 69th)

1. Sally R. (Texas for 19, Down 25 from 39th to 64th)

Much of the top of the standings stayed the same.  Here are the updated rankings:

1. Brent S. #1: 247 (-89)

2. Jim W.: 233 (-133)

3. Carl B.: 229 (-43)

4. Adam E.: 229 (-74)

5. Larry G. #3: 224 (-65)

6. BAD: 224 (-106)

7. Kansas C.: 221 (-53)

8. Roth W. #1: 212 (-62)

9. Damien R. #2: 211 (-71)

10. Brett W.: 208 (-146)

11. Michelle L. #1: 207 (-90)

12. Klei R. #2: 201 (-68)

13. Bosun Ava: 201 (-143)

14. Miguel D.: 199 (-82)

17. Matt N.: 198 (-111)

15. Chris L. #2: 198 (-61)

16. Brent S. #2: 198 (-100)

18. Kevin F.: 197 (-122)

20. Brent E. #2: 195 (-114)

19. Kevin W.: 195 (-77)

21. CJ: 194 (-72)

23. Brad R.: 192 (-112)

22. Roth W. #2: 192 (-64)

24. Marc R. #3: 191 (-110)

25. Chris L. #1: 190 (-61)

26. Amos W.: 190 (-129)

30. Dre: 188 (-121)

31. Tim N.: 188 (-129)

28. Scott Has.: 188 (-94)

29. Larry G. #1: 188 (-99)

27. Bruce G.: 188 (-80)

32. Steve D.: 187 (-147)

33. Mike L. #2: 185 (-86)

35. Karl K.: 184 (-121)

34. Andy M.: 184 (-71)

36. Erica A.: 182 (-41)

37. Hutch H. #1: 181 (-85)

38. Klei R. #1: 180 (-98)

39. Matt J.: 180 (-113)

41. Luis B. #1: 179 (-188)

40. Mike L. #1: 179 (-94)

42. Huki Julie: 173 (-161)

45. Mike W.: 172 (-154)

44. Scott Her. #1: 172 (-124)

43. Abel R.: 172 (-70)

46. Hutch H. #2: 170 (-96)

47. Damien R. #1: 169 (-135)

49. Luis B. #2: 167 (-188)

48. Mandi A.: 167 (-131)

50. Dave M.: 164 (-105)

51. Larry G. #2: 164 (-109)

52. Justin: 163 (-203)

53. James G. #2: 162 (-66)

54. Jay H. #1: 159 (-99)

55. Scott Her. #2: 156 (-82)

56. Chad L.: 156 (-95)

57. Michelle L. #2: 155 (-99)

59. Peter J. #1: 153 (-140)

58. Greg F.: 153 (-109)

61. Dennis R.: 152 (-188)

60. Marc R. #2: 152 (-163)

62. Shawn S.: 151 (-149)

63. Jeff D.: 151 (-155)

64. Sally R.: 150 (-160)

65. Mike S.: 145 (-141)

66. Jeff W.: 141 (-81)

67. Howard S.: 138 (-129)

69. Max W.: 136 (-145)

68. Amy D.: 136 (-114)

70. Becky H: 135 (-129)

71. Chad C.: 135 (-139)

72. Sammie B.: 133 (-199)

73. Easten S.: 132 (-134)

74. Ally H.: 128 (-268)

75. Peter J. #2: 126 (-167)

77. Tony S.: 124 (-170)

76. Ben P.: 124 (-110)

78. Michelle R.: 123 (-205)

79. Brent E. #1: 117 (-54)

80. Sailor Dan: 115 (-124)

81. James G. #1: 111 (-123)

82. Brent E. #3: 108 (-63)

83. Daryl J.: 107 (-64)

84. Jackie S.: 99 (-196)

85. Ben W.: 95 (-154)

86. Jay H. #3: 91 (-80)

87. Marc R. #1: 88 (-83)

88. Jay H. #2: 78 (-93)

89. DesGru: 72 (-150)

...and the net points:

1. Carl B.: 186

2. Kansas C.: 168

3. Larry G. #3: 159

4. Brent S. #1: 158

5. Adam E.: 155

6. Roth W. #1: 150

7. Erica A.: 141

8. Damien R. #2: 140

9. Chris L. #2: 137

10. Klei R. #2: 133

11. Chris L. #1: 129

12. Roth W. #2: 128

13. CJ: 122

14. BAD: 118

14. Kevin W.: 118

16. Michelle L. #1: 117

16. Miguel D.: 117

18. Andy M.: 113

19. Bruce G.: 108

20. Abel R.: 102

21. Jim W.: 100

22. Mike L. #2: 99

23. Brent S. #2: 98

24. Hutch H. #1: 96

24. James G. #2: 96

26. Scott Has.: 94

27. Larry G. #1: 89

28. Matt N.: 87

29. Mike L. #1: 85

30. Klei R. #1: 82

31. Brent E. #2: 81

31. Marc R. #3: 81

33. Brad R.: 80

34. Kevin F.: 75

35. Hutch H. #2: 74

35. Scott Her. #2: 74

37. Dre: 67

37. Matt J.: 67

39. Karl K.: 63

39. Brent E. #1: 63

41. Brett W.: 62

42. Amos W.: 61

42. Chad L.: 61

44. Jay H. #1: 60

44. Jeff W.: 60

46. Tim N.: 59

46. Dave M.: 59

48. Bosun Ava: 58

49. Michelle L. #2: 56

50. Larry G. #2: 55

51. Scott Her. #1: 48

52. Brent E. #3: 45

53. Greg F.: 44

54. Daryl J.: 43

55. Steve D.: 40

56. Mandi A.: 36

57. Damien R. #1: 34

58. Amy D.: 22

59. Mike W.: 18

60. Ben P.: 14

61. Peter J. #1: 13

62. Huki Julie: 12

63. Jay H. #3: 11

64. Howard S.: 9

65. Becky H: 6

66. Marc R. #1: 5

67. Mike S.: 4

68. Shawn S.: 2

69. Easten S.: -2

70. Jeff D.: -4

70. Chad C.: -4

72. Luis B. #1: -9

72. Max W.: -9

72. Sailor Dan: -9

75. Sally R.: -10

76. Marc R. #2: -11

77. James G. #1: -12

78. Jay H. #2: -15

79. Luis B. #2: -21

80. Dennis R.: -36

81. Justin: -40

82. Peter J. #2: -41

83. Tony S.: -46

84. Ben W.: -59

85. Sammie B.: -66

86. DesGru: -78

87. Michelle R.: -82

88. Jackie S.: -97

89. Ally H.: -140

But we've got one more game to go before we are down to just 16 left.  This one promises to be another snooze-fest, albeit a high-scoring one.  The Holiday Bowl pits Arizona State against Texas Tech.  I've been to this bowl game, and it's pretty fun, but this matchup doesn't promise much by way of excitement.  If anything, the picks are even more lopsided than the last game - as the stats will show:

Vegas line: Arizona State -14.5

Median Pick:  Arizona State for 28 points

Mean Pick: Arizona State for 24.15 points

Picks for Arizona State: 85

Picks for Arizona State in the Top 10: 55

Picks for Texas Tech: 4

Picks for Texas Tech in the Top 10: 0 (Max = Jay H. #3 for 19)

Picks <= 10 points: 6

This game has the 3rd lowest pick variance of all the remaining games (and 6th overall), meaning that most of the picks are consolidated in the same area.  Just like last game, they are all consolidated on the high side towards Arizona State.  As a result, I'm not sure how much of this game I will watch.  Perhaps the best thing about this game will be when they come back from commercial, and I get to see shots of San Diego.  It's kind of fun to see where I live on national TV.

Good Luck!!!!!