Probabilities and eliminations for Chik-Fil-A Bowl

Here are the eliminations over the first 3 games of the day:

Amy D. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

BAD (3rd)

Becky H (1st)

Ben P. (1st)

Ben W. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Brent S. #2 (2nd, 3rd)

Brett W. (2nd)

Chad C. (3rd)

Chad L. (1st)

Dennis R. (1st)

Easten S. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Greg F. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Jackie S. (2nd, 3rd)

Jay H. #2 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Jeff D. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Karl K. (2nd, 3rd)

Kevin F. (1st, 2nd)

Klei R. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Larry G. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Larry G. #2 (2nd)

Luis B. #2 (2nd, 3rd)

Mandi A. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Marc R. #2 (1st, 3rd)

Matt J. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Max W. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Michelle L. #2 (2nd, 3rd)

Mike L. #2 (3rd)

Mike W. (1st, 3rd)

Peter J. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Peter J. #2 (2nd, 3rd)

Sailor Dan (1st, 2nd)

Sammie B. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Scott Her. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Scott Her. #2 (2nd, 3rd)

Shawn S. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Tim N. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Tony S. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

The probabilities of winning have changed since Carl B. took Rice in the last game.  Here are the updated probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Damien R. #2 (13.1327%)

2.: Jay H. #3 (9.2285%)

3.: Brent E. #1 (7.9406%)

4.: Erica A. (7.7412%)

5.: Adam E. (6.5307%)

6.: Chris L. #2 (5.5297%)

7.: Klei R. #2 (5.4992%)

8.: Roth W. #2 (5.4829%)

9.: Bruce G. (4.6122%)

10.: Brent E. #3 (3.6295%)

11.: Carl B. (3.597%)

12.: Kansas C. (3.1046%)

13.: Jeff W. (2.6468%)

14.: Jim W. (2.4637%)

15.: Roth W. #1 (2.4271%)

16.: Larry G. #3 (2.3742%)

17.: CJ (2.3356%)

18.: Michelle L. #1 (2.1891%)

19.: Brent S. #1 (2.0731%)

20.: Abel R. (1.7679%)

21.: Daryl J. (1.6316%)

22.: Sally R. (0.8402%)

23.: James G. #2 (0.8117%)

24.: Marc R. #1 (0.6286%)

25.: Jay H. #1 (0.4821%)

26.: Huki Julie (0.3845%)

27.: Dre (0.2258%)

27.: Steve D. (0.2258%)

29.: Chris L. #1 (0.1953%)

30.: Brent E. #2 (0.1037%)

31.: Brad R. (0.0915%)

32.: Bosun Ava (0.0366%)

33.: Marc R. #3 (0.0183%)

34.: Scott Has. (0.0122%)

35.: Kevin W. (0.004%)

...and the probabilities for 2nd:

1.: Damien R. #2 (9.6761%)

2.: Kansas C. (7.7239%)

3.: Roth W. #2 (6.2947%)

4.: Erica A. (5.8787%)

5.: Klei R. #2 (5.4565%)

6.: Roth W. #1 (5.3873%)

7.: Carl B. (5.2612%)

8.: Adam E. (5.0506%)

9.: Chris L. #2 (5.0069%)

10.: Brent E. #1 (4.9896%)

11.: Larry G. #3 (4.0028%)

12.: Michelle L. #1 (3.9031%)

13.: Bruce G. (3.6539%)

14.: Brent S. #1 (3.3803%)

15.: Jay H. #3 (3.1697%)

16.: Jim W. (2.8859%)

17.: CJ (2.8737%)

18.: Brent E. #3 (2.2399%)

19.: Abel R. (2.1799%)

20.: Jeff W. (2.007%)

21.: Chris L. #1 (1.5309%)

22.: Sally R. (1.2919%)

23.: Marc R. #1 (0.9399%)

24.: Daryl J. (0.8483%)

25.: James G. #2 (0.6896%)

26.: Jay H. #1 (0.6266%)

27.: Brad R. (0.5747%)

28.: Brent E. #2 (0.4699%)

29.: Marc R. #3 (0.4119%)

30.: Huki Julie (0.3702%)

31.: Dre (0.3499%)

32.: Bosun Ava (0.2807%)

33.: Scott Has. (0.1647%)

34.: Steve D. (0.122%)

35.: Kevin W. (0.0915%)

36.: Ben P. (0.0671%)

37.: Dennis R. (0.0427%)

37.: Andy M. (0.0427%)

39.: Damien R. #1 (0.0244%)

39.: Chad L. (0.0244%)

41.: Becky H (0.0122%)

....and the probabilities for 3rd place:

1.: Kansas C. (9.8307%)

2.: Roth W. #1 (8.7727%)

3.: Damien R. #2 (6.7301%)

4.: Carl B. (6.1513%)

5.: Erica A. (6.0516%)

6.: Brent S. #1 (5.4789%)

7.: Roth W. #2 (5.1493%)

8.: Chris L. #2 (4.84%)

9.: Klei R. #2 (4.72%)

10.: Adam E. (4.5623%)

11.: Larry G. #3 (3.6916%)

12.: Michelle L. #1 (3.5736%)

13.: Jim W. (3.0822%)

14.: Bruce G. (2.8218%)

15.: CJ (2.7821%)

16.: Brent E. #1 (2.5299%)

17.: Brent E. #3 (2.1901%)

18.: Jay H. #3 (2.0996%)

19.: Abel R. (2.0355%)

20.: Jeff W. (1.7852%)

21.: Chris L. #1 (1.5167%)

22.: Daryl J. (0.9806%)

23.: Sally R. (0.9745%)

24.: James G. #2 (0.9521%)

25.: Brad R. (0.9429%)

26.: Marc R. #1 (0.9256%)

27.: Brent E. #2 (0.7476%)

28.: Marc R. #3 (0.7395%)

29.: Jay H. #1 (0.653%)

30.: Kevin W. (0.4496%)

31.: Huki Julie (0.417%)

32.: Dre (0.3621%)

33.: Andy M. (0.2868%)

34.: Steve D. (0.2502%)

35.: Scott Has. (0.2197%)

36.: Ben P. (0.1973%)

37.: Bosun Ava (0.181%)

38.: Damien R. #1 (0.0976%)

39.: Dennis R. (0.0915%)

40.: Brett W. (0.0467%)

41.: Kevin F. (0.0244%)

41.: Larry G. #2 (0.0244%)

43.: Chad L. (0.0162%)

44.: Sailor Dan (0.0122%)

45.: Hutch H. #2 (0.0061%)

46.: Becky H (0.004%)

But there's still one more game to go tonight.  Here are the eliminations for the Chik-fil-A Bowl:

If Duke wins:

Brett W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Texas A&M for 34 points)

Chad L. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Texas A&M for 28 points)

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.  (Texas A&M for 33 points)

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Texas A&M for 34 points)

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Texas A&M for 31 points)

If Texas A&M wins:

Becky H is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Duke for 13 points)

Bosun Ava is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Texas A&M for 13 points)

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Duke for 5 points)

Dennis R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Duke for 5 points)

Dre is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.  (Duke for 22 points)

Kevin F. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Texas A&M for 10 points)

Larry G. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Texas A&M for 25 points)

Marc R. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Texas A&M for 22 points)

Sailor Dan is eliminated from 3rd place contention.  (Duke for 6 points)

Sally R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.  (Duke for 24 points)

Scott Has. is eliminated from 1st place contention.  (Texas A&M for 29 points)

Some of those are really big points that people are going to need to go against.  I'm a little surprised at Scott Has. needing to go against one of his top 10 picks in order to stay alive.  That's one of my favorite stats of the pool so far....

Good luck to everyone!!!!!!