After Hawaii Bowl - 12/24

Good evening everyone.  I hope this Christmas season is finding everyone in good spirits.  There was a game tonight, and a lot of people had very few points on it, so even if you managed to lose the game, you probably aren't too busted up about it.

Speaking of which, we have a new leader in the pool for the third consecutive day as Huki Julie fell from the realm of the unbeaten.  That's a little surprising given that 5 of the 6 games resulted in the favorite winning.  So far, 18 people have managed to get 5/6.  Not the least of which are Daryl J., Brent E. # 1 and Brent E. #3.  They are 82nd, t79th and t79th respectively.  It makes me wonder the strategy of back-loading the points on the sheet.  It seems like you are missing out on opportunities to pick up points, which is pretty much the point of this whole pool.  Then again, if they pull out a huge rally in the later games, I could be totally wrong.  It's just not a philosophy that subscribe to.  Then again, the only strategy that works is whatever the winner wound up doing, and we won't know that for a while.

Another 36 people are 4/6, followed by 20 with 3/6, 12 with 2/6 and 3 with 1/6.  That means the average is 3.61 correct picks.  That is actually on pace with last year's winner, who got 26/35 right.  It makes me think that maybe we are getting better as a group at picking games.  Either that, or it's been mostly chalk and we stayed away from courageously picking upsets.

All right, let's get to the rankings.  The big winner for the day was Karl K.  He moved up from #64 to #36 behind the strength of picking Oregon State for 23 points.  The biggest dropper of the day was Kevin W., who dropped from #35 to #50 after his Boise State pick dropped him 17 points.  Of course these "biggest mover" statistics kind of depend on where you started the day.  It's a lot easier to move up a lot when you have a lot of people ahead of you to start the day.  The opposite is true of the biggest dropper, so take them with a grain of salt.

Here are the total points standings:

1. Kansas C.: 98 (-26)

2. Sally R.: 94 (-22)

3. Miguel D.: 93 (-15)

4. Adam E.: 89 (-27)

5. Huki Julie: 84 (-8)

6. Roth W. #2: 82 (-8)

7. Marc R. #3: 81 (-31)

8. Roth W. #1: 80 (-10)

9. Michelle L. #1: 80 (-16)

10. Brad R.: 78 (-12)

11. Kevin F.: 77 (-16)

12. Sammie B.: 77 (-25)

13. Jim W.: 77 (-35)

14. Brent S. #1: 76 (-36)

15. Marc R. #2: 72 (-33)

16. Brent E. #2: 70 (-13)

17. Amos W.: 67 (-22)

18. Chad L.: 66 (-5)

19. Dennis R.: 66 (-68)

20. Michelle L. #2: 65 (-29)

21. Klei R. #1: 65 (-35)

22. Matt N.: 65 (-45)

23. Bruce G.: 64 (-22)

24. Luis B. #1: 64 (-44)

25. Becky H: 63 (-27)

26. BAD: 61 (-18)

27. Bosun Ava: 61 (-50)

28. Carl B.: 60 (-17)

29. Hutch H. #1: 60 (-25)

30. Easten S.: 59 (-38)

31. Justin: 59 (-48)

32. Ally H.: 59 (-102)

33. Erica A.: 58 (-11)

34. Scott Has.: 56 (-15)

35. Mike W.: 56 (-39)

36. Karl K.: 56 (-53)

37. Jeff D.: 55 (-18)

38. Mike L. #2: 55 (-20)

39. Hutch H. #2: 55 (-30)

40. Damien R. #2: 54 (-14)

41. Max W.: 54 (-56)

42. Andy M.: 53 (-20)

43. Chris L. #1: 52 (-6)

43. Chris L. #2: 52 (-6)

45. Steve D.: 52 (-16)

46. Brett W.: 52 (-82)

47. Scott Her. #1: 51 (-37)

48. Luis B. #2: 51 (-43)

49. Mike L. #1: 50 (-25)

50. Kevin W.: 50 (-30)

51. Amy D.: 49 (-5)

52. Damien R. #1: 48 (-30)

53. Greg F.: 46 (-1)

54. Tim N.: 45 (-11)

55. Jeff W.: 45 (-12)

56. Ben P.: 45 (-14)

57. Abel R.: 45 (-25)

58. Dave M.: 45 (-32)

59. Tony S.: 44 (-45)

60. Howard S.: 43 (-24)

61. Chad C.: 42 (-31)

62. James G. #2: 39 (-26)

63. Jay H. #1: 38 (-29)

64. Scott Her. #2: 38 (-32)

65. Brent S. #2: 38 (-43)

66. Larry G. #3: 37 (-3)

67. Sailor Dan: 37 (-37)

68. Dre: 36 (-27)

69. CJ: 33 (-5)

70. Klei R. #2: 31 (-38)

71. Jay H. #3: 30 (-21)

72. Larry G. #2: 28 (-8)

73. James G. #1: 28 (-31)

74. Shawn S.: 28 (-38)

75. Jackie S.: 28 (-61)

76. Larry G. #1: 25 (-11)

77. Peter J. #1: 25 (-40)

78. Mandi A.: 24 (-90)

79. Brent E. #1: 20 (-1)

79. Brent E. #3: 20 (-1)

81. Mike S.: 19 (-54)

82. Daryl J.: 17 (-4)

83. Matt J.: 15 (-52)

84. Marc R. #1: 14 (-7)

85. Michelle R.: 11 (-77)

86. Jay H. #2: 10 (-11)

87. DesGru: 4 (-46)

88. Ben W.: 3 (-35)

89. Peter J. #2: 3 (-62)

...and here are the rankings for the net points:

1. Miguel D.: 78

2. Huki Julie: 76

3. Roth W. #2: 74

4. Kansas C.: 72

4. Sally R.: 72

6. Roth W. #1: 70

7. Brad R.: 66

8. Michelle L. #1: 64

9. Adam E.: 62

10. Kevin F.: 61

10. Chad L.: 61

12. Brent E. #2: 57

13. Sammie B.: 52

14. Marc R. #3: 50

15. Erica A.: 47

16. Chris L. #1: 46

16. Chris L. #2: 46

18. Amos W.: 45

18. Greg F.: 45

20. Amy D.: 44

21. BAD: 43

21. Carl B.: 43

23. Jim W.: 42

23. Bruce G.: 42

25. Scott Has.: 41

26. Brent S. #1: 40

26. Damien R. #2: 40

28. Marc R. #2: 39

29. Jeff D.: 37

30. Michelle L. #2: 36

30. Becky H: 36

30. Steve D.: 36

33. Hutch H. #1: 35

33. Mike L. #2: 35

35. Tim N.: 34

35. Larry G. #3: 34

37. Andy M.: 33

37. Jeff W.: 33

39. Ben P.: 31

40. Klei R. #1: 30

41. CJ: 28

42. Hutch H. #2: 25

42. Mike L. #1: 25

44. Easten S.: 21

45. Matt N.: 20

45. Luis B. #1: 20

45. Kevin W.: 20

45. Abel R.: 20

45. Larry G. #2: 20

50. Howard S.: 19

50. Brent E. #1: 19

50. Brent E. #3: 19

53. Damien R. #1: 18

54. Mike W.: 17

55. Scott Her. #1: 14

55. Larry G. #1: 14

57. Dave M.: 13

57. James G. #2: 13

57. Daryl J.: 13

60. Bosun Ava: 11

60. Justin: 11

60. Chad C.: 11

63. Jay H. #1: 9

63. Dre: 9

63. Jay H. #3: 9

66. Luis B. #2: 8

67. Marc R. #1: 7

68. Scott Her. #2: 6

69. Karl K.: 3

70. Sailor Dan: 0

71. Tony S.: -1

71. Jay H. #2: -1

73. Dennis R.: -2

73. Max W.: -2

75. James G. #1: -3

76. Brent S. #2: -5

77. Klei R. #2: -7

78. Shawn S.: -10

79. Peter J. #1: -15

80. Brett W.: -30

81. Ben W.: -32

82. Jackie S.: -33

83. Mike S.: -35

84. Matt J.: -37

85. DesGru: -42

86. Ally H.: -43

87. Peter J. #2: -59

88. Mandi A.: -66

88. Michelle R.: -66

I hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas.  You can all relax as there are no football games tomorrow.  There are two on 12/26, however, and I think that they are slightly more important than most of the games we've seen so far.

The first of the games is the Little Caesar's Bowl.  This got my second vote for worst place to host a bowl game.  I think the game I would want to go to least is Boise, ID, but Detroit, MI has to be a close second.  Probably the only reason it's not #1 is because a lot of my family is from Detroit, so I probably don't think it's as bad as other people would.  This bowl game is 21st in the ranking of total points with 1393 points on it (15.65 average).  That makes it the 2nd highest point total game we've had so far.  That's a bit of a surprise given that Bowling Green is only a 5 point favorite over Pittsburgh, and we've had at least 3 games with larger point spreads.

Despite the point spread being only 5 points, we really went all in on one side in this game.  Only 10 people picked Pittsburgh, which could really pay off for them if they pull off an upset.  79 people went with Bowling Green.  The median pick is Bowling Green for 16 points.  11 people put Bowling Green in their top 10, including Mike W., who was so daring as to pick them for 35 points.  The people who took Pitt, certainly weren't too in love with the pick, as the most anyone took for them was Brett W., who took them for 17.  Only 3 of the 10 people that took Pitt took them for more than 10 points.  Given how many people were on Bowling Green, they may not have needed to risk much.

The second game of the day is the San Diego Poinsettia Bowl, which I have gone to in years past (but not this year).   This one will be the game with the 16th most points risked on it (1575 - 17.70 average).  The variance of the picks was much higher on this game than on the Little Caesar's Bowl, however.  73 people took Northern Illinois, while 16 people took Utah State.  The median pick was Northern Illinois for 14 points.  Those are brave stances, since the Vegas line was Northern Illinois by 2.  That would have you think that the pick distribution would be a little closer to even, but I guess the gaudy record of Northern Illinois, and the fact that they almost went to a BCS bowl this year was enough to sway people.

A whopping 23 people had Northern Illinois in their top 10.  Compare that to the zero that had Utah State in their top 10, and I think you can make a pretty strong case that the Wolf pack are getting disrespected by our little group.  The most points people have wagered on Utah State is 25 by Bosun Ava and Bruce G.  That could be a could pay off from those two.  We'll just have to see.

That's it for me tonight.  I have to wrap some presents and tend to an ailing cat.  I'm hoping for a holly jolly Christmas tomorrow as we go up to San Clemente to see my family and eat too many cookies.  I hope everyone has a fun holiday.  I'll be back on 12/26.

Merry Christmas!!!!!!