12/30 - Stats for Armed Forces Bowl

Good morning everyone.  I hope everyone enjoyed their day off from college football.  I went hiking and then watched some NFL football.  I was happy to see the Chargers make the playoffs, and I was happy to win the pick 'em league I was in with a rousing 9 game lead.  Woo Hoo!!!

All that prepares us for today's 4 game slate in college football.  It looks like the first two are the games that will really make a big difference today, as the last two look like everyone picked more or less in the same direction.  I've noticed that the bigger the variance in the picks, the more effect the game has on the standings.  With that thought in mind, 2 of the 4 lowest remaining games in terms of pick variance are the last two tonight.  It also means that 12 of the 14 biggest variance games have yet to be played, so there's a lot of room for movement yet in this pool.  That probably keeps a lot of sheets alive.

The first game today is the game with the biggest variance.  That's probably due to hardly anyone being familiar with either team.  It's the Armed Forces Bowl, which pits Middle Tennessee and Navy.  Here are the stats:

Vegas Line: Navy by 7.

Median Pick: Navy for 13 points.

Mean Pick:  Navy for 9.75 points.

Picks for Navy: 69

Top 10 picks for Navy: 11

Picks for Middle Tennessee: 20

Top 10 picks for Middle Tennessee: 3

Picks <= 10 points: 24

So, this looks like a solid, middle of the pack game, that a lot of people have some decent amount of points on.  It's also the kind of game you probably should win if you want to win this pool.  I'm not saying you have to, but it probably would help an awful lot.

I'll be back later with more updates.  Good luck to everyone!!!!!!