After Poinsettia Bowl - 12/26

Happy Boxing Day everyone!!!  I spent mine going to lunch at Five Guys with my wife and brother, and watched Despicable Me 2, while Utah State was busy pulling off the second upset of the night.  This was a fun day, although I'm guessing most people don't think that way.  Only 5 people managed to pull off a 2/2 day today:

Bruce G. (40 total points)

Peter J. #2 (33 points)

Bosun Ava (28 points)

Klei R. #2 (23 points)

Karl K. (13 points)

That's the list.  A whopping 68 of the 89 (more than 3/4) of the field got no points today.  While that may not really effect the total points rankings, it makes a pretty big dent in the net points rankings.

Today marked only the 2nd and 3rd time in 8 games where the favorite didn't win.  As I mentioned yesterday, I thought it was strange that the picks were so lopsided when the point spreads weren't that much off. By the time the Poinsettia Bowl kicked off, the point spread was essentially zero.  73/89 of us took Northern Illinois, which is pretty one sided.

For the 4th straight day, we have a new leader at the top of the standings.  But before we get there, we have the biggest movers of the day.  The person who benefitted the most in the standings today was Klei R. #2, who moved up 28 places from 70th at the start of the day and finished the day at 42nd, for a 28 point move up in the standings.  Because so many people wound up with zero points and so few people wound up with any points, the biggest droppers only moved down 7 spots, and there was a 4 way tie for that honor:

Chad L. (18th - 25th)

Dennis R. (19th - 26th)

Michelle L. #2 (20th - 27th)

BAD (26th - 33rd)

Here are the total points rankings:

1. Bruce G.: 104 (-22)

2. Kansas C.: 98 (-37)

3. Adam E.: 97 (-48)

4. Sally R.: 94 (-75)

5. Miguel D.: 93 (-44)

6. Bosun Ava: 89 (-50)

7. Huki Julie: 84 (-57)

8. Roth W. #2: 82 (-36)

9. Klei R. #1: 81 (-44)

10. Marc R. #3: 81 (-65)

11. Roth W. #1: 80 (-34)

12. Michelle L. #1: 80 (-46)

13. Brad R.: 78 (-42)

14. Kevin F.: 77 (-58)

15. Sammie B.: 77 (-63)

16. Jim W.: 77 (-85)

17. Brent S. #1: 76 (-62)

18. Marc R. #2: 72 (-68)

19. Brent E. #2: 70 (-43)

20. Karl K.: 69 (-53)

21. Brett W.: 69 (-109)

22. Scott Has.: 68 (-40)

23. Amos W.: 67 (-46)

24. Hutch H. #2: 67 (-49)

25. Chad L.: 66 (-26)

26. Dennis R.: 66 (-116)

27. Michelle L. #2: 65 (-48)

28. Matt N.: 65 (-72)

29. Carl B.: 64 (-34)

30. Luis B. #1: 64 (-109)

31. Becky H: 63 (-68)

32. Damien R. #2: 62 (-37)

33. BAD: 61 (-43)

34. Erica A.: 60 (-20)

35. Hutch H. #1: 60 (-56)

36. Easten S.: 59 (-79)

37. Justin: 59 (-109)

38. Ally H.: 59 (-137)

39. Mike W.: 56 (-108)

40. Jeff D.: 55 (-54)

40. Mike L. #2: 55 (-54)

42. Klei R. #2: 54 (-38)

43. Max W.: 54 (-95)

44. Andy M.: 53 (-46)

45. Chris L. #1: 52 (-33)

45. Chris L. #2: 52 (-33)

47. Steve D.: 52 (-74)

48. Scott Her. #1: 51 (-88)

49. Luis B. #2: 51 (-108)

50. Kevin W.: 50 (-56)

51. Mike L. #1: 50 (-59)

52. Amy D.: 49 (-24)

53. Damien R. #1: 48 (-71)

54. Peter J. #1: 47 (-51)

55. Greg F.: 46 (-41)

56. Jeff W.: 45 (-29)

57. Tim N.: 45 (-33)

58. Abel R.: 45 (-39)

59. Ben P.: 45 (-61)

60. Dave M.: 45 (-63)

61. Tony S.: 44 (-81)

62. Scott Her. #2: 43 (-53)

63. Howard S.: 43 (-67)

64. Larry G. #3: 42 (-25)

65. Chad C.: 42 (-67)

66. Brent S. #2: 42 (-68)

67. James G. #1: 40 (-51)

68. James G. #2: 39 (-39)

69. Jay H. #1: 38 (-82)

70. Sailor Dan: 37 (-68)

71. Peter J. #2: 36 (-62)

72. Dre: 36 (-77)

73. CJ: 33 (-34)

74. Jay H. #3: 32 (-36)

75. Larry G. #2: 28 (-41)

76. Shawn S.: 28 (-93)

77. Jackie S.: 28 (-122)

78. Larry G. #1: 25 (-58)

79. Daryl J.: 24 (-12)

80. Mandi A.: 24 (-98)

81. Brent E. #1: 20 (-16)

81. Brent E. #3: 20 (-16)

83. Mike S.: 19 (-95)

84. Matt J.: 17 (-66)

85. Marc R. #1: 14 (-22)

86. Michelle R.: 11 (-142)

87. Jay H. #2: 10 (-26)

88. DesGru: 4 (-86)

89. Ben W.: 3 (-71)

That's quite a move up for my uncle Bruce.  I know he really liked this pool, so I hope today's result gives him at least $5.00 worth of enjoyment.  There's still 27 games left, so nothing is decided yet, but even being in the lead one day would make me pretty happy.  Here's the net point standings (points earned - points lost):

1. Bruce G.: 82

2. Kansas C.: 61

3. Adam E.: 49

3. Miguel D.: 49

5. Roth W. #2: 46

5. Roth W. #1: 46

7. Chad L.: 40

7. Erica A.: 40

9. Bosun Ava: 39

10. Klei R. #1: 37

11. Brad R.: 36

12. Michelle L. #1: 34

13. Carl B.: 30

14. Scott Has.: 28

15. Huki Julie: 27

15. Brent E. #2: 27

17. Damien R. #2: 25

17. Amy D.: 25

19. Amos W.: 21

20. Sally R.: 19

20. Kevin F.: 19

20. Chris L. #1: 19

20. Chris L. #2: 19

24. Hutch H. #2: 18

24. BAD: 18

26. Michelle L. #2: 17

26. Larry G. #3: 17

28. Marc R. #3: 16

28. Karl K.: 16

28. Klei R. #2: 16

28. Jeff W.: 16

32. Sammie B.: 14

32. Brent S. #1: 14

34. Tim N.: 12

34. Daryl J.: 12

36. Andy M.: 7

37. Abel R.: 6

38. Greg F.: 5

39. Marc R. #2: 4

39. Hutch H. #1: 4

39. Brent E. #1: 4

39. Brent E. #3: 4

43. Jeff D.: 1

43. Mike L. #2: 1

45. James G. #2: 0

46. CJ: -1

47. Peter J. #1: -4

47. Jay H. #3: -4

49. Becky H: -5

50. Kevin W.: -6

51. Matt N.: -7

52. Jim W.: -8

52. Marc R. #1: -8

54. Mike L. #1: -9

55. Scott Her. #2: -10

56. James G. #1: -11

57. Larry G. #2: -13

58. Ben P.: -16

58. Jay H. #2: -16

60. Dave M.: -18

61. Easten S.: -20

62. Steve D.: -22

63. Damien R. #1: -23

64. Howard S.: -24

65. Chad C.: -25

66. Brent S. #2: -26

66. Peter J. #2: -26

68. Sailor Dan: -31

69. Larry G. #1: -33

70. Scott Her. #1: -37

70. Tony S.: -37

72. Brett W.: -40

73. Max W.: -41

73. Dre: -41

75. Jay H. #1: -44

76. Luis B. #1: -45

77. Matt J.: -49

78. Dennis R.: -50

78. Justin: -50

80. Mike W.: -52

81. Luis B. #2: -57

82. Shawn S.: -65

83. Ben W.: -68

84. Mandi A.: -74

85. Mike S.: -76

86. Ally H.: -78

87. DesGru: -82

88. Jackie S.: -94

89. Michelle R.: -131

Bruce has a pretty sizeable lead in this metric.  Like I said, it's a long pool, so you never know what will happen over the next days.

Another anomaly that I noticed is that we are now, as a group, only picking at 49%.  As a group, we are only slightly better in games that we marked as top 10 games (55-51 = 52%).  That makes things interesting.   I mentioned this yesterday, but I think it's worth reiterating...  The most games people have correct is 6/8, and that record is shared between two sheets.  One of them is Bruce G., who, at 104 points is in first place.  The second is Daryl J., who at 24 points, is in 79th place.  That's part of the reason I don't really like the 1,2,3,4, etc. strategy.  That's a pretty big disparity.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the three people who only have one game so far.  Mandi A. (East Carolina), DesGru (East Carolina), and Michelle R. (Louisiana-Lafayette) have really struggled so far. Better luck tomorrow to the three of you.  You still have a lot of games to catch up to the field.

Speaking of which, there are three games tomorrow.  Looking at the points allocated to these games, it seems like they are mostly pretty uninteresting bowl games.  Of the Bowl games left, 2 of the 3 lowest points wagered are on tomorrow's games.

That starts with the first game of the day.  The Military Bowl has the fewest points wagered on it of any remaining bowl game (1030 total - 32nd overall).  This game pits Marshall vs. Maryland.  The Vegas line for this game is Marshall -2, even though you'd think that Maryland would have somewhat of an advantage given they are playing the game in Maryland.  Then again, West Virginia isn't that far away.

Despite the small point spread, it looks like we went moderately heavy on the favorite.  Marshall has more picks than Maryland to the tune of 53-36.  The median pick for the game is Marshall for 4 points, but the arithmetic mean is only Marshall for 1.28 points, so we are pretty centrally picking after all.

Only 5 people have this game in their top 10.  James G. #2, Justin & Scott Has. have Marshall, while it looks like Peter J. is making his big push compliments of the Terrapins, as he has both of his entries for Maryland at 30 points.

The second game of the day is the Texas Bowl.  It is the game that promises to have the most effect on the standings as it has the most points wagered on it for the day.  It has 1550 points, good enough for 17th overall.  That's a lot for this early in Bowl season.  The Vegas spread is Minnesota by 5 over Syracuse.  Much like today's Little Caesar's Bowl, this type of point spread has really turned into a lopsided pick distribution.  The median pick is Minnesota for 16 points.  77 people took Minnesota (17.56 points wagered on average) and 12 people took Syracuse (16.50 points wagered on average).  13 people have this as a top 10 game, but only 2 of them have Syracuse (Bosun Ava and Michelle R.).

The final game of the day is the Fight Hunger Bowl, because what better way to fight hunger than to pay two college football teams to come to San Francisco and play a more or less meaningless football game.  I'm sure it will make a huge dent in fighting hunger.  This game has 1179 points wagered on it, which is good enough for 29th overall.  The latest Vegas line is Washington by 3.5 points over BYU, and we may be pretty close to that type of distribution, since the median pick is Washington for 8 points.  I think that's what makes this pool interesting.  It's games like this where you are kind of forced to put a decent amount of points on it, even if you aren't totally in love with the game.  63 people took Washington (13.56 points on average) and 26 people took BYU (12.50 points on average).  7 people have this game in their top 10, but only one of those people took BYU in that capacity (Ally H.).  I always pull for Ally H.  I'd like for her to win one of these things.  It will be an uphill fight for her right now, but if BYU managed to score an upset, it could happen.

So that's it for today.  Enjoy the games tomorrow.  It was a fun day today with all the upsets.  I'd be OK if more of that happened tomorrow.

PS -- I added a widget on the blog yesterday, so if you want to automatically get updates when I post anything, you can add your e-mail address and you'll get them.  Some people already do, but if you want to, feel free

Good luck tomorrow - and congratulations Bruce!!!!!!