Tennessee and Pittsburgh upset special edition

 Congratulations if you survived the 5-Bowl game extravaganza today.  There was one game that went into overtime that I’m guessing absolutely nobody watched and there was a game with some pretty big consequences at the end of the day.  I know I mentioned this story before, but my theory on how you win these types of pools is that you try some chances and hope your chances paid off.  I think the results of the Orange Bowl tonight were such a chance.  It wasn’t the biggest upset of the pool so far.  It wasn’t even the biggest upset of the day, but I’m guessing it’s the upset between two teams that people have seen over the course of the season.

Only 13.42% of all points wagered on the Orange Bowl won.  If you happened to be alive and near the top of the standings, this could be a huge springboard.  If you were a middling team in the standings, it could propel you near the top, and if you were at the bottom, it could maybe stave off elimination for a few more games.  Winning those types of games is really important.  I can remember a really early pool where one person picked an upset in the Hawaii Bowl.  That upset happened and they wound up winning because of the huge swing in the points.

I mentioned that the Orange Bowl was not even the biggest upset of the day.  Pittsburgh over UCLA in the Sun Bowl was an even bigger upset.  It was played while people may still have been at work, and nobody ever seems to care about the Sun Bowl (even though it has a history of upsets).  Still, even fewer points were won in that game.

If you look at those two games and look at who got points, they fall into 2 camps.  The first camp are the two people that got the most points (Hurley 357, Quinn 1130).  These two entries got 64 and 38 points respectively over those two games.  However, they were both already eliminated from any payouts, so taking a risk on those games was a little too late.  Often times, when you see people take risks on games like this, they also have taken a lot of risks elsewhere that have not paid off.  It’s kind of like the person that picks 2 double digit seeds to make the Final 4.  One is kinda nuts, but might happen – and you would for sure be in great shape if it does.  Two in the Final 4 usually means you are going to get killed.  One of those teams is probably going out in the first round and you are going to lose a ton of points to the field.  It’s kind of a tough strategy to pull off, and I’m not sure the risk/reward works in your favor.

The next 5 people in terms of points gained in those two games are all in top 11 in regards to percent chances of winning.

Michelle L. started the day with a 7.25% chance of winning.  After the 34 points in those 2 Bowl games, she now has a 38.48% chance.

Adam E. started the day with a 5.53% chance of winning.  After the 30 points in those 2 Bowl games, he now has a 6.54% chance.

Otis L. started the day with a 0.16% chance of winning.  After the 27 points in those 2 Bowl games, he now has a 1.07% chance.

Brian K. started the day with a 0.75% chance of winning.  After the 26 points in those 2 Bowl games, he now has a 1.18% chance.

Eric K. started the day with a 6.36% chance of winning.  After the 25 points in those 2 Bowl games, he now has a 7.42% chance.

So, it’s not perfect, and to be honest not everyone on the above list won both games, but they are all still alive and they all improved their chances today.

Here are the points standings

1. Michelle L.: 555 (-174)

2. Mark B.: 519 (-203)

3. Jim W.: 510 (-187)

4. Pete J. #1: 500 (-236)

5. Otis L.: 496 (-243)

6. Brian K.: 495 (-228)

7. Rich F.: 489 (-237)

8. Hutch H.: 483 (-261)

9. Adam E.: 478 (-191)

10. Pete J. #2: 477 (-259)

11. Steve D.: 475 (-261)

12. CAAT 3: 468 (-199)

13. Scott H. #1: 468 (-236)

14. Scott H. #2: 467 (-215)

15. Marc R. #2: 466 (-275)

16. Dylan B.: 465 (-212)

17. Emily T.: 464 (-231)

18. Matt M.: 459 (-218)

19. Harrell R. #2: 457 (-260)

20. Paul K.: 456 (-205)

21. Andrew Du.: 455 (-196)

22. Harrell R. #1: 455 (-262)

23. Ally H.: 449 (-231)

24. CAAT 4: 448 (-217)

25. CAAT 1: 447 (-220)

26. Eric K.: 446 (-178)

27. Larry G.: 446 (-236)

28. Kylar G.: 446 (-288)

29. Mike N.: 445 (-268)

30. Mike W.: 432 (-184)

31. CAAT 5: 431 (-220)

32. Dan E.: 429 (-210)

33. Matt N.: 429 (-269)

34. Marc R. #1: 426 (-206)

35. Brent E. #2: 423 (-229)

36. Quinn 1130: 421 (-290)

37. Kylee T.: 418 (-266)

38. CAAT 2: 416 (-279)

39. Jay H. #1: 413 (-256)

39. Jay H. #2: 413 (-256)

41. Grant F.: 413 (-285)

42. Ryan W.: 411 (-228)

43. Hurley 357: 406 (-264)

44. Hero R.: 399 (-341)

45. Brett G.: 395 (-301)

46. Dan D.: 395 (-302)

47. Dave M.: 388 (-252)

48. Vincent W.: 387 (-259)

49. Brent E. #1: 385 (-267)

50. Brad R.: 381 (-294)

51. Brett W.: 379 (-263)

52. Fr. Guido S. #1: 367 (-309)

53. Josiah T.: 361 (-333)

54. Mason A.: 359 (-248)

55. Fr. Guido S. #2: 357 (-369)

56. Tim N.: 343 (-257)

57. Dustin B.: 342 (-353)

58. Peter F.: 339 (-287)

59. Mike S.: 339 (-300)

60. Klei R.: 304 (-361)

61. Becky H.: 299 (-357)

62. Miela 314: 293 (-396)

63. Baily T.: 284 (-337)

64. Jason S.: 212 (-379)

65. Dennis R.: 193 (-460)

66. Christa M.: 183 (-405)

…and the matrix:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Michelle L.	38.4766%	17.5456%	13.0534%
Jim W.	14.6484%	14.1276%	8.5612%
Mark B.	9.7656%	13.1510%	11.2956%
Adam E.	6.5430%	6.4128%	7.0964%
Eric K.	7.4219%	6.9336%	4.7852%
Pete J. #1	1.1719%	4.9805%	6.2500%
CAAT 5	4.2969%	3.1250%	4.7852%
Mike W.	3.8086%	3.1901%	4.3620%
Otis L.	1.0742%	4.2643%	5.0456%
CAAT 3	1.3672%	4.3945%	3.8086%
Brian K.	1.1719%	2.9948%	3.0924%
Dylan B.	Clemson	2.3438%	4.8828%
CAAT 4	2.1484%	2.2461%	2.5391%
Andrew Du.	2.1484%	1.2370%	3.4505%
Steve D.	2.6367%	1.5625%	1.5625%
Paul K.	1.1719%	2.0182%	2.3763%
Ally H.	Clemson	2.4414%	2.5391%
Brent E. #2	0.1953%	1.1719%	2.0508%
Pete J. #2	0.4883%	1.0742%	1.3672%
Scott H. #2	Clemson	1.8555%	1.0742%
Matt M.	0.1953%	0.7813%	1.7578%
Dan E.	0.4883%	0.8789%	0.7813%
Emily T.	0.1953%	0.2930%	1.1719%
Marc R. #1	0.3906%	0.3906%	0.8789%
Vincent W.	Clemson	0.3906%	0.4883%
CAAT 1	Initial	Clemson	0.4883%
Kylee T.	0.1953%	Wyoming	0.2604%
Mike N.	So. Car.	Clemson	0.1953%
Tim N.	Wyoming	0.1953%	Clemson
Baily T.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
Becky H.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Brad R.	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
Brent E. #1	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
Brett G.	Initial	UCLA	So. Car.
Brett W.	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
CAAT 2	Initial	Syracuse	Texas
Christa M.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
Dan D.	Wyoming	Wyoming	Wyoming
Dave M.	Texas	UCLA	UCLA
Dennis R.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dustin B.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Fr. Guido S. #1	Oklahoma	UCLA	UCLA
Fr. Guido S. #2	Initial	Initial	Initial
Grant F.	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
Harrell R. #1	Texas	NC State	UCLA
Harrell R. #2	UCLA	UCLA	So. Car.
Hero R.	Clemson	So. Car.	Clemson
Hurley 357	Texas	Texas	NC State
Hutch H.	Initial	Texas	Texas
Jason S.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Jay H. #1	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
Jay H. #2	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
Josiah T.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Klei R.	Oklahoma	NC State	NC State
Kylar G.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Oklahoma
Larry G.	UCLA	Wyoming	Wyoming
Marc R. #2	Initial	NC State	UCLA
Mason A.	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
Matt N.	Initial	Syracuse	Oklahoma
Miela 314	Initial	Initial	Initial
Mike S.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
Peter F.	Wyoming	UCLA	Wyoming
Quinn 1130	Initial	Initial	Texas
Rich F.	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson
Ryan W.	Initial	Clemson	Clemson
Scott H. #1	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson

There are 4 games tomorrow, but they did us a favor and staggered them in a 2-1-1 format.  Therefore, I am going to start with the first two games, and then update between games.

Music City Bowl

Vegas Line: Iowa -2.5

Median Pick: Kentucky for 1 point

Picks for Iowa: 31 (average pick: 18.16 points)

Picks for Kentucky: 35 (average pick: 18.23 points)

Eliminations if Iowa wins:

	Pick	Points
Andrew Du. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Kentucky	14
Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Kentucky	31
CAAT 1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	1
CAAT 4 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Kentucky	31
Dan E. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	26
Kylee T. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	23
Matt M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Iowa	9
Mike W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Kentucky	26
Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Kentucky	21
Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Kentucky	21
Vincent W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Kentucky	26

Eliminations if Kentucky wins:

	Pick	Points
Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Iowa	41
Emily T. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Iowa	27
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Iowa	21
Mike N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Iowa	28
Otis L. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Iowa	14
Paul K. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Iowa	19
Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Iowa	17
Tim N. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Iowa	29

Sugar Bowl

Vegas Line: Alabama -6

Median Pick: Alabama for 29

Picks for Alabama: 55 (average pick: 29.13 points)

Picks for Kansas State: 11 (average pick: 15.09 points)

Eliminations of Alabama wins:

	Pick	Points
CAAT 4 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Kansas State	30
Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Alabama	2
Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Alabama	2

Eliminations if Kentucky wins:

	Pick	Points
Andrew Du. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Alabama	27
Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Alabama	39
CAAT 1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Alabama	41
CAAT 3 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Alabama	41
Dan E. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Alabama	40
Emily T. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Alabama	35
Kylee T. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.	Alabama	37
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Alabama	22
Matt M. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Alabama	36
Mike N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Alabama	41
Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Alabama	31
Tim N. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Alabama	30
Vincent W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Alabama	40

I really love when people have to root against the team they picked to win to stay alive.  It looks like that is going to happen a few times tomorrow morning.  It’s a lot different than the March Madness pool where the points are fixed for each game.  In that pool, you have to worry about someone else going further than you.  In this, everyone is alive for points in evert game.  It’s just how many that is the question.  That is harder to know just looking at a table or a bracket.

Well, good luck if you are still alive!!!