Opening Probabilities and Pinstripe Bowl eliminations.

 Good morning.  As many of you will notice, I didn’t send anything out last night about the games.  That is largely because my computer was tied up after the late game figuring out the probabilities of getting 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd place.  It took a little longer this season because unlike March Madness, which has 2^15 ways to play out, there were 2^17 ways this pool can play out.  Those extra scenarios take mean that it takes me about 4X as long to calculate anything.  What with the late game ending pretty late, that means I wasn’t able to finish until this morning.

So, for those that aren’t familiar with the pool, the way it will go from here on out is like this: I will still keep track of points, since that is how we determine the winner, but I’ll mostly be sending out updates to the probabilities of winning.  This is more meaningful because even though you may have amassed a lot of points, or still have a lot of points on the table, you may not actually have a path to winning the pool.  For example, if I and someone else picked exactly the same games for the same points from here on, but that other person already has more points than me, I am mathematically eliminated from 1^st place.  I can probably still get 2^nd, but my chances for 1^st are 0.

So, here are the points totals currently:

1. Michelle L.: 429 (-142)

2. Jim W.: 428 (-138)

3. Mark B.: 413 (-141)

4. Pete J. #1: 412 (-161)

5. Emily T.: 411 (-125)

6. Scott H. #2: 405 (-134)

7. Hutch H.: 405 (-181)

8. Rich F.: 404 (-164)

9. Marc R. #2: 393 (-201)

10. Steve D.: 391 (-158)

11. Otis L.: 390 (-179)

12. Pete J. #2: 389 (-184)

13. Kylee T.: 384 (-156)

14. Ally H.: 384 (-165)

15. Harrell R. #1: 382 (-175)

16. Brian K.: 381 (-161)

17. Andrew Du.: 378 (-122)

18. Larry G.: 378 (-153)

19. CAAT 3: 376 (-128)

20. Harrell R. #2: 375 (-182)

21. Dylan B.: 374 (-166)

22. Kylar G.: 373 (-227)

23. Scott H. #1: 368 (-155)

24. Dan E.: 365 (-83)

25. Mike W.: 359 (-103)

26. CAAT 5: 355 (-149)

26. CAAT 1: 355 (-149)

28. Matt N.: 355 (-204)

29. Jay H. #1: 354 (-159)

29. Jay H. #2: 354 (-159)

31. Grant F.: 354 (-210)

32. Mike N.: 353 (-176)

33. CAAT 4: 351 (-146)

34. Matt M.: 348 (-154)

35. Adam E.: 341 (-136)

36. Marc R. #1: 333 (-108)

37. CAAT 2: 333 (-171)

38. Eric K.: 328 (-100)

39. Paul K.: 326 (-150)

40. Hero R.: 320 (-210)

41. Mike S.: 314 (-178)

42. Brett G.: 313 (-184)

43. Hurley 357: 310 (-206)

44. Brett W.: 306 (-179)

45. Josiah T.: 304 (-234)

46. Brent E. #2: 300 (-149)

47. Brad R.: 299 (-235)

48. Dave M.: 294 (-160)

49. Vincent W.: 291 (-214)

50. Ryan W.: 283 (-170)

51. Dan D.: 283 (-190)

52. Fr. Guido S. #1: 278 (-199)

53. Fr. Guido S. #2: 277 (-257)

54. Quinn 1130: 273 (-218)

55. Mason A.: 267 (-161)

56. Brent E. #1: 259 (-190)

57. Miela 314: 251 (-343)

58. Peter F.: 242 (-176)

59. Dustin B.: 234 (-286)

60. Klei R.: 225 (-260)

61. Baily T.: 218 (-149)

62. Becky H.: 212 (-304)

63. Tim N.: 187 (-155)

64. Jason S.: 159 (-236)

65. Christa M.: 150 (-185)

66. Dennis R.: 130 (-360)

 

OK, on to the probabilities!  Those who have been in pools before should be familiar with the matrix.  There will be three columns after each entry.  The percentage listed there are the probability of you winning that particular place.  For example, my row looks like this:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Klei R.	0.0145%	0.0174%	0.0353%

This means that I have about 1/100^th of a percent chance of getting 1^st place.  I have a slightly better chance of getting 2^nd and an even better chance of getting third place.  None of them are good, mind you, but as long as you have a percentage, you have a path to get one of the places.  Once you are mathematically eliminated from a place, I will no longer put a number, but I’ll color the cell red and put in the team that lost to knock you out of that place.

Speaking of which, there are only 7 people that eliminated from all payouts.  Pour one out for these people:

Becky H.

Dennis R.

Dustin B.

Fr. Guido S. #2

Jason S.

Josiah T.

Miela 314

Better luck next year (or in the March Madness Tournament).  Here’s the matrix:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Michelle L.	12.3631%	7.8687%	6.6957%
Jim W.	10.3673%	9.0425%	7.2282%
Dan E.	10.1206%	7.5746%	6.4988%
Mark B.	7.0966%	7.6378%	6.7284%
Mike W.	9.3739%	6.2092%	5.0873%
Emily T.	5.7585%	6.9396%	7.4574%
Eric K.	5.1130%	4.8155%	4.0073%
Scott H. #2	3.6573%	4.1113%	4.6541%
Steve D.	5.0432%	3.5762%	3.3183%
Pete J. #1	3.7996%	3.7336%	3.7657%
CAAT 5	3.7378%	3.8767%	3.2271%
Otis L.	2.8564%	3.6395%	3.2514%
Adam E.	2.7262%	2.9965%	3.2166%
Ally H.	2.2308%	3.0958%	3.1029%
Andrew Du.	1.4556%	2.5015%	3.4960%
CAAT 3	0.7698%	2.8559%	3.7565%
Kylee T.	1.8955%	2.6550%	2.7755%
Marc R. #1	1.6624%	2.0568%	2.2588%
Brian K.	1.2938%	2.1823%	2.4006%
CAAT 4	1.3757%	2.2027%	2.2658%
Hero R.	2.6428%	1.5553%	1.4365%
Pete J. #2	0.7398%	1.3738%	1.6425%
Brent E. #2	0.7904%	1.2300%	1.2861%
Larry G.	0.3507%	0.8209%	1.2337%
Dylan B.	0.1976%	0.7234%	1.3026%
Dan D.	0.6332%	0.7079%	0.7034%
Mike N.	0.1630%	0.7343%	1.0773%
Matt M.	0.2628%	0.5734%	0.8081%
Hurley 357	0.3525%	0.4197%	0.5732%
Fr. Guido S. #1	0.3586%	0.4415%	0.4943%
Paul K.	0.2070%	0.3366%	0.5744%
Vincent W.	0.2126%	0.2967%	0.4602%
CAAT 1	Initial	0.0749%	0.7060%
Rich F.	0.0163%	0.1731%	0.4503%
Harrell R. #1	0.0420%	0.1263%	0.2553%
Brett W.	0.0359%	0.1101%	0.2282%
Tim N.	0.0720%	0.0907%	0.1090%
Harrell R. #2	0.0140%	0.0654%	0.1598%
Baily T.	0.0113%	0.0781%	0.1424%
Mason A.	0.0580%	0.0568%	0.1119%
Jay H. #1	0.0178%	0.0695%	0.1390%
Jay H. #2	0.0178%	0.0695%	0.1390%
Mike S.	0.0212%	0.0571%	0.1044%
Christa M.	0.0411%	0.0599%	0.0814%
Scott H. #1	0.0023%	0.0315%	0.1451%
Kylar G.	0.0053%	0.0304%	0.0769%
Dave M.	0.0128%	0.0315%	0.0613%
Grant F.	0.0031%	0.0223%	0.0559%
Klei R.	0.0145%	0.0174%	0.0353%
Brent E. #1	0.0038%	0.0179%	0.0384%
Peter F.	0.0027%	0.0153%	0.0388%
Hutch H.	Initial	0.0036%	0.0506%
Matt N.	Initial	0.0034%	0.0271%
Marc R. #2	Initial	0.0034%	0.0229%
Brett G.	Initial	0.0038%	0.0206%
CAAT 2	Initial	0.0015%	0.0053%
Ryan W.	Initial	0.0011%	0.0046%
Quinn 1130	Initial	Initial	0.0038%
Brad R.	Initial	Initial	0.0019%
Becky H.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dennis R.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dustin B.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Fr. Guido S. #2	Initial	Initial	Initial
Jason S.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Josiah T.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Miela 314	Initial	Initial	Initial

Notice that CAAT 1 is dead for 1^st, but alive for 2^nd and 3^rd.  I think that’s because a lot of the CAAT’s entries are so similar that if CAAT 1 maxes out, one of the other CAAT entries would win.

But wait, there’s more.  Because I have all this data, I can determine who will be knocked out in the various bowl games.  I’ll start with the next one:

Pinstripe Bowl

Vegas Line: Minnesota -10.5

Median Pick: Minnesota for 27.5 points

Picks for Minnesota: 54 (average points: 26.94)

Picks for Syracuse: 12 (average points: 15.58)

Eliminations if Minnesota wins:

Baily T. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

CAAT 2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Christa M. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Kylar G. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Eliminations if Syracuse wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Brett G. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Grant F. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Peter F. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Quinn 1130 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Rich F. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Anyone who wants to see the score sheet I’ve been using, as well as who everyone picked in the pool, follow this link:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R7aROd60NpTNzDogVQQQJdYbWpCLlWxf/view?usp=share_link

If you don’t see your name as an elimination, congratulations!  That means you can’t be eliminated in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Good Luck!!!!!