Heading into the homestretch edition

 I did it.  I more or less watched an entire bowl game from start to finish.  Since it’s kind of my last day off from work, I decided to chill on the couch and watch the one and only bowl game today.  Not the best use of my time, but considering that I dozed off a few times during the game, it was not entirely wasted.  Sleeping is important when you get to be my age, and naps are a welcome part of the of the day.

As for the actual game, I’m not sure it was all that great.  Bowling Green’s starting QB got knocked out of the game in the first quarter on a late hit out of bounds, and they were down 2 TD’s in the first half.  It makes me think that the luke-warm reception we were giving Bowling Green was pretty deserved.  It also drove yet another nail into my entry’s coffin, as I went hard on all the MAC teams.

I also have a second entry.  One that I can now pin my hopes to since it looks like it’s doing pretty well.  I entered a sheet under my cat Hero’s name.  The methodology I used there was 100% random.  I flipped a coin for each game to determine if I was going to pick Team A or Team B.  Then I used a random number generator to assign points to each game.  I honestly don’t know what games it has, but I do see that it’s in 11th in net points, so it must be doing OK.  Ideally, if we ran this bowl season 100 times, it should probably be last on average, because theoretically everyone picking should know something more than the nothing that a random picking bot knows.  Unfortunately, N=1 in this little experiment, so I’m curious how far my cat can take me.  Plus, she was sitting on my lap for the entirety of the game, and like me, was asleep for a percentage of it (for her it was about 90-95%).

Here are the updated standings:

1. Michelle L.: 310 (-95)

2. CAAT 3: 281 (-29)

3. Mark B.: 277 (-128)

4. Hutch H.: 276 (-143)

5. Steve D.: 272 (-111)

6. Marc R. #2: 270 (-164)

7. Kylee T.: 268 (-94)

8. Dylan B.: 268 (-133)

9. Jim W.: 266 (-133)

10. Harrell R. #1: 264 (-130)

11. Rich F.: 263 (-131)

12. Kylar G.: 262 (-135)

13. CAAT 5: 260 (-50)

13. CAAT 1: 260 (-50)

15. Andrew Du.: 258 (-65)

16. Pete J. #1: 255 (-116)

17. Harrell R. #2: 255 (-139)

18. Hero R.: 254 (-106)

19. Grant F.: 254 (-135)

20. Jay H. #1: 253 (-107)

20. Jay H. #2: 253 (-107)

22. Otis L.: 252 (-112)

23. Pete J. #2: 249 (-122)

24. Mike S.: 248 (-148)

25. Brad R.: 243 (-107)

26. Scott H. #2: 243 (-110)

27. Scott H. #1: 240 (-136)

28. CAAT 2: 238 (-93)

29. Larry G.: 238 (-122)

30. CAAT 4: 233 (-70)

31. Ally H.: 233 (-127)

32. Dan E.: 228 (-59)

33. Matt M.: 227 (-129)

34. Matt N.: 227 (-144)

35. Brian K.: 225 (-122)

36. Mike N.: 224 (-104)

37. Hurley 357: 221 (-87)

38. Mike W.: 219 (-75)

39. Emily T.: 213 (-100)

40. Dave M.: 212 (-141)

41. Eric K.: 211 (-83)

42. Marc R. #1: 204 (-67)

43. Fr. Guido S. #2: 204 (-112)

44. Josiah T.: 201 (-120)

45. Dan D.: 200 (-98)

46. Brett G.: 200 (-131)

47. Paul K.: 191 (-114)

48. Miela 314: 189 (-178)

49. Brett W.: 188 (-104)

50. Ryan W.: 182 (-99)

51. Adam E.: 177 (-96)

52. Fr. Guido S. #1: 165 (-128)

53. Klei R.: 150 (-173)

54. Mason A.: 147 (-122)

55. Becky H.: 136 (-199)

56. Vincent W.: 131 (-214)

57. Brent E. #2: 128 (-106)

58. Dustin B.: 118 (-202)

59. Peter F.: 117 (-122)

60. Baily T.: 112 (-90)

61. Quinn 1130: 110 (-179)

62. Brent E. #1: 93 (-141)

63. Jason S.: 86 (-134)

64. Tim N.: 85 (-70)

65. Christa M.: 83 (-76)

66. Dennis R.: 83 (-228)

…and net points:

1. CAAT 3: 252

2. Michelle L.: 215

3. CAAT 5: 210

3. CAAT 1: 210

5. Andrew Du.: 193

6. Kylee T.: 174

7. Dan E.: 169

8. CAAT 4: 163

9. Steve D.: 161

10. Mark B.: 149

11. Hero R.: 148

12. Jay H. #1: 146

12. Jay H. #2: 146

14. CAAT 2: 145

15. Mike W.: 144

16. Otis L.: 140

17. Pete J. #1: 139

18. Marc R. #1: 137

19. Brad R.: 136

20. Dylan B.: 135

21. Harrell R. #1: 134

21. Hurley 357: 134

23. Hutch H.: 133

23. Jim W.: 133

23. Scott H. #2: 133

26. Rich F.: 132

27. Eric K.: 128

28. Kylar G.: 127

28. Pete J. #2: 127

30. Mike N.: 120

31. Grant F.: 119

32. Harrell R. #2: 116

32. Larry G.: 116

34. Emily T.: 113

35. Marc R. #2: 106

35. Ally H.: 106

37. Scott H. #1: 104

38. Brian K.: 103

39. Dan D.: 102

40. Mike S.: 100

41. Matt M.: 98

42. Fr. Guido S. #2: 92

43. Brett W.: 84

44. Matt N.: 83

44. Ryan W.: 83

46. Josiah T.: 81

46. Adam E.: 81

48. Paul K.: 77

49. Dave M.: 71

50. Brett G.: 69

51. Fr. Guido S. #1: 37

52. Mason A.: 25

53. Brent E. #2: 22

53. Baily T.: 22

55. Tim N.: 15

56. Miela 314: 11

57. Christa M.: 7

58. Peter F.: -5

59. Klei R.: -23

60. Brent E. #1: -48

60. Jason S.: -48

62. Becky H.: -63

63. Quinn 1130: -69

64. Vincent W.: -83

65. Dustin B.: -84

66. Dennis R.: -145

Fun fact: no one has even used half of the available points yet.  The person that has used the most points so far is Marc R. #2 (434 points – 48.44%), which is why he is in 6th in points, but 35th in net points.

Starting tomorrow, we have 3-4 bowl games every day, and I should be able to figure out eliminations / probabilities after Wednesday’s games.  I’m looking forward to that.  There is a lot to be decided between now and then.

Camellia Bowl

Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -3.5

Median Pick: Georgia Southern for 15

Picks for Georgia Southern: 52 (average points: 19.62)

Picks for Buffalo: 14 (average points: 16.79)

 

Going through the games tomorrow, it seems like there are two games everyone thinks will be blowouts and two games that people think will be close.  This looks like the first of the close games.  I know nothing about either team, but I do kn ow that if was a fan of the University at Buffalo, I would be especially excited about playing wherever this game is being played.  Anything to get me out of Buffalo.  The real trick will be whether or not they can fly back in to Buffalo after the game is over.  Yikes….

First Responder Bowl

Vegas Line: Memphis -7.5

Median Pick: Memphis for 27 points

Picks for Memphis: 56 (average points: 26.20)

Picks for Utah State: 10 (average points: 23.90)

 

People must be expecting a blowout in this one.  It is the game with the most points wagered on it today.  I know very little about these teams, but I know it will probably be on around lunch time, so I might turn it on then.  As for me, I have to go back to work tomorrow, so I’ll miss a lot of the excitement here.

Birmingham Bowl

Vegas Line: East Carolina -7.5

Median Pick: East Carolina for 24.5 points

Picks for East Carolina: 56 (average points: 25.52)

Picks for Coastal Carolina: 10 (average points: 17.60)

 

This is the second of the potential blowouts tomorrow.  It also features two teams named “Carolina”, neither of which is actual state.  That’s fun.  Also, I give this bowl game credit for not getting too cute with it’s name.  Where is this game going to be played? Birmingham…  Great, let’s name it the Birmingham Bowl.  Maybe there’s nothing particular about the city of Birmingham to name a bowl game after like the Peach Bowl in Atlanta or the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa.  Now that I look, there are more than a few like this: Bahamas, Myrtle Beach, Las Vegas, Hawai’i, Frisco, Texas, Arizona, New Orleans, Boca Raton and New Mexico Bowls are all just named after the place they are played.  I guess it’s more common than I thought. 

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Vegas Line: Wisconsin -3.5

Median Pick: Wisconsin for 2.5 points

Picks for Wisconsin: 34 (average points: 15.35)

Picks for Oklahoma State: 32 (average points: 18.50)

 

The last game of the quadruple-header.  I guess is they have to put 4 games on in a day, I’m glad they are doing it sequentially.  It sucks pretty hard when multiple games are more or less being played at the same time – especially when I have to calculate probabilities.  It’s not fun when some combination of outcomes knocks people out, but not one individual game.  Anyway, this one looks like it’s really going to separate the field.  Pretty even on both sides.  Maybe I’ll even watch part of this one….

Good luck everyone!!!!