Recap of the day

 We started the day with only 7 people completely eliminated, and after 3 games today, we lost a total of 18.  That means that 48 entries are still alive with 14 games to go.  There are 5 games tomorrow, so it will be a little hard to send out eliminations.  I think what I’ll do is send out the eliminations for the first game tonight, and then after the first game tomorrow, I’ll send the eliminations for the next 3, since they seem to overlap.  It looks like a gap before the last game, so I’ll send something out then as well.  The downside of that is that there could be a combination of outcomes that knock people out that aren’t evident in a single game.  It will be important to pay attention to the matrix when I send it out to see if you are still alive.

But today we had three games.  21 people managed to go 3/3.  I’m guessing most of those people are still alive for something.  The big winners of the day were Tim N. (+103 points) and Paul K. (+101 points).  I managed to go 3/3, but somehow managed to get eliminated for 1^st place.  That’s the cost of doing so bad early on.  Only Jason S. went 0/3, but I’m going to guess he is no longer reading this, as he was already knocked out of all contention before the day even started.

I feel like I need to point out the strange case of Hutch H.  He is currently in 4^th place in points, but compliments of Texas losing, he is now eliminated from all 3 payouts.  That seems amazing given how many games are left and where he is.  However, the math checks out.  There is no path for him to finish in the top 3 spots.  I would argue this type of info is what makes my pool better than everyone else’s.  On the flip side, Peter F. is in 60^th place right now in points, but could claim any of the 3 payouts.  It’s unlikely, but there is a path.

Here are the points standings:

1. Jim W.: 485 (-149)

2. Pete J. #1: 478 (-180)

3. Pete J. #2: 474 (-184)

4. Hutch H.: 472 (-204)

5. Mark B.: 470 (-155)

6. Michelle L.: 470 (-174)

7. Rich F.: 470 (-185)

8. Steve D.: 468 (-158)

9. Scott H. #2: 467 (-134)

10. Emily T.: 464 (-141)

11. Marc R. #2: 459 (-201)

12. Dylan B.: 451 (-166)

13. Harrell R. #1: 451 (-195)

14. Brian K.: 445 (-173)

15. Harrell R. #2: 444 (-202)

16. Andrew Du.: 428 (-145)

17. Paul K.: 427 (-150)

18. Matt M.: 426 (-154)

19. CAAT 3: 425 (-133)

20. Otis L.: 425 (-217)

21. Mike N.: 423 (-203)

22. Larry G.: 422 (-172)

23. Scott H. #1: 422 (-179)

24. Ally H.: 414 (-165)

25. Jay H. #1: 413 (-159)

25. Jay H. #2: 413 (-159)

27. Adam E.: 409 (-154)

28. Kylee T.: 408 (-201)

29. Grant F.: 408 (-210)

30. Marc R. #1: 407 (-108)

31. CAAT 4: 405 (-151)

32. CAAT 5: 404 (-154)

32. CAAT 1: 404 (-154)

34. Matt N.: 404 (-204)

35. Mike W.: 400 (-116)

36. Eric K.: 399 (-100)

37. Brett G.: 395 (-184)

38. Dan E.: 384 (-127)

39. CAAT 2: 382 (-176)

40. Kylar G.: 382 (-268)

41. Brett W.: 379 (-179)

42. Dave M.: 361 (-197)

43. Brad R.: 358 (-235)

44. Ryan W.: 354 (-170)

45. Fr. Guido S. #2: 354 (-262)

46. Quinn 1130: 351 (-254)

47. Hero R.: 348 (-276)

48. Dan D.: 347 (-218)

49. Brent E. #2: 338 (-187)

50. Mason A.: 337 (-182)

51. Hurley 357: 335 (-243)

52. Josiah T.: 331 (-285)

53. Vincent W.: 329 (-227)

54. Mike S.: 328 (-199)

55. Fr. Guido S. #1: 322 (-237)

56. Dustin B.: 310 (-286)

57. Brent E. #1: 298 (-227)

58. Miela 314: 291 (-362)

59. Tim N.: 290 (-155)

60. Peter F.: 290 (-178)

61. Becky H.: 269 (-317)

62. Klei R.: 263 (-260)

63. Baily T.: 250 (-207)

64. Christa M.: 183 (-253)

65. Dennis R.: 173 (-374)

66. Jason S.: 159 (-307)

…and the matrix:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Jim W.	11.9253%	10.4299%	7.6274%
Mark B.	9.2285%	8.8562%	6.6182%
Eric K.	9.3201%	7.3558%	5.4545%
Steve D.	9.6018%	5.5038%	5.2068%
Emily T.	4.2714%	7.1279%	7.7037%
Scott H. #2	6.4952%	5.8131%	6.5038%
Mike W.	8.1065%	5.8385%	4.8314%
Michelle L.	6.9438%	5.0578%	4.8045%
Pete J. #1	5.2195%	3.8767%	4.0365%
Marc R. #1	3.7160%	4.1697%	4.2511%
CAAT 5	4.6092%	3.8951%	3.6011%
Adam E.	4.5268%	3.9032%	3.6133%
Pete J. #2	2.6459%	3.9124%	4.0883%
CAAT 3	1.7619%	3.6779%	4.1570%
Brian K.	1.9653%	3.0838%	3.1662%
Dylan B.	0.8189%	2.6408%	3.8106%
CAAT 4	2.2400%	2.5899%	2.4251%
Ally H.	1.3051%	1.9124%	2.4241%
Matt M.	0.9064%	1.6332%	2.1662%
Otis L.	0.8016%	1.6968%	1.5951%
Andrew Du.	0.8830%	1.1963%	1.9175%
Dan E.	0.8382%	1.3112%	1.7639%
Paul K.	0.7222%	1.1261%	1.6418%
Mike N.	0.1546%	0.7243%	1.1210%
CAAT 1	Initial	0.2543%	1.0925%
Tim N.	0.2777%	0.2930%	0.4120%
Brent E. #2	0.1770%	0.3082%	0.4059%
Brett W.	0.0671%	0.3021%	0.4690%
Dan D.	0.1007%	0.2289%	0.3082%
Larry G.	0.0183%	0.1851%	0.4293%
Vincent W.	0.0824%	0.1587%	0.2380%
Kylee T.	0.0427%	0.1526%	0.2248%
Jay H. #1	0.0376%	0.1322%	0.2482%
Jay H. #2	0.0376%	0.1322%	0.2482%
Mason A.	0.1129%	0.0885%	0.1709%
Rich F.	0.0061%	0.0844%	0.2797%
Harrell R. #1	Texas	0.0916%	0.2187%
Hero R.	0.0153%	0.1038%	0.1495%
Harrell R. #2	0.0020%	0.0356%	0.1546%
Brett G.	Initial	0.0305%	0.1343%
Peter F.	0.0092%	0.0122%	0.0671%
Marc R. #2	Initial	0.0061%	0.0763%
Scott H. #1	0.0061%	0.0183%	0.0458%
Klei R.	Oklahoma	0.0183%	0.0244%
Fr. Guido S. #1	Oklahoma	0.0092%	0.0275%
Ryan W.	Initial	0.0092%	0.0244%
Hurley 357	Texas	Texas	0.0183%
Dave M.	Texas	0.0122%	0.0031%
Baily T.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
Becky H.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Brad R.	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
Brent E. #1	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
CAAT 2	Initial	Syracuse	Texas
Christa M.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
Dennis R.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dustin B.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Fr. Guido S. #2	Initial	Initial	Initial
Grant F.	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
Hutch H.	Initial	Texas	Texas
Jason S.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Josiah T.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Kylar G.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Oklahoma
Matt N.	Initial	Syracuse	Oklahoma
Miela 314	Initial	Initial	Initial
Mike S.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
Quinn 1130	Initial	Initial	Texas

  

Let’s look at the opening game tomorrow:

Vegas Line: Pick ‘Em

Median Pick: NC State for 4.5 points

Picks for NC State: 39 (average points: 15.69)

Picks for Maryland: 27 (average points: 14.63)

If NC State wins:

	Team	Pick
Dave M. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	NC State	1
Harrell R. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Maryland	9
Hero R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	NC State	1
Peter F. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Maryland	23
Rich F. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Maryland	6
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Maryland	6
Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Maryland	10
Vincent W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Maryland	39

If Maryland wins:

Team	Team	Pick
Harrell R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	NC State	9
Hurley 357 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	NC State	16
Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	NC State	19
Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	NC State	19
Klei R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	NC State	38
Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	NC State	8

Wow.  Harrell split his picks and now it looks like doing that will cost him at least one of them.  That’s kind of fun.  I also think it’s fun when people need to cheer against teams they picked in order to stay alive.  Hero R. and Dave M. both took NC State, but now need them to lose.  The reason is because the 1 point they would get doesn’t do much for them, but people ahead of them in the standings would lose more.  I wish there were more times between games.  I’d do so much more analysis.  There’s so much data here to sift through….

Good luck!!!!