Finally, the semi-finals edition.

 Maybe it’s a good thing those games were played first thing in the morning.  I don’t think there was any drama even by halftime of those games.  The only drama I could find was determining which game ended first, so that I could flag the correct team losing knocking people out.

It looks like Michelle L. has a stranglehold on the pool, as she currently has a 82.81% chance to win something, and better than a 50/50 chance to win it all.  Jim W. was hanging around the top of the standings, but the Kansas State pick really took a lot of wind out of those sails.  The good thing for him is that he was doing well prior to the Sugar Bowl, so that loss doesn’t entirely kill him.  Those are the kind of chances you kind of have to take though.  Sometimes they work, and other times they don’t.

Here are the points

1. Michelle L.: 598 (-174)

2. Mark B.: 551 (-203)

3. Otis L.: 541 (-243)

4. Jim W.: 534 (-213)

5. Emily T.: 526 (-231)

6. Scott H. #2: 515 (-215)

7. Mike N.: 514 (-268)

8. Adam E.: 513 (-214)

9. CAAT 3: 509 (-200)

10. Eric K.: 506 (-178)

12. Hutch H.: 506 (-261)

11. Rich F.: 506 (-237)

13. Paul K.: 504 (-205)

14. Matt M.: 504 (-218)

15. Pete J. #1: 502 (-257)

16. Scott H. #1: 501 (-240)

17. Brian K.: 498 (-228)

18. Kylar G.: 491 (-288)

19. Ally H.: 490 (-236)

20. CAAT 1: 488 (-221)

21. Larry G.: 488 (-236)

22. Andrew Du.: 482 (-210)

23. Dylan B.: 480 (-222)

24. Pete J. #2: 479 (-280)

25. Steve D.: 475 (-270)

26. Marc R. #2: 475 (-275)

27. CAAT 5: 472 (-221)

28. Mike W.: 470 (-210)

29. Marc R. #1: 469 (-206)

30. Dan E.: 469 (-236)

31. Harrell R. #2: 468 (-261)

32. Matt N.: 467 (-272)

33. Harrell R. #1: 466 (-263)

34. Brent E. #2: 462 (-260)

35. Hurley 357: 456 (-264)

36. Kylee T.: 455 (-289)

37. Dan D.: 454 (-302)

39. Quinn 1130: 451 (-300)

38. Ryan W.: 451 (-264)

40. CAAT 4: 448 (-278)

41. Jay H. #1: 442 (-271)

41. Jay H. #2: 442 (-271)

43. Brad R.: 437 (-294)

44. CAAT 2: 429 (-280)

46. Vincent W.: 427 (-285)

45. Dave M.: 427 (-270)

47. Brent E. #1: 424 (-298)

48. Hero R.: 422 (-350)

49. Fr. Guido S. #1: 419 (-309)

50. Grant F.: 417 (-287)

51. Brett G.: 410 (-319)

53. Dustin B.: 404 (-353)

52. Josiah T.: 404 (-333)

54. Tim N.: 402 (-257)

55. Mason A.: 394 (-271)

56. Mike S.: 391 (-300)

57. Fr. Guido S. #2: 387 (-391)

58. Brett W.: 379 (-317)

59. Peter F.: 363 (-323)

60. Becky H.: 326 (-365)

61. Baily T.: 324 (-365)

62. Miela 314: 315 (-406)

63. Klei R.: 304 (-425)

64. Jason S.: 248 (-417)

65. Dennis R.: 232 (-462)

66. Christa M.: 211 (-435)

..and the matrix (with Champion included):

Ranking	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Michelle L.: 424 (Michigan)	54.2969%	16.0156%	12.5000%
2. Mark B.: 348 (Ohio State)	10.9375%	16.4063%	12.5000%
3. Eric K.: 328 (Georgia)	18.7500%	9.7656%	5.8594%
9. Otis L.: 298 (Ohio State)	3.5156%	8.9844%	5.4688%
22. CAAT 5: 251 (TCU)	3.1250%	7.8125%	6.2500%
4. Jim W.: 321 (Georgia)	1.5625%	6.2500%	8.2031%
7. Adam E.: 299 (Ohio State)	0.7813%	4.6875%	9.7656%
5. CAAT 3: 309 (Georgia)	1.1719%	7.4219%	3.5156%
6. Scott H. #2: 300 (Michigan)	Clemson	7.4219%	3.5156%
7. Paul K.: 299 (Georgia)	3.9063%	3.9063%	1.5625%
18. Mike W.: 260 (Ohio State)	Kentucky	1.5625%	5.4688%
10. Emily T.: 295 (Georgia)	0.7813%	1.1719%	4.6875%
20. Ally H.: 254 (Georgia)	Clemson	1.9531%	1.9531%
11. Matt M.: 286 (Georgia)	Kentucky	0.7813%	3.1250%
24. Pete J. #1: 245 (Michigan)	Kentucky	2.3438%	1.5625%
12. Andrew Du.: 272 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	3.1250%
13. Brian K.: 270 (Georgia)	0.3906%	0.3906%	2.3438%
19. Dylan B.: 258 (Michigan)	Clemson	Kanas St.	3.1250%
16. Marc R. #1: 263 (Georgia)	0.7813%	1.5625%	0.7813%
31. Brent E. #2: 202 (Michigan)	Kentucky	Kentucky	1.9531%
28. Steve D.: 205 (TCU)	Kanas St.	0.7813%	0.7813%
47. Vincent W.: 142 (Michigan)	Clemson	Kentucky	1.1719%
23. Mike N.: 246 (Ohio State)	So. Car.	Clemson	0.7813%
45. Tim N.: 145 (Michigan)	Wyoming	0.7813%	Clemson
61. Baily T.: -41 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
60. Becky H.: -39 (Michigan)	Initial	Initial	Initial
46. Brad R.: 143 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
49. Brent E. #1: 126 (Georgia)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
52. Brett G.: 91 (Georgia)	Initial	UCLA	So. Car.
56. Brett W.: 62 (Georgia)	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
15. CAAT 1: 267 (Georgia)	Initial	Clemson	Kentucky
44. CAAT 2: 149 (Georgia)	Initial	Syracuse	Texas
39. CAAT 4: 170 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kanas St.
65. Christa M.: -224 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
42. Dan D.: 152 (Ohio State)	Wyoming	Wyoming	Wyoming
26. Dan E.: 233 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky
41. Dave M.: 157 (Georgia)	Texas	UCLA	UCLA
66. Dennis R.: -230 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
57. Dustin B.: 51 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
51. Fr. Guido S. #1: 110 (Michigan)	Oklahoma	UCLA	UCLA
59. Fr. Guido S. #2: -4 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
48. Grant F.: 130 (Georgia)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
29. Harrell R. #1: 203 (Georgia)	Texas	NC State	UCLA
27. Harrell R. #2: 207 (Georgia)	UCLA	UCLA	So. Car.
54. Hero R.: 72 (TCU)	Clemson	So. Car.	Clemson
35. Hurley 357: 192 (Georgia)	Texas	Texas	NC State
24. Hutch H.: 245 (Georgia)	Initial	Texas	Texas
64. Jason S.: -169 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
37. Jay H. #1: 171 (Georgia)	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
37. Jay H. #2: 171 (Georgia)	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
55. Josiah T.: 71 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
63. Klei R.: -121 (Michigan)	Oklahoma	NC State	NC State
29. Kylar G.: 203 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Oklahoma
40. Kylee T.: 166 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Wyoming	Kentucky
21. Larry G.: 252 (Georgia)	UCLA	Wyoming	Wyoming
32. Marc R. #2: 200 (Georgia)	Initial	NC State	UCLA
50. Mason A.: 123 (Georgia)	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
34. Matt N.: 195 (Georgia)	Initial	Syracuse	Oklahoma
62. Miela 314: -91 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
52. Mike S.: 91 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
33. Pete J. #2: 199 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kanas St.
58. Peter F.: 40 (Georgia)	Wyoming	UCLA	Wyoming
43. Quinn 1130: 151 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Texas
14. Rich F.: 269 (Georgia)	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson
36. Ryan W.: 187 (Georgia)	Initial	Clemson	Clemson
17. Scott H. #1: 261 (Georgia)	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson

We are on to the National Semi-Final games.  These are a little more important, since the 35 points for the Championship are contingent on who wins this game.  For example, if you put maximum points on Michigan to win this game and also to win the next, you could be out 77 points if they lose.

Here are the details:

Vegas Line: Michigan -7.5

Median Pick: Michigan for 28 points.

Picks for Michigan: 54 (average pick: 28.19 points)

Picks for TCU: 12 (average pick: 11.75 points)

Eliminations if Michigan Wins:

	Pick	Points
CAAT 5 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	TCU	34
Emily T. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	TCU	7
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Michigan	30
Matt M. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	TCU	4
Mike N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	TCU	1
Steve D. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	TCU	2

Eliminations if TCU Wins:

	Pick	Points
Adam E. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Michigan	34
Andrew Du. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Michigan	39
Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Michigan	26
Brian K. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Michigan	38
CAAT 3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Michigan	18
Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Michigan	39
Jim W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Michigan	17
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Michigan	30
Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Michigan	37
Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Michigan	37
Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Michigan	16
Tim N. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Michigan	37
Vincent W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Michigan	41

Fun fact, looking at the eliminations.  Marc R. #1 is going to lose one of the three available spots regardless of who wins.  If Michigan wins, he can no longer get 3^rd.  If TCU wins, he can’t get 1^st.  Interesting stuff….

Good Luck!!!!!