Only 2 days of games left

Good evening again.  It was a fun day of games.  It was kind of fun here at HQ seeing how the probabilities bounced around throughout the day.  There was a point after the first game, where it looked like Grant was going to run away with this thing (he had >40% chance of winning, everyone else was <15%), but then Memphis took a huge chunk of that away, so he actually finished with a lower probability than he had at the start of the day.

Before we get to that, Let's look at the gross points and net points:

1. Grant F.: 544 (-192)

2. Matt N.: 501 (-226)

3. Scott H. #1: 491 (-158)

4. Dylan B.: 490 (-254)

5. Mike W.: 488 (-216)

6. Mike S. #1: 484 (-245)

7. Jim W.: 480 (-277)

8. Mike S. #2: 478 (-291)

9. Joel S. #2: 473 (-258)

10. Michelle L. #2: 466 (-239)

11. Dustin B.: 459 (-186)

12. Kevin W.: 458 (-266)

13. Clucko the Chicken: 458 (-287)

14. Roth W.: 457 (-269)

15. Brad R.: 457 (-278)

16. Nikolajs B.: 456 (-174)

17. Scott H. #2: 453 (-215)

18. Klei - Consensus: 452 (-262)

19. Michelle L. #1: 450 (-258)

20. Ryan W.: 448 (-235)

21. Brent S.: 444 (-250)

22. Hal #2: 442 (-279)

23. Hutch H.: 441 (-277)

24. Brent E. #3: 437 (-301)

25. Damien R. #2: 436 (-287)

26. Pete J. #2: 436 (-296)

27. Pete J. #1: 435 (-297)

28. Tim N.: 430 (-301)

29. Adam E.: 422 (-271)

30. Klei R.: 420 (-283)

31. Brent E. #1: 415 (-305)

32. Hal #1: 412 (-309)

33. Becky H.: 405 (-272)

34. Myles G.: 392 (-268)

35. Jay H. #2: 391 (-347)

36. Joel S. #4: 390 (-264)

37. Brett W.: 383 (-291)

38. Nichole W.: 381 (-254)

39. Brent E. #2: 377 (-327)

40. Sanjay T.: 369 (-311)

41. Bartosz R. #1: 368 (-352)

42. Dan Dz.: 366 (-286)

43. Ben S. #1: 363 (-341)

44. Bartosz R. #2: 362 (-358)

45. Ben S. #2: 359 (-372)

46. Ally H.: 354 (-363)

47. Ben S. #3: 351 (-369)

48. Dan Du.: 346 (-360)

49. Jay H. #3: 342 (-303)

50. Damien R. #1: 336 (-422)

51. Joel S. #1: 334 (-296)

52. Joel S. #3: 325 (-395)

53. Jay H. #1: 323 (-307)

54. Marc R.: 319 (-334)

55. Sally R.: 305 (-414)

56. Joel S. #5: 304 (-326)

57. Ashley D.: 291 (-499)

58. Mindi W.: 234 (-495)

...and the net points:

1. Grant F.: 352

2. Scott H. #1: 333

3. Nikolajs B.: 282

4. Matt N.: 275

5. Dustin B.: 273

6. Mike W.: 272

7. Mike S. #1: 239

8. Scott H. #2: 238

9. Dylan B.: 236

10. Michelle L. #2: 227

11. Joel S. #2: 215

12. Ryan W.: 213

13. Jim W.: 203

14. Brent S.: 194

15. Kevin W.: 192

15. Michelle L. #1: 192

17. Klei - Consensus: 190

18. Roth W.: 188

19. Mike S. #2: 187

20. Brad R.: 179

21. Clucko the Chicken: 171

22. Hutch H.: 164

23. Hal #2: 163

24. Adam E.: 151

25. Damien R. #2: 149

26. Pete J. #2: 140

27. Pete J. #1: 138

28. Klei R.: 137

29. Brent E. #3: 136

30. Becky H.: 133

31. Tim N.: 129

32. Nichole W.: 127

33. Joel S. #4: 126

34. Myles G.: 124

35. Brent E. #1: 110

36. Hal #1: 103

37. Brett W.: 92

38. Dan Dz.: 80

39. Sanjay T.: 58

40. Brent E. #2: 50

41. Jay H. #2: 44

42. Jay H. #3: 39

43. Joel S. #1: 38

44. Ben S. #1: 22

45. Bartosz R. #1: 16

45. Jay H. #1: 16

47. Bartosz R. #2: 4

48. Ally H.: -9

49. Ben S. #2: -13

50. Dan Du.: -14

51. Marc R.: -15

52. Ben S. #3: -18

53. Joel S. #5: -22

54. Joel S. #3: -70

55. Damien R. #1: -86

56. Sally R.: -109

57. Ashley D.: -208

58. Mindi W.: -261

Remember that if your name is in red, that means that you are mathematically eliminated from any payout in the pool.  Grant looks pretty good with a 43 point lead on the field, but he has already used 86.59% of all available points, so he has a good chance of winning, but not the best chance at this point.

Here are the eliminations on the day:

Louisville loss:

Brent E. #3  (3rd)

Jay H. #2  (2nd)

Joel S. #5  (1st)

Klei - Consensus  (2nd, 3rd)

Memphis loss:

Brent S. (2nd)

Jay H. #1 (2nd, 3rd)

Joel S. #5 (2nd)

Marc R. (3rd)

Mike S. #1 (1st)

Mike S. #2 (3rd)

Roth W. (3rd)

Washington loss:

Becky H. (3rd)

Brad R. (1st)

Brett W. (1st)

Clucko the Chicken (1st, 2nd)

Dylan B. (1st)

Jay H. #2 (3rd)

Jim W. (1st)

Joel S. #4 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Joel S. #5 (3rd)

Kevin W. (1st)

Michelle L. #1 (2nd, 3rd)

Michelle L. #2 (1st, 2nd)

Mike S. #1 (2nd)

Myles G. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Miami-Florida loss:

Adam E. (3rd)

Brett W. (2nd, 3rd)

Dan Dz. (3rd)

Jim W. (2nd, 3rd)

Joel S. #2 (2nd)

Mike W. (1st)

Here are the probabilities after today's games:

For 1st:

1.: Scott H. #1 (32.812%)

2.: Grant F. (31.25%)

3.: Dustin B. (18.75%)

4.: Nikolajs B. (10.937%)

5.: Scott H. #2 (3.125%)

6.: Ryan W. (1.562%)

7.: Joel S. #2 (0.781%)

7.: Matt N. (0.781%)

For 2nd:

1.: Grant F. (38.281%)

2.: Nikolajs B. (15.234%)

3.: Scott H. #1 (13.281%)

4.: Scott H. #2 (8.593%)

5.: Dustin B. (7.031%)

6.: Matt N. (6.25%)

7.: Mike W. (5.468%)

8.: Ryan W. (4.687%)

9.: Dylan B. (0.781%)

10.: Brad R. (0.39%)

For 3rd:

1.: Grant F. (16.796%)

2.: Matt N. (16.406%)

3.: Nikolajs B. (12.109%)

4.: Scott H. #1 (10.937%)

5.: Mike W. (10.156%)

6.: Dustin B. (9.375%)

7.: Michelle L. #2 (5.078%)

8.: Scott H. #2 (4.687%)

9.: Mike S. #1 (3.906%)

10.: Ryan W. (3.125%)

11.: Joel S. #2 (2.343%)

12.: Kevin W. (1.562%)

13.: Brad R. (1.171%)

14.: Dylan B. (0.781%)

14.: Clucko the Chicken (0.781%)

14.: Brent S. (0.781%)

So if looks like a 2 person race for first place, although there are 4 people with greater than a 10% chance of winning at this point.  Anyone that is still mathematically alive still has a chance, but the number of ways to the championship is a lot harder for some of those people with lower probabilities.  Those people probably need to go 5/5 from here on out to win, where someone like Grant can probably afford to lose at least 1, and maybe more than 1 game and still win.

Tomorrow there are no games, so enjoy the pros finishing their season.  There are 5 games on January 1st, including the 2 national semi-final games.  Obviously, those games are really important.   Here are the single game eliminations:

Outback Bowl:

If Michigan wins:

Clucko the Chicken is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dustin B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If South Carolina wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Peach Bowl:

If Auburn wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Clucko the Chicken is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Joel S. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If UCF wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Citrus Bowl:

If Notre Dame wins:

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If LSU wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Clucko the Chicken is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Rose Bowl:

If Georgia wins:

Clucko the Chicken is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Nikolajs B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Oklahoma wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dustin B. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Sugar Bowl:

If Clemson wins:

Brent S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dylan B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If Alabama wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Clucko the Chicken is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Nikolajs B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Everyone should know the drill by now.  These are only the single game eliminations.  There will be combinations of games that knock people out of contention.  Considering that there are only 30 points available to everyone after Monday, almost everyone will be eliminated with the exception of probably 6 people (assuming no potential ties).  That means that 10 of the remaining sheets won't survive Monday.  In years past, the Championship game didn't even matter.  I think last year, the winner had sewn it all up with 3 games to go.

Anyway, I hope everyone has a happy and safe New Years!  Good luck to everyone left!