Saturday, December 23, 2017

The "Saturday Night Massacre" edition.



This marks the second day in a row that I managed to not watch a second of the college football bowls.  I swear I will at some point.  Turns out that I missed some interesting games.  Remember yesterday when I said I couldn't figure out why so many more people were taking Toledo compared to San Diego State when the two games had exactly the same point spreads?  Turns out it didn't matter at all, since both of them lost.  Honestly, it was a total bloodbath of a day in regards to the picks.  How bad was it?  No one managed to go 3/3.  We also have had 3 of the teams play that were in the top 10 for points wagered on them, and 2 of them have now lost (Toledo - 6th, San Diego State - 9th).  For more perspective, the average net points today was -31.52.  That is atrocious.  As I mentioned before, no one went 3/3.  Only 11 people went 2/3, but another 11 people managed to go 0/3 as well.  Only 9 people managed to finish the day with more net points than they had when they started the day.

So, there were some shakeups in the points, but more on the net points side.  This is primarily because not many people actually won points to make a lot of changes to the net points standings.

Remember the other day how I mentioned that Dustin B. was the only person to have 9 wins in 11 games, leading the pool.  Well, 9 is still the lead in wins, but Dustin is joined by 4 other people today, which should tell you something about hoe good Dustin's day went.  Honestly, 9/14 as the top picks is not all that great.  It's fun, but it's not that great as far as picking goes.  I love it.  It puts a premium on getting games right.  It's not that fun when someone (or everyone) is getting every game right.  Unpredictability makes this pool fun in my opinion.

So, the people that took the biggest hits today didn't get any games right.  Hal #1 & Hal #2 both netted -83 points.  Ben S. #3 and Mindi W. lost 78 points, and Ally H. lost 70 points.  I am astonished at how bad Mindi's luck has been running in this pool.  She's a total outlier this season so far.  If you look at the net points, she is in last by a long shot.  She currently is sitting at -222, and Brent E. #2 is next lowest at -108.  That's just bad luck.  No one could intentionally do this bad.  It seems like every game is a bit of a toss-up and she just can't catch a break.

There was one big winner today.  In 3rd place today was Mike W. who netted 25 points.  2nd place went to Joel S. #2 with 26 points.  Far and away the winner of the day with a whopping +56 (+60, -4) was Clucko the Chicken.  He (it?) takes over the lead in the net points, which tells you all you probably need to know about the unpredictability of this year's pool.  The aforementioned Dustin B dropped from 1st to 4th after going 0/3.  On the gross points scale, Tim N. still maintains 1st place compliments of so few points being won today.

Here are the gross points rankings:

1. Tim N.: 225 (-188)
2. Clucko the Chicken: 222 (-119)
3. Matt N.: 191 (-143)
4. Mike S. #1: 190 (-122)
5. Michelle L. #2: 190 (-144)
6. Roth W.: 189 (-181)
7. Dylan B.: 188 (-150)
8. Jim W.: 188 (-159)
9. Ally H.: 183 (-133)
10. Klei R.: 182 (-176)
11. Brad R.: 179 (-154)
12. Hutch H.: 177 (-152)
12. Michelle L. #1: 177 (-152)
14. Pete J. #2: 177 (-199)
15. Hal #2: 175 (-164)
16. Joel S. #3: 174 (-234)
17. Mike S. #2: 173 (-155)
18. Pete J. #1: 171 (-205)
19. Adam E.: 163 (-133)
20. Mike W.: 160 (-64)
21. Joel S. #2: 160 (-92)
22. Sanjay T.: 157 (-176)
23. Ashley D.: 155 (-164)
24. Dustin B.: 153 (-73)
25. Hal #1: 152 (-181)
26. Joel S. #4: 149 (-61)
27. Sally R.: 149 (-96)
28. Damien R. #1: 144 (-172)
29. Becky H.: 139 (-137)
30. Ben S. #1: 138 (-122)
31. Kevin W.: 137 (-160)
32. Brent S.: 134 (-156)
33. Grant F.: 132 (-108)
34. Ben S. #2: 131 (-131)
35. Brent E. #1: 130 (-191)
36. Marc R.: 125 (-121)
37. Damien R. #2: 121 (-119)
38. Brent E. #3: 121 (-167)
39. Ben S. #3: 120 (-128)
40. Dan Du.: 118 (-129)
41. Klei - Consensus: 117 (-208)
42. Jay H. #3: 115 (-70)
43. Jay H. #1: 115 (-74)
44. Scott H. #1: 114 (-61)
45. Brett W.: 110 (-45)
46. Ryan W.: 110 (-110)
47. Brent E. #2: 94 (-202)
48. Scott H. #2: 80 (-112)
49. Myles G.: 79 (-111)
50. Joel S. #5: 77 (-73)
51. Bartosz R. #1: 77 (-153)
52. Bartosz R. #2: 77 (-159)
53. Joel S. #1: 64 (-86)
54. Jay H. #2: 63 (-121)
55. Mindi W.: 55 (-277)
56. Nikolajs B.: 52 (-53)
57. Nichole W.: 46 (-74)
58. Dan Dz.: 26 (-79)

and the net points rankings:

1. Clucko the Chicken: 103
2. Mike W.: 96
3. Joel S. #4: 88
4. Dustin B.: 80
5. Mike S. #1: 68
5. Joel S. #2: 68
7. Brett W.: 65
8. Sally R.: 53
8. Scott H. #1: 53
10. Ally H.: 50
11. Matt N.: 48
12. Michelle L. #2: 46
13. Jay H. #3: 45
14. Jay H. #1: 41
15. Dylan B.: 38
16. Tim N.: 37
17. Adam E.: 30
18. Jim W.: 29
19. Brad R.: 25
19. Hutch H.: 25
19. Michelle L. #1: 25
22. Grant F.: 24
23. Mike S. #2: 18
24. Ben S. #1: 16
25. Hal #2: 11
26. Roth W.: 8
27. Klei R.: 6
28. Marc R.: 4
28. Joel S. #5: 4
30. Becky H.: 2
30. Damien R. #2: 2
32. Ben S. #2: 0
32. Ryan W.: 0
34. Nikolajs B.: -1
35. Ben S. #3: -8
36. Ashley D.: -9
37. Dan Du.: -11
38. Sanjay T.: -19
39. Pete J. #2: -22
39. Brent S.: -22
39. Joel S. #1: -22
42. Kevin W.: -23
43. Damien R. #1: -28
43. Nichole W.: -28
45. Hal #1: -29
46. Scott H. #2: -32
46. Myles G.: -32
48. Pete J. #1: -34
49. Brent E. #3: -46
50. Dan Dz.: -53
51. Jay H. #2: -58
52. Joel S. #3: -60
53. Brent E. #1: -61
54. Bartosz R. #1: -76
55. Bartosz R. #2: -82
56. Klei - Consensus: -91
57. Brent E. #2: -108
58. Mindi W.: -222


Well, after 5 games in 2 days, we get a bit of a break as there is only game tomorrow, and it's not for many points.  It's actually the 2nd lowest point wagered game left on the schedule (37th overall).  So, I think you can wrap presents, talk to your family or go wassailing, whatever your holiday tradition, and maybe have the game on in the background.  Here are the particulars:


Vegas Line: Houston (-1.5)
Median: Fresno State for 7 points
Mean: Fresno State for 5.2 points
Picks for Fresno State: 36 (Average: 16.25 points)
Points for Fresno State: 585 (38th overall)
Picks for Houston: 22 (Average: 12.82 points)
Points for Houston: 282 (58th overall)
People with Fresno State as a top 10 pick: 1 (Joel S. #4)
People with Houston as a Top 10 pick: 0

Wow, only one person has this game as a top 10 pick.  I guess with a line like 1.5, it's hard to go too hard on this game.  Something I find amusing is that the point spread has flipped.  When the games were originally announced, the spread was Fresno State (-3), but now it's Houston (-1.5).  I almost guarantee that's why so many people took Fresno State in this one.  God knows no one really knows anything about either of these schools.

Good luck to everyone!!!!

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