Thursday, December 28, 2017

Initial 1st place odds and single game eliminations for tomorrow



Okay.  i have the initial probabilities of winning this pool.  First we have to bid adieu to 18 entries that cannot win this pool under any circumstances.  Either they are too far behind, or every combination of wins would put them in at least 2nd place.  I haven't figured the odds for 2nd or 3rd yet, so some of these are probably still alive for that.  Here are the people that can't win:

Ashley D.
Bartosz R. #1
Bartosz R. #2
Ben S. #1
Ben S. #3
Brent E. #1
Brent E. #2
Brent E. #3
Brent S.
Damien R. #1
Damien R. #2
Hal #1
Hal #2
Hutch H.
Joel S. #3
Mindi W.
Pete J. #1
Sanjay T.


Rough go from Brent E. this year.  He's usually a contender in these things every year, so it will be strange not to see him at the top of the standings.

Here are the initial odds for 1st place so far:

1.: Dustin B. (19.693%)
2.: Grant F. (14.427%)
3.: Mike W. (11.029%)
4.: Brett W. (9.22%)
5.: Joel S. #2 (7.882%)
6.: Scott H. #1 (6.676%)
7.: Clucko the Chicken (5.316%)
8.: Nichole W. (5.036%)
9.: Scott H. #2 (3.999%)
10.: Brad R. (3.37%)
11.: Joel S. #5 (2.578%)
12.: Nikolajs B. (1.704%)
13.: Marc R. (1.407%)
14.: Jay H. #1 (0.994%)
15.: Mike S. #1 (0.909%)
16.: Adam E. (0.859%)
17.: Myles G. (0.753%)
18.: Michelle L. #2 (0.73%)
19.: Jay H. #3 (0.569%)
20.: Dylan B. (0.454%)
21.: Klei R. (0.433%)
22.: Matt N. (0.348%)
23.: Jim W. (0.32%)
24.: Dan Dz. (0.304%)
25.: Joel S. #1 (0.292%)
26.: Ryan W. (0.229%)
27.: Roth W. (0.071%)
28.: Michelle L. #1 (0.069%)
29.: Dan Du. (0.06%)
30.: Ally H. (0.045%)
31.: Ben S. #2 (0.044%)
32.: Becky H. (0.042%)
33.: Mike S. #2 (0.031%)
34.: Jay H. #2 (0.026%)
35.: Sally R. (0.025%)
36.: Pete J. #2 (0.013%)
37.: Joel S. #4 (0.009%)
38.: Klei - Consensus (0.007%)
39.: Tim N. (0.006%)
40.: Kevin W. (0.001%)


As I always say, you've got a chance in this thing until your number is zero, so even those entries at the bottom are still not dead.  Keep the faith.  Someone is going to need a lot of games to go their way in order to win this thing and it might just be you.

I figure I'll do the single game eliminations for 1st place now.  I'll save the 2nd and 3rd place rankings and eliminations for later.  I think most people care most about whether they can win or not anyway.  Remember that these are the single game eliminations.  Some combination of losses could also knock you out.  I'll review those at the end of the day tomorrow, so you know who to blame for your sheet getting knocked out.

Belk Bowl:

If Wake Forest wins:
Ben S. #2
Klei R.
Mike S. #2

If Texas A&M wins:
Dan Du.
Jay H. #2
Joel S. #4
Kevin W.
Klei - Consensus
Pete J. #2
Tim N.


Sun Bowl:

If Arizona State wins:
Kevin W.
Klei - Consensus

If NC State wins:
Becky H.
Sally R.
Tim N.


Music City Bowl:

If Kentucky wins:
Kevin W.

If Northwestern Wins:
Ally H.
Jay H. #2
Tim N.


Arizona Bowl:

If Utah State wins:
Becky H.
Joel S. #4
Kevin W.
Tim N.

If New Mexico State wins:
Ally H.
Michelle L. #1
Mike S. #2
Sally R.


Cotton Bowl:

If USC wins:
Ally H.
Jay H. #2
Kevin W.

If Ohio State wins:
Ben S. #2
Dan Du.
Joel S. #1
Klei - Consensus
Pete J. #2
Roth W.
Sally R.


That's it.  Those are the single game eliminations for 1st place only.  I still have some number crunching to do in order to figure out 2nd and 3rd, but I'll see how far I get tonight and send out what I can.  Tomorrow promises to be a bloodbath all the way around as 5 games are going off.  The NCAA is killing me with all of these games on one day....  More later.  Good luck!!!

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