Great. All the games
are over for the day, and I can start calculating some odds. For those unfamiliar with the scheme, I'll
still keep score and provide updates that way, but I'm more concerned with
probabilities of winning. I've generated
every possible scenario and figured out everyone's score in all of those
scenarios, so I can calculate if/how all the sheets can still win. Remember that this assumes that every game is
essentially a coin flip, which isn't quite accurate, but you'll get the idea.
Anyway, here are the standings in gross points:
1.
Grant F.: 382 (-124)
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2.
Tim N.: 380 (-282)
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3.
Joel S. #2: 366 (-152)
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4.
Dylan B.: 364 (-191)
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5.
Klei R.: 362 (-214)
|
6.
Brad R.: 359 (-216)
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7.
Mike W.: 358 (-116)
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8.
Roth W.: 354 (-209)
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9.
Clucko the Chicken: 349 (-203)
|
10.
Matt N.: 345 (-196)
|
11.
Mike S. #1: 344 (-160)
|
12.
Jim W.: 332 (-195)
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13.
Michelle L. #2: 328 (-188)
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14.
Dustin B.: 326 (-93)
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15.
Brent E. #3: 326 (-209)
|
16.
Adam E.: 318 (-185)
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17.
Mike S. #2: 318 (-189)
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18.
Pete J. #2: 314 (-243)
|
19.
Brett W.: 309 (-125)
|
20.
Hal #2: 308 (-226)
|
21.
Pete J. #1: 308 (-249)
|
22.
Scott H. #2: 305 (-144)
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23.
Ryan W.: 298 (-183)
|
24.
Michelle L. #1: 298 (-201)
|
25.
Klei - Consensus: 297 (-209)
|
26.
Hutch H.: 294 (-228)
|
27.
Scott H. #1: 289 (-104)
|
28.
Brent E. #1: 288 (-225)
|
29.
Ally H.: 287 (-261)
|
30.
Joel S. #3: 282 (-322)
|
31.
Damien R. #2: 277 (-191)
|
32.
Brent S.: 276 (-188)
|
33.
Hal #1: 269 (-255)
|
34.
Brent E. #2: 267 (-261)
|
35.
Sanjay T.: 266 (-224)
|
36.
Kevin W.: 264 (-234)
|
37.
Becky H.: 264 (-247)
|
38.
Ashley D.: 263 (-356)
|
39.
Ben S. #1: 255 (-204)
|
40.
Damien R. #1: 248 (-362)
|
41.
Ben S. #2: 245 (-232)
|
42.
Nichole W.: 242 (-114)
|
43.
Nikolajs B.: 239 (-112)
|
44.
Jay H. #3: 235 (-178)
|
45.
Myles G.: 234 (-185)
|
46.
Marc R.: 231 (-178)
|
47.
Joel S. #4: 231 (-198)
|
48.
Ben S. #3: 230 (-241)
|
49.
Dan Du.: 225 (-254)
|
50.
Sally R.: 212 (-283)
|
51.
Joel S. #5: 211 (-142)
|
52.
Jay H. #2: 211 (-262)
|
53.
Joel S. #1: 207 (-146)
|
54.
Jay H. #1: 197 (-154)
|
55.
Bartosz R. #1: 183 (-306)
|
56.
Bartosz R. #2: 183 (-312)
|
57.
Dan Dz.: 169 (-182)
|
58.
Mindi W.: 152 (-388)
|
...and in net points:
1. Grant F.: 258
|
2. Mike W.: 242
|
3. Dustin B.: 233
|
4. Joel S. #2: 214
|
5. Scott H. #1: 185
|
6. Mike S. #1: 184
|
6. Brett W.: 184
|
8. Dylan B.: 173
|
9. Scott H. #2: 161
|
10. Matt N.: 149
|
11. Klei R.: 148
|
12. Clucko the Chicken: 146
|
13. Roth W.: 145
|
14. Brad R.: 143
|
15. Michelle L. #2: 140
|
16. Jim W.: 137
|
17. Adam E.: 133
|
18. Mike S. #2: 129
|
19. Nichole W.: 128
|
20. Nikolajs B.: 127
|
21. Brent E. #3: 117
|
22. Ryan W.: 115
|
23. Tim N.: 98
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24. Michelle L. #1: 97
|
25. Klei - Consensus: 88
|
25. Brent S.: 88
|
27. Damien R. #2: 86
|
28. Hal #2: 82
|
29. Pete J. #2: 71
|
30. Joel S. #5: 69
|
31. Hutch H.: 66
|
32. Brent E. #1: 63
|
33. Joel S. #1: 61
|
34. Pete J. #1: 59
|
35. Jay H. #3: 57
|
36. Marc R.: 53
|
37. Ben S. #1: 51
|
38. Myles G.: 49
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39. Jay H. #1: 43
|
40. Sanjay T.: 42
|
41. Joel S. #4: 33
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42. Kevin W.: 30
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43. Ally H.: 26
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44. Becky H.: 17
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45. Hal #1: 14
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46. Ben S. #2: 13
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47. Brent E. #2: 6
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48. Ben S. #3: -11
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49. Dan Dz.: -13
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50. Dan Du.: -29
|
51. Joel S. #3: -40
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52. Jay H. #2: -51
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53. Sally R.: -71
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54. Ashley D.: -93
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55. Damien R. #1: -114
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56. Bartosz R. #1: -123
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57. Bartosz R. #2: -129
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58. Mindi W.: -236
|
I'll be back later with initial odds for 1st place.
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