Thursday, December 28, 2017

Points standings before initial probabilities



Great.  All the games are over for the day, and I can start calculating some odds.  For those unfamiliar with the scheme, I'll still keep score and provide updates that way, but I'm more concerned with probabilities of winning.  I've generated every possible scenario and figured out everyone's score in all of those scenarios, so I can calculate if/how all the sheets can still win.  Remember that this assumes that every game is essentially a coin flip, which isn't quite accurate, but you'll get the idea.

Anyway, here are the standings in gross points:

1. Grant F.: 382 (-124)
2. Tim N.: 380 (-282)
3. Joel S. #2: 366 (-152)
4. Dylan B.: 364 (-191)
5. Klei R.: 362 (-214)
6. Brad R.: 359 (-216)
7. Mike W.: 358 (-116)
8. Roth W.: 354 (-209)
9. Clucko the Chicken: 349 (-203)
10. Matt N.: 345 (-196)
11. Mike S. #1: 344 (-160)
12. Jim W.: 332 (-195)
13. Michelle L. #2: 328 (-188)
14. Dustin B.: 326 (-93)
15. Brent E. #3: 326 (-209)
16. Adam E.: 318 (-185)
17. Mike S. #2: 318 (-189)
18. Pete J. #2: 314 (-243)
19. Brett W.: 309 (-125)
20. Hal #2: 308 (-226)
21. Pete J. #1: 308 (-249)
22. Scott H. #2: 305 (-144)
23. Ryan W.: 298 (-183)
24. Michelle L. #1: 298 (-201)
25. Klei - Consensus: 297 (-209)
26. Hutch H.: 294 (-228)
27. Scott H. #1: 289 (-104)
28. Brent E. #1: 288 (-225)
29. Ally H.: 287 (-261)
30. Joel S. #3: 282 (-322)
31. Damien R. #2: 277 (-191)
32. Brent S.: 276 (-188)
33. Hal #1: 269 (-255)
34. Brent E. #2: 267 (-261)
35. Sanjay T.: 266 (-224)
36. Kevin W.: 264 (-234)
37. Becky H.: 264 (-247)
38. Ashley D.: 263 (-356)
39. Ben S. #1: 255 (-204)
40. Damien R. #1: 248 (-362)
41. Ben S. #2: 245 (-232)
42. Nichole W.: 242 (-114)
43. Nikolajs B.: 239 (-112)
44. Jay H. #3: 235 (-178)
45. Myles G.: 234 (-185)
46. Marc R.: 231 (-178)
47. Joel S. #4: 231 (-198)
48. Ben S. #3: 230 (-241)
49. Dan Du.: 225 (-254)
50. Sally R.: 212 (-283)
51. Joel S. #5: 211 (-142)
52. Jay H. #2: 211 (-262)
53. Joel S. #1: 207 (-146)
54. Jay H. #1: 197 (-154)
55. Bartosz R. #1: 183 (-306)
56. Bartosz R. #2: 183 (-312)
57. Dan Dz.: 169 (-182)
58. Mindi W.: 152 (-388)


...and in net points:

1. Grant F.: 258
2. Mike W.: 242
3. Dustin B.: 233
4. Joel S. #2: 214
5. Scott H. #1: 185
6. Mike S. #1: 184
6. Brett W.: 184
8. Dylan B.: 173
9. Scott H. #2: 161
10. Matt N.: 149
11. Klei R.: 148
12. Clucko the Chicken: 146
13. Roth W.: 145
14. Brad R.: 143
15. Michelle L. #2: 140
16. Jim W.: 137
17. Adam E.: 133
18. Mike S. #2: 129
19. Nichole W.: 128
20. Nikolajs B.: 127
21. Brent E. #3: 117
22. Ryan W.: 115
23. Tim N.: 98
24. Michelle L. #1: 97
25. Klei - Consensus: 88
25. Brent S.: 88
27. Damien R. #2: 86
28. Hal #2: 82
29. Pete J. #2: 71
30. Joel S. #5: 69
31. Hutch H.: 66
32. Brent E. #1: 63
33. Joel S. #1: 61
34. Pete J. #1: 59
35. Jay H. #3: 57
36. Marc R.: 53
37. Ben S. #1: 51
38. Myles G.: 49
39. Jay H. #1: 43
40. Sanjay T.: 42
41. Joel S. #4: 33
42. Kevin W.: 30
43. Ally H.: 26
44. Becky H.: 17
45. Hal #1: 14
46. Ben S. #2: 13
47. Brent E. #2: 6
48. Ben S. #3: -11
49. Dan Dz.: -13
50. Dan Du.: -29
51. Joel S. #3: -40
52. Jay H. #2: -51
53. Sally R.: -71
54. Ashley D.: -93
55. Damien R. #1: -114
56. Bartosz R. #1: -123
57. Bartosz R. #2: -129
58. Mindi W.: -236


I'll be back later with initial odds for 1st place.

No comments:

Post a Comment