Stats and more stats

Good evening.  We had some pretty good games today.  We even had one upset, although that really means that the 8 of the last 9 games went to the favorites.  That's a little boring, but at least the games were pretty exciting, and that counts for something.

Unfortunately, the fact that there were 5 games today means that we had a whole run of eliminations.  There are 26 of the 58 entries after today that can't win anything.  Here's a rundown of who was eliminated in what game:

Because Texas A&M lost:

Ashley D.  (3rd)

Ben S. #1  (2nd, 3rd)

Ben S. #2  (1st, 2nd)

Ben S. #3  (3rd)

Damien R. #2  (2nd)

Hutch H.  (3rd)

Klei R.  (1st)

Mike S. #2  (1st)

Because Arizona State lost:

Becky H.  (1st)

Brent E. #3  (2nd)

Jay H. #1  (1st)

Klei R.  (2nd, 3rd)

Sally R.  (1st)

Sanjay T.  (2nd, 3rd)

Tim N.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Because Kentucky lost:

Ally H.  (2nd, 3rd)

Jay H. #2  (1st)

Jay H. #3  (1st)

Sally R.  (2nd)

Because Utah State lost:

Ben S. #2  (3rd)

Damien R. #2  (3rd)

Hal #2  (3rd)

Jay H. #3  (2nd, 3rd)

Kevin W.  (2nd)

Michelle L. #1  (1st)

Mike S. #2  (2nd)

Nichole W.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Sally R.  (3rd)

Because USC lost:

Adam E.  (1st, 2nd)

Becky H.  (2nd)

Dan Du.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Dan Dz.  (1st, 2nd)

Joel S. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Klei - Consensus  (1st)

Marc R.  (1st, 2nd)

Pete J. #2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Roth W.  (1st, 2nd)

Here are the points standings.  If you are eliminated from all payouts, I made your name red:

1. Grant F.: 494 (-133)

2. Dylan B.: 490 (-191)

3. Jim W.: 468 (-195)

4. Mike W.: 461 (-136)

5. Joel S. #2: 448 (-210)

6. Clucko the Chicken: 448 (-256)

7. Mike S. #1: 438 (-176)

8. Roth W.: 430 (-227)

9. Tim N.: 421 (-294)

10. Michelle L. #2: 420 (-205)

11. Matt N.: 417 (-212)

12. Brad R.: 415 (-232)

13. Mike S. #2: 415 (-233)

14. Brent E. #3: 414 (-229)

15. Hal #2: 406 (-243)

16. Klei R.: 405 (-266)

17. Michelle L. #1: 404 (-226)

18. Pete J. #1: 404 (-265)

19. Pete J. #2: 399 (-270)

20. Dustin B.: 398 (-131)

21. Scott H. #1: 396 (-125)

22. Scott H. #2: 395 (-175)

23. Hutch H.: 393 (-250)

24. Kevin W.: 390 (-249)

25. Damien R. #2: 385 (-235)

26. Klei - Consensus: 380 (-224)

27. Brent S.: 377 (-191)

28. Brent E. #1: 371 (-232)

29. Adam E.: 368 (-218)

30. Hal #1: 367 (-272)

31. Brett W.: 362 (-190)

32. Ryan W.: 362 (-197)

33. Nikolajs B.: 354 (-142)

34. Becky H.: 350 (-247)

35. Ben S. #1: 348 (-261)

36. Brent E. #2: 341 (-262)

37. Joel S. #4: 338 (-208)

38. Myles G.: 338 (-245)

39. Sanjay T.: 329 (-275)

40. Jay H. #2: 326 (-288)

41. Ben S. #3: 326 (-301)

42. Ally H.: 323 (-321)

43. Damien R. #1: 321 (-401)

44. Ben S. #2: 314 (-310)

45. Bartosz R. #1: 309 (-306)

46. Joel S. #3: 305 (-392)

47. Bartosz R. #2: 304 (-312)

48. Dan Du.: 287 (-307)

49. Jay H. #3: 285 (-237)

50. Marc R.: 285 (-246)

51. Nichole W.: 282 (-224)

52. Ashley D.: 270 (-439)

53. Joel S. #5: 269 (-227)

54. Joel S. #1: 265 (-231)

55. Dan Dz.: 260 (-249)

56. Jay H. #1: 257 (-239)

57. Sally R.: 239 (-356)

58. Mindi W.: 162 (-467)

...and the net points rankings:

1. Grant F.: 361

2. Mike W.: 325

3. Dylan B.: 299

4. Jim W.: 273

5. Scott H. #1: 271

6. Dustin B.: 267

7. Mike S. #1: 262

8. Joel S. #2: 238

9. Scott H. #2: 220

10. Michelle L. #2: 215

11. Nikolajs B.: 212

12. Matt N.: 205

13. Roth W.: 203

14. Clucko the Chicken: 192

15. Brent S.: 186

16. Brent E. #3: 185

17. Brad R.: 183

18. Mike S. #2: 182

19. Michelle L. #1: 178

20. Brett W.: 172

21. Ryan W.: 165

22. Hal #2: 163

23. Klei - Consensus: 156

24. Damien R. #2: 150

24. Adam E.: 150

26. Hutch H.: 143

27. Kevin W.: 141

28. Klei R.: 139

28. Pete J. #1: 139

28. Brent E. #1: 139

31. Joel S. #4: 130

32. Pete J. #2: 129

33. Tim N.: 127

34. Becky H.: 103

35. Hal #1: 95

36. Myles G.: 93

37. Ben S. #1: 87

38. Brent E. #2: 79

39. Nichole W.: 58

40. Sanjay T.: 54

41. Jay H. #3: 48

42. Joel S. #5: 42

43. Marc R.: 39

44. Jay H. #2: 38

45. Joel S. #1: 34

46. Ben S. #3: 25

47. Jay H. #1: 18

48. Dan Dz.: 11

49. Ben S. #2: 4

50. Bartosz R. #1: 3

51. Ally H.: 2

52. Bartosz R. #2: -8

53. Dan Du.: -20

54. Damien R. #1: -80

55. Joel S. #3: -87

56. Sally R.: -117

57. Ashley D.: -169

58. Mindi W.: -305

You can kind of see how much the net points does a better job of predicting who will be left alive.  You have to get down to #22 before you find someone that can't win anything, where Tim N. is in 9th overall in points, and can't win anything.

Speaking of odds, here are the probabilities for 1st as of today:

1.: Grant F. (38.566%)

2.: Mike W. (16.87%)

3.: Dustin B. (14.575%)

4.: Scott H. #1 (11.197%)

5.: Dylan B. (4.589%)

6.: Nikolajs B. (2.514%)

7.: Brett W. (2.335%)

8.: Jim W. (2.294%)

9.: Michelle L. #2 (1.538%)

10.: Scott H. #2 (1.464%)

11.: Brad R. (1.44%)

12.: Joel S. #2 (1.269%)

13.: Ryan W. (0.341%)

14.: Mike S. #1 (0.292%)

15.: Clucko the Chicken (0.268%)

16.: Joel S. #4 (0.146%)

17.: Joel S. #5 (0.097%)

17.: Myles G. (0.097%)

19.: Matt N. (0.048%)

19.: Kevin W. (0.048%)

...and 2nd place:

1.: Grant F. (24.869%)

2.: Mike W. (18.839%)

3.: Dylan B. (9.602%)

4.: Dustin B. (9.049%)

5.: Scott H. #1 (6.453%)

6.: Jim W. (5.037%)

7.: Scott H. #2 (4.825%)

8.: Mike S. #1 (4.101%)

9.: Brad R. (3.58%)

9.: Nikolajs B. (3.58%)

11.: Michelle L. #2 (2.262%)

12.: Joel S. #2 (1.879%)

13.: Brett W. (1.725%)

14.: Ryan W. (1.196%)

15.: Clucko the Chicken (0.854%)

16.: Matt N. (0.61%)

17.: Joel S. #5 (0.292%)

18.: Brent S. (0.268%)

19.: Michelle L. #1 (0.26%)

20.: Joel S. #4 (0.195%)

21.: Myles G. (0.17%)

22.: Klei - Consensus (0.146%)

22.: Jay H. #1 (0.146%)

24.: Jay H. #2 (0.048%)

...and 3rd place:

1.: Mike W. (16.113%)

2.: Grant F. (13.077%)

3.: Dylan B. (11.743%)

4.: Jim W. (9.187%)

5.: Mike S. #1 (7.755%)

6.: Scott H. #1 (7.332%)

7.: Dustin B. (7.063%)

8.: Nikolajs B. (4.622%)

9.: Scott H. #2 (3.849%)

10.: Brad R. (3.71%)

11.: Michelle L. #2 (3.507%)

12.: Joel S. #2 (2.709%)

13.: Brett W. (1.717%)

14.: Matt N. (1.562%)

15.: Brent S. (1.424%)

16.: Ryan W. (1.22%)

17.: Clucko the Chicken (0.781%)

18.: Adam E. (0.39%)

19.: Michelle L. #1 (0.358%)

20.: Mike S. #2 (0.341%)

21.: Joel S. #5 (0.317%)

22.: Marc R. (0.195%)

22.: Myles G. (0.195%)

24.: Joel S. #4 (0.17%)

25.: Kevin W. (0.162%)

26.: Jay H. #2 (0.146%)

27.: Dan Dz. (0.097%)

27.: Becky H. (0.097%)

29.: Klei - Consensus (0.048%)

29.: Jay H. #1 (0.048%)

31.: Roth W. (0.024%)

31.: Brent E. #3 (0.024%)

It was a good day for Grant F.  He started the day with a 14.427% chance of winning the pool, and finished the day with 38.566%.  He is a good 20% clear of the sheet with the second best chance of winning.  That's a good position to be in with about a quarter of the games to go.

But there are another 4 games tomorrow, and I have eliminations for everyone.  Here we go:

TaxSlayer Bowl:

If Louisville wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dan Dz. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Myles G. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Roth W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Mississippi State wins:

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Joel S. #5 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Klei - Consensus is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Liberty Bowl:

If Iowa State wins:

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #5 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Klei - Consensus is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Roth W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Memphis wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Clucko the Chicken is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dan Dz. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #4 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Klei - Consensus is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Myles G. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Nikolajs B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Fiesta Bowl:

If Washington wins:

Dan Dz. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Klei - Consensus is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Penn State wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Clucko the Chicken is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #4 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #5 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Myles G. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Roth W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Orange Bowl:

If Miami-Florida wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #4 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Joel S. #5 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Klei - Consensus is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Roth W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Wisconsin wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dan Dz. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Myles G. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

It looks like there is definitely a "good" side and a "bad" side to every game.  Every game has a team where not many people get knocked out if they win, and another one that looks like a total bloodbath.  I'm going to predict that at least one of those bloodbaths will happen.  Maybe more than one.  That would be fun.

As always, these are just single game eliminations.  Combinations of games could knock you out throughout the day.  Enjoy the game everyone!!!