Thursday, December 28, 2017

2nd place probabilities



OK.  I was able to crank out 2nd place probabilities.  Remember that that these are the probabilities of winning 2nd place.  This is not the same as having the 2nd best probability of winning 1st.

Here are the people that can't win 2nd place:

Ashley D.
Bartosz R. #1
Bartosz R. #2
Ben S. #3
Brent E. #1
Brent E. #2
Damien R. #1
Hal #1
Hal #2
Hutch H.
Joel S. #3
Mindi W.
Pete J. #1


...and the probabilities for 2nd place:

1.: Grant F. (15.917%)
2.: Mike W. (11.618%)
3.: Dustin B. (10.082%)
4.: Joel S. #2 (9.33%)
5.: Brett W. (6.852%)
6.: Scott H. #1 (5.884%)
7.: Scott H. #2 (4.637%)
8.: Clucko the Chicken (4.405%)
9.: Brad R. (4.254%)
10.: Nichole W. (3.943%)
11.: Mike S. #1 (3.046%)
12.: Nikolajs B. (2.336%)
13.: Joel S. #5 (2.06%)
14.: Adam E. (1.782%)
15.: Jay H. #1 (1.526%)
16.: Michelle L. #2 (1.364%)
17.: Marc R. (1.36%)
18.: Dylan B. (1.354%)
19.: Ryan W. (1.103%)
20.: Myles G. (1.051%)
21.: Matt N. (1%)
22.: Klei R. (0.962%)
23.: Jim W. (0.834%)
24.: Joel S. #1 (0.73%)
25.: Jay H. #3 (0.681%)
26.: Dan Dz. (0.434%)
27.: Mike S. #2 (0.251%)
28.: Roth W. (0.17%)
29.: Michelle L. #1 (0.146%)
30.: Ally H. (0.115%)
31.: Dan Du. (0.111%)
32.: Jay H. #2 (0.09%)
33.: Joel S. #4 (0.089%)
34.: Brent E. #3 (0.085%)
35.: Becky H. (0.081%)
36.: Sally R. (0.057%)
37.: Ben S. #2 (0.05%)
38.: Tim N. (0.046%)
39.: Pete J. #2 (0.034%)
40.: Brent S. (0.033%)
41.: Klei - Consensus (0.027%)
42.: Damien R. #2 (0.022%)
43.: Sanjay T. (0.018%)
44.: Kevin W. (0.009%)
45.: Ben S. #1 (0.001%)

I'm not doing the eliminations.  I also probably won't get to 3rd place tonight.  Each place takes more computing power and longer to calculate, so it's getting too late to finish 3rd place.  I'll have it tomorrow, but since there are 5 games a lot of people are going to get knocked out of 3rd place along the way.  I'll have a complete rundown.

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