Saturday, December 16, 2017

2 games in on Day 1



Good afternoon everyone.  I took the early afternoon off from watching football and went to the movies, although I didn't see the new Star Wars movie yet.  All the theaters were sold out by the time I thought about going.  Anyway, the first 2 games went to form, with no upsets, although I was a little scared when North Carolina A&T didn't score on 4th and goal in the 4th quarter of a tie game.  I didn't watch any of the New Orleans Bowl, but it looks like Troy pulled away in the 3rd quarter.

The good news for the pool is that there are only 3 people that don't have any points as of right now.  That means virtually everyone has some points.  Here are the gross points rankings after 2 games:

1. Klei - Consensus: 74 (0)
2. Klei R.: 73 (0)
3. Clucko the Chicken: 72 (0)
4. Dylan B.: 68 (0)
5. Roth W.: 67 (0)
6. Matt N.: 65 (0)
7. Sanjay T.: 61 (0)
8. Grant F.: 60 (0)
9. Pete J. #1: 57 (0)
9. Pete J. #2: 57 (0)
9. Hal #1: 57 (0)
9. Hal #2: 57 (0)
9. Michelle L. #1: 57 (0)
14. Brent S.: 56 (0)
14. Michelle L. #2: 56 (0)
16. Ally H.: 54 (0)
17. Hutch H.: 53 (0)
18. Mike S. #2: 49 (0)
19. Mike W.: 45 (0)
20. Dustin B.: 41 (0)
21. Adam E.: 40 (0)
22. Brad R.: 40 (-21)
23. Jay H. #1: 39 (0)
23. Jay H. #3: 39 (0)
25. Dan Du.: 35 (0)
26. Mike S. #1: 35 (-8)
27. Kevin W.: 34 (-1)
28. Damien R. #2: 33 (-5)
29. Tim N.: 31 (0)
30. Jim W.: 30 (-1)
31. Mindi W.: 26 (-9)
32. Brent E. #1: 23 (-11)
33. Brent E. #3: 22 (-2)
34. Becky H.: 19 (0)
35. Damien R. #1: 18 (-14)
36. Brent E. #2: 17 (-7)
37. Myles G.: 15 (0)
38. Marc R.: 12 (-1)
39. Ashley D.: 11 (-13)
40. Ben S. #3: 7 (0)
41. Dan Dz.: 5 (-1)
42. Joel S. #3: 5 (-40)
43. Scott H. #2: 4 (0)
44. Ben S. #1: 4 (-2)
45. Brett W.: 4 (-5)
46. Joel S. #1: 3 (0)
46. Joel S. #4: 3 (0)
46. Nikolajs B.: 3 (0)
46. Scott H. #1: 3 (0)
50. Nichole W.: 3 (-1)
51. Bartosz R. #2: 2 (-11)
52. Sally R.: 2 (-14)
53. Joel S. #2: 1 (-2)
53. Joel S. #5: 1 (-2)
55. Bartosz R. #1: 1 (-11)
56. Ryan W.: 0 (-5)
56. Ben S. #2: 0 (-5)
58. Jay H. #2: 0 (-36)

...and the net points:

1. Klei - Consensus: 74
2. Klei R.: 73
3. Clucko the Chicken: 72
4. Dylan B.: 68
5. Roth W.: 67
6. Matt N.: 65
7. Sanjay T.: 61
8. Grant F.: 60
9. Pete J. #1: 57
9. Pete J. #2: 57
9. Hal #1: 57
9. Hal #2: 57
9. Michelle L. #1: 57
14. Brent S.: 56
14. Michelle L. #2: 56
16. Ally H.: 54
17. Hutch H.: 53
18. Mike S. #2: 49
19. Mike W.: 45
20. Dustin B.: 41
21. Adam E.: 40
22. Jay H. #1: 39
22. Jay H. #3: 39
24. Dan Du.: 35
25. Kevin W.: 33
26. Tim N.: 31
27. Jim W.: 29
28. Damien R. #2: 28
29. Mike S. #1: 27
30. Brent E. #3: 20
31. Brad R.: 19
31. Becky H.: 19
33. Mindi W.: 17
34. Myles G.: 15
35. Brent E. #1: 12
36. Marc R.: 11
37. Brent E. #2: 10
38. Ben S. #3: 7
39. Damien R. #1: 4
39. Dan Dz.: 4
39. Scott H. #2: 4
42. Joel S. #1: 3
42. Joel S. #4: 3
42. Nikolajs B.: 3
42. Scott H. #1: 3
46. Ben S. #1: 2
46. Nichole W.: 2
48. Brett W.: -1
48. Joel S. #2: -1
48. Joel S. #5: -1
51. Ashley D.: -2
52. Ryan W.: -5
52. Ben S. #2: -5
54. Bartosz R. #2: -9
55. Bartosz R. #1: -10
56. Sally R.: -12
57. Joel S. #3: -35
58. Jay H. #2: -36

I'm a little disturbed that the consensus rankings are doing so good.  Then again, we haven't had any upsets that people could've predicted.  I feel that's where people make up ground on the consensus rankings.  It's like forecasting the average.  You'll avoid having a bad forecast accuracy, but you also won't have a great forecast accuracy either.

So, there was another two games in quick succession, so let's go over those:

The Las Vegas Bowl:


Vegas Line: Oregon (-7.5)
Median: Oregon for 11.5 points
Mean: Oregon for 10.7 points
Picks for Oregon: 40 (Average: 21.3 points)
Points for Oregon: 852 (20th overall)
Picks for Boise State: 18 (Average: 12.83 points)
Points for Boise State: 231 (65th overall)
People with Oregon as a top 10 pick: 10
People with Boise State as a Top 10 pick: 2 (Ashley D., Brad R.)


...and here's the stats for the New Mexico Bowl:



Vegas Line: Colorado State (-5.5)
Median: Colorado State for 13 points
Mean: Colorado State for 11 points
Picks for Colorado State: 46 (Average: 18.74 points)
Points for Colorado State: 862 (19th overall)
Picks for Marshall: 12 (Average: 18.83 points)
Points for Marshall: 226 (66th overall)
People with Colorado State as a top 10 pick: 7
People with Marshall as a Top 10 pick: 4

Oddly, less people picked Marshall to win this game, but the average pick was higher.  That's strange.  Usually the team with the most picks also has the higher average points applied.

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