The - "I blame Christmas traffic for skipping a day" edition.

Hello again everyone.  First off, I want to apologize for net sending anything out yesterday.  I had a  busy few days on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  I spent the night of Christmas Eve going to the movies to see the new Star Wars movie, and then spent the rest of the night wrapping presents.  Christmas Day I spent my family in San Clemente.  Then, as we were heading home, we saw that there was a huge  car crash on the 5, where all lanes were closed, so it was going to take about 3+ hours for a trip that usually takes about 45 minutes.  We had to take a detour all the way to Riverside in order to get home at any kind of decent hour.  Needless to say, I didn't have time to send anything out.

So, I figured I'd roll the last 4 games into today's update.  The good thing is that most of the games today weren't for big points.  The Heart of Dallas bowl had the most points wagered on it, and it was only 29th in total points.  The Quick Lane, Hawaii & Cactus Bowls all were in the bottom 6 games in terms of points wagered.  That means that we've had the lowest 8 games played.  It also means that the remaining games will be worth more points, so we might see some more wild swings depending on how much people deviated from what everyone picked.  For more perspective, as a group, we aren't even 40% done as far as points wagered, so there's plenty of room to move for everyone.

In a bit of a surprise, all 4 games went to the favorite.  That's a pretty sharp deviation from what we've had so far.  That also means that everyone got at least 1 game right.  The average amount of correct guesses was 2.38 out of 4.  The average net points over the last 4 games was +16.88, which is about what you would expect from a set of chalk games.

Unfortunately, the big loser over the last few days was my Mom, Sally R.  She only managed to get 1 win and netted -62 points.  That's too bad.  I obviously want my mom to do well, and she was running in the top 10 for a while.  She went +26 on the one game and -88 on the 3 losses.  The good news is that there is a lot of games to go, so this is just a bad run, not a death blow.

As for the top end, I'm embarrassed to say that it was my sheet.  I took all chalk, but I did some strange weighting where I had a lot at risk over the last few games (Fresno State - 12, Utah - 39, Duke -37, Kansas State - 35).  That's +123 net points to take me from the middle of the pack to near the top.  I know this looks a little fishy, so I'll put my picks for the following days games at the bottom of the update every day.  I don't like the appearance that I'm rigging anything.  When I sitting in 30th place, I don't think anyone cared, but now that I'm running a little better, it's more important that I do.

Anyway, here are the new gross points standings:

1. Klei R.: 305 (-176)

2. Tim N.: 295 (-212)

3. Dylan B.: 259 (-162)

4. Roth W.: 253 (-181)

5. Clucko the Chicken: 252 (-146)

6. Michelle L. #2: 245 (-155)

7. Jim W.: 241 (-159)

8. Brad R.: 241 (-198)

9. Grant F.: 231 (-108)

10. Hal #2: 229 (-164)

11. Matt N.: 225 (-156)

12. Ally H.: 222 (-165)

13. Mike W.: 220 (-76)

14. Mike S. #1: 215 (-143)

15. Pete J. #1: 214 (-218)

16. Adam E.: 213 (-138)

17. Pete J. #2: 211 (-221)

18. Joel S. #3: 208 (-282)

19. Sanjay T.: 205 (-180)

20. Mike S. #2: 200 (-160)

21. Hutch H.: 200 (-178)

22. Hal #1: 200 (-181)

23. Michelle L. #1: 200 (-187)

24. Kevin W.: 197 (-180)

25. Joel S. #2: 193 (-118)

26. Joel S. #4: 191 (-98)

27. Damien R. #1: 188 (-238)

28. Ashley D.: 184 (-245)

29. Brent S.: 182 (-170)

30. Becky H.: 181 (-173)

31. Brent E. #3: 179 (-186)

32. Sally R.: 175 (-184)

33. Brent E. #1: 175 (-210)

34. Dustin B.: 173 (-81)

35. Ben S. #1: 171 (-131)

36. Ben S. #2: 165 (-144)

37. Klei - Consensus: 164 (-209)

38. Damien R. #2: 158 (-128)

39. Brett W.: 148 (-45)

40. Marc R.: 146 (-130)

41. Dan Du.: 143 (-158)

42. Jay H. #3: 140 (-100)

43. Scott H. #1: 137 (-88)

44. Ben S. #3: 137 (-161)

45. Brent E. #2: 133 (-230)

46. Jay H. #1: 122 (-85)

47. Joel S. #5: 122 (-91)

48. Ryan W.: 121 (-177)

49. Joel S. #1: 109 (-104)

50. Bartosz R. #1: 108 (-184)

51. Bartosz R. #2: 108 (-190)

52. Nikolajs B.: 103 (-68)

53. Myles G.: 102 (-133)

54. Scott H. #2: 91 (-144)

55. Nichole W.: 83 (-93)

56. Jay H. #2: 78 (-182)

57. Dan Dz.: 76 (-95)

58. Mindi W.: 61 (-319)

....and the net points:

1. Mike W.: 144

2. Klei R.: 129

3. Grant F.: 123

4. Clucko the Chicken: 106

5. Brett W.: 103

6. Dylan B.: 97

7. Joel S. #4: 93

8. Dustin B.: 92

9. Michelle L. #2: 90

10. Tim N.: 83

11. Jim W.: 82

12. Adam E.: 75

12. Joel S. #2: 75

14. Roth W.: 72

14. Mike S. #1: 72

16. Matt N.: 69

17. Hal #2: 65

18. Ally H.: 57

19. Scott H. #1: 49

20. Brad R.: 43

21. Mike S. #2: 40

21. Ben S. #1: 40

21. Jay H. #3: 40

24. Jay H. #1: 37

25. Nikolajs B.: 35

26. Joel S. #5: 31

27. Damien R. #2: 30

28. Sanjay T.: 25

29. Hutch H.: 22

30. Ben S. #2: 21

31. Hal #1: 19

32. Kevin W.: 17

33. Marc R.: 16

34. Michelle L. #1: 13

35. Brent S.: 12

36. Becky H.: 8

37. Joel S. #1: 5

38. Pete J. #1: -4

39. Brent E. #3: -7

40. Sally R.: -9

41. Pete J. #2: -10

41. Nichole W.: -10

43. Dan Du.: -15

44. Dan Dz.: -19

45. Ben S. #3: -24

46. Myles G.: -31

47. Brent E. #1: -35

48. Klei - Consensus: -45

49. Damien R. #1: -50

50. Scott H. #2: -53

51. Ryan W.: -56

52. Ashley D.: -61

53. Joel S. #3: -74

54. Bartosz R. #1: -76

55. Bartosz R. #2: -82

56. Brent E. #2: -97

57. Jay H. #2: -104

58. Mindi W.: -258

I was looking at the wins totals, I noticed something that I always think is a bad strategy (although if it wins, it's not).  The current leader in wins is Brett W. with 13.  He is 2 wins clear of anyone else, but because he backloaded his points,  he is 39th in total points.  He's still 5th in net points, so he can probably afford some losses later on, but I feel like he's not get rewarded for his really, really good picking because of the weights.  Like I said, if he wins, he's a genius and he can feel free to tell me I'm an idiot.  I just am not a huge fan of front-loading or back-loading the weights.

Contrary to what you may have heard on ESPN tonight, there are actually 4 games tomorrow.  The thing is: only 3 are on ESPN.  One is on Fox.  One of the games is in the top 5 for points wagered, and the rest are in the bottom half.  Here are the particulars:

Vegas Line: Florida State (-15)

Median: Florida State for 36 points

Mean: Florida State for 26.6 points

Picks for Florida State: 53 (Average: 30.28 points)

Points for Florida State: 1605 (2nd overall)

Picks for Southern Miss: 5 (Average: 12.2 points)

Points for Southern Miss: 61 (80th overall)

People with Florida State as a top 10 pick: 33

People with Southern Miss as a Top 10 pick: 0

Klei's Pick: Florida State for 22 points.

It seems like 2 things were true this Bowl season, everyone liked Florida Atlantic, and everyone also liked Florida State 2nd most.  As a matter of fact, 20/58 people had these 2 as their top 2 picks overall.  That shouldn't be too surprising.  I think these were the only two games where one team was favored by more than 2 TDs over the other.  People also really hate Southern Miss.  They were dead last in points assigned to them.  I'll be surprised if they pull an upset here, but since my pick was for less than the median, it would be good for me if they did.

The next game is the Pinstripe Bowl.  This game always seems nondescript to me.  They've been playing it for a few years, and it always features teams I don't care about playing in the snow at Yankee Stadium.  I guess it's good for New Englanders that don't get many Bowl games to go to in their neighborhood, but it doesn't do much for me.  It's the 26th in points wagered, which is good enough for 2nd on the day.  Here are the particulars:

Vegas Line: Iowa (-3)

Median: Iowa for 13.5 points

Mean: Iowa for 8.5 points

Picks for Iowa: 41 (Average: 18.8 points)

Points for Iowa: 771 (26th overall)

Picks for Boston College: 17 (Average: 16.47 points)

Points for Boston College: 280 (59th overall)

People with Iowa as a top 10 pick: 7

People with Boston College as a Top 10 pick: 1 (Joel S. #3)

Klei's Pick: Iowa for 8 points.

The 3rd game of the day is the one on Fox.  It is the Foster Farms Bowl.  I honestly have got nothing on this game or the Texas Bowl.  These two games go off at roughly the same time, and I'm pretty sure that none of the 4 teams involved are ranked, so if you happen to have a lot of points at stake or went to one of these schools or enjoy watching slightly better than mediocre football teams play, be my guest.  I'm gonna guess I'll keep an eye on them, but will be busy doing something else.  Here are the 2 games particulars:

Vegas Line: Arizona (-3.5)

Median: Arizona for 14 points

Mean: Arizona for 8.9 points

Picks for Arizona: 41 (Average: 18.73 points)

Points for Arizona: 768 (27th overall)

Picks for Purdue: 17 (Average: 14.76 points)

Points for Purdue: 251 (62nd overall)

People with Arizona as a top 10 pick: 5

People with Purdue as a Top 10 pick: 1 (Joel S. #3)

Klei's Pick: Arizona for 13 points.

Wow.  I was looking at the stats for the Foster Farms Bowl and comparing them to the Pinstripe Bowl.  These games are mirror images of one another.  Maybe that's worth looking at as a comparison / contrast.  Probably not, but I've got to find some reason to pay any attention to this game....

Here's the particulars on the last game of the day:

Vegas Line: Missouri (-2.5)

Median: Missouri for 10 points

Mean: Missouri for 5.9 points

Picks for Missouri: 41 (Average: 16.2 points)

Points for Missouri: 664 (33rd overall)

Picks for Texas: 17 (Average: 18.76 points)

Points for Texas: 319 (54th overall)

People with Missouri as a top 10 pick: 3

People with Texas as a Top 10 pick: 3

Klei's Pick: Missouri for 25 points.

I will admit that is strange to pick against Texas in the Texas Bowl, but there you have it.  I'm on the hook for 25 points in this one.  I hope that works out for me.

The average sheet has 81.36 points at risk tomorrow.  Brett W. has the most with 126.  Joel S. #4 has the least with 43.

Good luck to everyone.  4 games is a lot for one day, so there's a lot of chances in a short amount of time.  Enjoy the games!!!