The "Nothing But Blowouts" edition

I managed to watch exactly none of the two games that were played today.  I was looking at the scores, and it occurred to me that a majority of these games have been pretty terrible.  There have been 11 games played so far, and only 3 of them were decided by 7 points or less.  If you look at game decided by less than a TD, there has only been one.  The last 7 games have been decided by: 20, 10, 47, 41, 25, 35 and 23.  Those are not good games.  Are teams giving up in these games?  It's really terrible football.  I guess I don't mind, since I've only been watching these games sporadically, but if I ever decided I have time to actually watch some of these games, I'd like to think watching more than the first quarter would be worth it.

There were 2 blowout games today and 23 sheets went 2/2, compared to only 4 people that went 0/2.  The average sheet won 29.74 points and lost 8.47.  That's pretty good picking.  The three big winners of the day were Mike S. #1 (68 points), Brad R. (62 points) and Joel S. #2 (60 points).  The biggest losers in net points today were the consensus picks that I found on-line (-34), Mindi W. (-31) and Dan Dz. (-21).  I feel pretty bad for Mindi W.  I called her out earlier this week for having been snakebit so far, and today just added some more insult to that injury.  Sorry, Mindi W.  I hope you start winning some games.

There was no change at the top of the gross points rankings, as Tim N. maintains his #1 position despite finishing the day with a net point change of +1 (+29, -28).  There was a change at the top of the net points as yesterday's leader Ally H. had a -8 net point day (+25, -33) to drop to #2.  Dustin B. claims the top spot in the net points rankings due to a +33 day.  It should also be noted that he has the outright lead in games picked correctly so far with 9/11.  There are 4 people tied for 2nd with 8/11.

Here are the gross points rankings:

1. Tim N.: 198 (-125)

2. Matt N.: 191 (-96)

3. Michelle L. #2: 187 (-82)

4. Ally H.: 183 (-63)

5. Klei R.: 179 (-141)

6. Hal #2: 175 (-81)

7. Michelle L. #1: 174 (-91)

8. Jim W.: 172 (-86)

9. Hutch H.: 167 (-88)

10. Adam E.: 163 (-64)

11. Clucko the Chicken: 162 (-115)

12. Brad R.: 161 (-92)

13. Roth W.: 157 (-114)

14. Pete J. #2: 157 (-129)

15. Sanjay T.: 155 (-124)

16. Joel S. #3: 155 (-172)

17. Dustin B.: 153 (-21)

18. Mike S. #2: 153 (-98)

19. Dylan B.: 152 (-92)

20. Hal #1: 152 (-98)

21. Mike S. #1: 151 (-96)

22. Pete J. #1: 151 (-135)

23. Becky H.: 139 (-84)

24. Brent S.: 134 (-98)

25. Sally R.: 131 (-83)

26. Mike W.: 125 (-54)

27. Kevin W.: 123 (-124)

28. Grant F.: 122 (-58)

29. Ben S. #3: 120 (-50)

30. Ashley D.: 120 (-125)

31. Jay H. #3: 114 (-47)

32. Damien R. #1: 113 (-117)

33. Brent E. #1: 112 (-146)

34. Ben S. #1: 111 (-52)

35. Joel S. #4: 110 (-41)

36. Klei - Consensus: 110 (-151)

37. Damien R. #2: 109 (-79)

38. Joel S. #2: 107 (-65)

39. Jay H. #1: 106 (-59)

40. Ben S. #2: 104 (-64)

41. Brent E. #3: 98 (-123)

42. Marc R.: 97 (-96)

43. Brett W.: 93 (-20)

44. Dan Du.: 84 (-97)

45. Myles G.: 79 (-49)

46. Scott H. #1: 78 (-24)

47. Scott H. #2: 72 (-54)

48. Ryan W.: 71 (-73)

49. Bartosz R. #2: 71 (-92)

50. Bartosz R. #1: 70 (-91)

51. Brent E. #2: 70 (-141)

52. Joel S. #5: 63 (-50)

53. Mindi W.: 55 (-199)

54. Jay H. #2: 52 (-89)

55. Joel S. #1: 50 (-63)

56. Nikolajs B.: 40 (-26)

57. Nichole W.: 34 (-47)

58. Dan Dz.: 12 (-54)

...and the net points rankings:

1. Dustin B.: 132

2. Ally H.: 120

3. Michelle L. #2: 105

4. Adam E.: 99

5. Matt N.: 95

6. Hal #2: 94

7. Jim W.: 86

8. Michelle L. #1: 83

9. Hutch H.: 79

10. Tim N.: 73

10. Brett W.: 73

12. Mike W.: 71

13. Ben S. #3: 70

14. Brad R.: 69

14. Joel S. #4: 69

16. Jay H. #3: 67

17. Grant F.: 64

18. Dylan B.: 60

19. Ben S. #1: 59

20. Mike S. #2: 55

20. Mike S. #1: 55

20. Becky H.: 55

23. Hal #1: 54

23. Scott H. #1: 54

25. Sally R.: 48

26. Clucko the Chicken: 47

26. Jay H. #1: 47

28. Roth W.: 43

29. Joel S. #2: 42

30. Ben S. #2: 40

31. Klei R.: 38

32. Brent S.: 36

33. Sanjay T.: 31

34. Damien R. #2: 30

34. Myles G.: 30

36. Pete J. #2: 28

37. Scott H. #2: 18

38. Pete J. #1: 16

39. Nikolajs B.: 14

40. Joel S. #5: 13

41. Marc R.: 1

42. Kevin W.: -1

43. Ryan W.: -2

44. Damien R. #1: -4

45. Ashley D.: -5

46. Dan Du.: -13

46. Joel S. #1: -13

46. Nichole W.: -13

49. Joel S. #3: -17

50. Bartosz R. #2: -21

50. Bartosz R. #1: -21

52. Brent E. #3: -25

53. Brent E. #1: -34

54. Jay H. #2: -37

55. Klei - Consensus: -41

56. Dan Dz.: -42

57. Brent E. #2: -71

58. Mindi W.: -144

But there are 3 more games tomorrow.  Let's get to those:

We kickoff the day with the Birmingham Bowl, which, as fate would have it, is being played in Birmingham, AL.  I'm going to assume that people are going to do something (anything) other than actually watch this game.  This game is #39 in points wagered, making it easily the game no one cares about this Saturday.  Maybe everyone can watch some NFL games or wrap presents, or spend some quality time with the family.  Despite the fact that probably no one is going to watch this game, it has the chance to be the game that breaks the streak of not close games, as it the game that has the closest point spread, although that hasn't stopped other games from being total bloodbaths.  Here is the graph and the particulars:

Vegas Line: South Florda (-3)

Median: South Florida for 10 points

Mean: South Florida for 9.5 points

Picks for South Florida: 42 (Average: 16.76 points)

Points for South Florida: 704 (32nd overall)

Picks for Texas Tech: 16 (Average: 9.5 points)

Points for Texas Tech: 152 (73rd overall)

People with South Florida as a top 10 pick: 4

People with Texas Tech as a Top 10 pick: 0

Interesting thing looking at the graph.  Look at the Texas Tech side.  Nobody seems to really like them.  Texas Tech has the 2nd lowest maximum bet at 22 points.  That's not good....  The lowest is Southern Miss in the Independence Bowl.  We have the #3 team in this metric playing today in Appalachian State (26 points max).

That brings us to our 2nd game.  As it turns out, the games get steadily more meaningful as the day goes on.  This one is the Armed Forces Bowl, and it ranks out at #12 in points wagered.  I have a suspicion that part of that reason is because it features San Diego State, and since I am based in San Diego, and a lot of the people in this pool either went there or just want to root for the home town team, a lot of points were wagered.  It also helps that San Diego State is a pretty decent favorite in this game.  Here is the graph and the stats:

Vegas Line: San Diego State (-7)

Median: San Diego State for 27 points

Mean: San Diego State for 19.8 points

Picks for San Diego State: 50 (Average: 25.74 points)

Points for San Diego State: 1287 (9th overall)

Picks for Army: 8 (Average: 17 points)

Points for Army: 136 (74th overall)

People with San Diego State as a top 10 pick: 18

People with Army as a Top 10 pick: 2 (Clucko the Chicken, Ryan W.)

I'm not sure it's great company to be the other person with Clucko the Chicken to take Army for so much.

The last game of the day is the one that means the most to the most people.  The Dollar General is the Bowl game with the 9th most points wagered on it.  Here is the graph and the particulars:

Vegas Line: Toledo (-7)

Median: Toledo for 29.5 points

Mean: Toledo for 21.2 points

Picks for Toledo: 50 (Average: 27.04 points)

Points for Toledo: 1352 (6th overall)

Picks for Appalachian State: 8 (Average: 15.38 points)

Points for Appalachian State: 123 (76th overall)

People with Toledo as a top 10 pick: 26

People with Appalachian State as a Top 10 pick: 0

I have to admit to being a little baffled why everyone is so in love with Toledo.  The point spread is exactly the same as the San Diego State game, but the picks are even more skewed towards Toledo.  Do people not trust Appalachian State, or maybe can't even name what state Appalachian State is in.  Something worked on the psyche of people that made them pick Toledo more than they picked SDSU, I just can't seem to pin down what that would be.

Just for fun, here are the top 3 people that have the most at risk tomorrow: Roth W. (99 points), Ben S. #1 (97 points), Ben S, #2 (94 points), Dylan B. (94 points).  It looks like Jay H. #1 & Jay H. #3 can relax and sit back as they have the least amount of points at stake (24).

Good luck tomnorrow.  I hope the games are watcheable, although I probably will be making an assualt on Mt. El Cajon during most of the games.  I'll be back tomorrow night with a recap and a preview of the always wonderful Hawaii Bowl.